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Super League | Round 4

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LEIGH SPORTS VILLAGE STADIUM • FRIDAY 6 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEI

Leigh Leopards

1622
CAT

Catalans Dragons

❌ Upset — model favoured Leigh Leopards at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

70%

Catalans Dragons

30%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Venue Advantage. Leigh Leopards carry a 153-point ELO rating advantage (1559 vs 1406). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 6.1 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.42

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +6.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2L
R3L

older → newer

15.2
Catalans Dragons
R1W
R2L
R3L
16.4

Avg Conceded

23.2

Leigh Leopards

20.8

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-8.0

Leigh Leopards

-4.4

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1173

Leigh Leopards

980

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

3.4

Leigh Leopards

3.0

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 5-0
May 2026LEI 33 - 18 CAT
Jun 2025LEI 26 - 12 CAT
May 2025LEI 26 - 24 CAT
Mar 2025LEI 34 - 6 CAT
Feb 2024LEI 30 - 2 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1559Overall1406
CAT
ELO difference: +153 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

855Forwards647
Best: 1069LEI +208Best: 741
682Backs741
Best: 737CAT +59Best: 835
600Halves882
Best: 600CAT +282Best: 882
651Hooker617
LEI +34

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
23.2pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
-8.0pts
Avg Margin
-4.4pts
1173.4m
Run Metres
979.8m
3.4
Clean Breaks
3.0
329.6
Tackles
282.8
7.6
Errors
8.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

70%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +6.1

0/4 match predictions correct