# Leigh Leopards v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 16 – 22 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 70% / Catalans Dragons 30% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sat, 07 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (9' 1st), Innes Senior (50'), Tesi Niu (65' 1st) · Catalans Dragons: Harvey Wilson (18'), Charlie Staines (45'), Lewis Dodd (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 70% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 16–22 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 4 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards led first, and for long stretches of this one they looked like the side controlling the scoreboard, not chasing it. Tesi Niu crossed in the ninth minute and Adam Cook's conversion made it 6-0 by the tenth. That was the highest Leigh would sit all night. Catalans Dragons hit back through Harvey Wilson in the 18th, Toby Sexton's conversion levelling things at 6-6 two minutes later, and that scoreline held all the way to the break. Locked, level, nothing separating them at Leigh Sports Village Stadium.

The pressure shifted for good early in the second half. Sexton slotted a penalty goal in the 42nd minute to put Catalans in front for the first time, 6-8, and Charlie Staines scored three minutes later to make it 6-14 once Sexton added the extras. Leigh had spent the whole first half chasing nothing. Now they were chasing a lead, and the gap had opened fast.

Leigh didn't fold straight away. Innes Senior got them back within four at 10-14 in the 50th minute, but Catalans answered almost immediately through Lewis Dodd, Sexton's conversion stretching it back out to 10-20 by the 55th. Niu's second try in the 65th, converted by Cook, brought Leigh within four again at 16-20, and for a few minutes the chase looked live. Sexton's second penalty goal in the 78th put it out of reach at 16-22, the final scoreline. Five goals from the boot of Sexton, three conversions and two penalties, was the difference between a tight finish and a genuine contest.

The stat sheet tells an odd story for a losing side. Leigh actually shaded the running game, 1,221 metres to 1,129, and broke the line five times to Catalans' two. Those are the numbers that usually decide games. But Catalans were the tidier side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to Leigh's 7, and their offload count, 10 to 4, kept the ball alive through contact. Tackle busts ran the same way, 37 for Catalans against 27 for Leigh. Leigh got themselves into good positions off line breaks. Catalans turned their ball retention and go-forward into actual points, which in the end is the only column that counts.

That split fits the shape of the two sides coming in.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,221** | Run metres | 1,129 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **37** |
| 4 | Offloads | **10** |
| 7 | Errors | **5** |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 5/5 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 7 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 70% prediction for Leigh Leopards, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 6 points. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 8 · Catalans Dragons 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 70.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 70% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 153 ELO points clear, 1559 to 1406. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Leigh Leopards.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 47. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 1177.6m | Run Metres | 984.4m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 329.6 | Tackles | 282.8 |
| 7.6 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L | 15.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 33 | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons 52% ✗ |
| 2025 | R15 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 26 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leigh Leopards | 34 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 30 – 2 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 11th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Hodgson, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 14th there (3.33 conceded/game). Key man: Staines, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 6th) · concedes 3.33/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 88m/g | 113m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 93% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 502m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 87.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 0 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 289m/g | 195m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.24) -12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/9g | 1/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 9' 65' |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·2·3·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/15g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben McNamara | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/20g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Horne | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Andrew Badrock | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ryan Brown | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| 5 | Phoenix Togagae | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Costa | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Matthieu Laguerre | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 14 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1559 · Catalans Dragons 1406 · ELO difference: 153 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)