# Leeds Rhinos v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Leeds Rhinos v Castleford Tigers
Mon, 09 Mar, 02:00 am AEDT · AMT Headingley Stadium · Round 4

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 14 · Predicted total: 39

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.8pts |
| 1360.6m | Run Metres | 878.6m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 290.2 | Tackles | 261.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R27 L · R28 L · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 27.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 W | 18.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)