# St Helens v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 26 – 22 Bradford Bulls

_St Helens rally to march past Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 4 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 71% / Bradford Bulls 29% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sun, 08 Mar, 04:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Shane Wright (5' 1st), Curtis Sironen (46'), Tristan Sailor (49'), Kyle Feldt (54'), Deon Cross (75') · Bradford Bulls: Ethan Ryan (13'), Connor Wynne (21'), Connor Wynne (42'), Andy Ackers (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 71% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

St Helens 26–22 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 4 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens by 3.3 points and a 71% win probability. Final score: St Helens 26, Bradford Bulls 22, a margin of 4. Close enough to call it a good read, but the number alone doesn't tell you how ugly it got before it worked out.

At half-time Bradford led 10-4, and for a good chunk of that first forty the model's own inputs explained why. Bradford came in with the stronger backs rating, 1024 to 890, and the stronger halves, 934 to 872. That edge showed up early. Ethan Ryan levelled it at 13 minutes, Luke Hooley slotted a penalty goal, and Connor Wynne crossed to make it 4-10. Wynne struck again right on the stroke of half-time, then again just after the break, and by the 43rd minute Bradford were out to 4-16. At that point the pre-match margin looked like a rounding error.

What turned it was the stuff St Helens were rated to win. Their forward pack was the stronger unit, 956 to 899, and their hooker number was well clear too, 1257 to 1191. Both showed up when it mattered. St Helens finished with 1,279 running metres to Bradford's 967, offloaded the ball 14 times to 2, and busted 44 tackles to Bradford's 21. That's not a form line, that's a side dragging the contact area their way for eighty minutes.

The comeback itself was rapid. Curtis Sironen scored in the 46th minute, Tristan Sailor in the 49th, and by the 51st the scores were tied at 16-16. Kyle Feldt put St Helens in front at 54 minutes. Bradford levelled again through Andy Ackers at 64, with Hooley's conversion pushing them back in front 20-22, but Deon Cross settled it with a try in the 75th, converted to make it 26-22. Five tries to four for St Helens in the end, with Shane Wright the one who opened the scoring for them inside the first five minutes.

The discipline and error counts tell the rest of the story. St Helens gave the ball up 7 times to Bradford's 9, and conceded just 6 penalties to Bradford's 9. In a game that finished on a 4-point margin, those extra chances mattered. Bradford actually came into this with better form on paper, 2 wins from their last 5 to St Helens' 3, a better average score at 22 points, and more running metres per game at 1,247. None of it held up against a St Helens side that outworked them at the coalface.

As for the model, this was about as clean as it gets. The win pick landed, the margin came in at 3.3 against an actual 4, and the total score projection of 43 sat within 5 points of the real total of 48. Both picks hit. What the raw number didn't capture was the shape of the game, a Bradford side up 10-4 at the break riding their backline and halves edge, before St Helens' forward dominance and cleaner hands turned it in the second half. The final margin was almost exactly what was forecast. Getting there was a different matter entirely.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,279** | Run metres | 967 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **44** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **14** | Offloads | 2 |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 7 | Errors | 9 |
| 2 | Sin Bins | 0 |
| 0 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 71% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Helens by 3.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. St Helens trailed 4–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (37/100) — penalties St Helens 6 · Bradford Bulls 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 70.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 71% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 55 ELO points clear, 1589 to 1534. Form leans St Helens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Bradford Bulls.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 3.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back St Helens to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.3pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | 7.7pts |
| 1137.4m | Run Metres | 1247.0m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 287.4 | Tackles | 328.7 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 13.3 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 19.6 |
| Bradford Bulls | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — St Helens lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Bradford Bulls | 10 – 40 | St Helens | St Helens 63% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 5th-ranked middle attack (2.33 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 3rd there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Clark, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (3 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 5th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Blake, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th (strong)) | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2.33/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 0/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 0 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 213m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 92.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 10 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 375m/g | 575m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 23/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 0 | 0 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 337m/g | 295m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.33/g (lg 0.04) +725% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.19) +74% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.46) +46%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.45/g (lg 0.46) -2% · Five-Eighths 0.15/g (lg 0.19) -21% · Wingers 0.73/g (lg 0.93) -22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 11/14g | 24% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 4 in 3g | 12/10g (1·2·2·0·0·1·2·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 10/11g | 73% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/11g | 30% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/6g | 47% | — | — |
| 6 | George Whitby | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | George Delaney | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/33g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/37g | 12% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Host | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Robertson | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/12g | 33% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Whitley | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Stephens | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 5% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 21' 42' |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 3 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·3) | 1/7g | 1/6g | 28% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Luke Hooley | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 6% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Hallas | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Hallas | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Brandon Douglas | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1589 · Bradford Bulls 1534 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — St Helens predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)