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Super League | Round 4

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • SATURDAY 7 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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STH

St Helens

2622
BRD

Bradford Bulls

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

71%

Bradford Bulls

29%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bradford Bulls. The model sees St Helens ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1589 vs 1534). Recent form favours St Helens with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts St Helens by 3.3 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.42

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens +3.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R1L
R2W
R3W

older → newer

19.6
Bradford Bulls
R1L
R2W
R3W
22.0

Avg Conceded

16.0

St Helens

14.3

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

3.6

St Helens

7.7

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

1132

St Helens

1240

Bradford Bulls

Clean Breaks

4.0

St Helens

5.0

Bradford Bulls

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1589Overall1534
BRD
ELO difference: +55 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

956Forwards899
Best: 1377STH +58Best: 1176
890Backs1024
Best: 1057BRD +135Best: 1251
872Halves934
Best: 872BRD +62Best: 934
1257Hooker1191
STH +66

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
BRD
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
19.6pts
Avg Score
22.0pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
14.3pts
3.6pts
Avg Margin
7.7pts
1132.4m
Run Metres
1239.7m
4.0
Clean Breaks
5.0
287.4
Tackles
328.7
10.0
Errors
13.3

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulls
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

71%

St Helens predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.3

4/4 match predictions correct