# Leeds Rhinos v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 22 – 4 Castleford Tigers

_Leeds Rhinos trample Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 10 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 81% / Castleford Tigers 19% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Mon, 09 Mar, 02:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: George Brown (10' 1st), Maika Sivo (28'), Maika Sivo (45'), Maika Sivo (53') · Castleford Tigers: Mikaele Ravalawa (17')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 81% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.8 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 22–4 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 4 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a footy match were on show at AMT Headingley Stadium, and only one of them ended with a hat-trick. Castleford Tigers wanted to make things happen, breaking the line 7 times to Leeds Rhinos' 5 and racking up 26 tackle busts of their own. Leeds Rhinos, meanwhile, just kept hold of the ball and let field position do the rest. Final score: 22-4 to the home side, and it wasn't really close.

Maika Sivo scored three of Leeds Rhinos' four tries, which tells you most of what you need to know about how the game got away from Castleford Tigers. George Brown got things moving in the 10th minute, Jake Connor's conversion made it 6-0, and Castleford Tigers hit back through Mikaele Ravalawa at the 17th to trim it to 6-4. That was as close as it got.

Sivo's first, in the 28th minute, pushed the lead to 10-4, and that's how it stood at the break. Then the second half turned into a procession. Sivo scored again in the 45th, Connor slotted the conversion, and by the 53rd minute Sivo had his third to make it 20-4 before Connor's boot closed it out at 22-4. Three tries in the second half to none for Castleford Tigers is about as clean a definition of pulling away as you'll find.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Leeds Rhinos ran for 1,396 metres to Castleford Tigers' 1,181, and offloaded the ball 16 times to just 6, which is the kind of gap that turns field position into points. They were also the tidier side, with 12 errors against Castleford Tigers' 15. Ball security mattered more than ball movement on this occasion.

Castleford Tigers can point to a few positives. They broke the line more often, held the discipline edge with 6 penalties conceded to Leeds Rhinos' 7, and had a crack at playing off the back foot all night. None of it translated into points beyond the one Ravalawa try. Line breaks without the polish to finish them are just numbers on a sheet.

The form line coming in explains a fair bit of this. Leeds Rhinos arrived off two straight wins and were averaging 27.6 points a game to Castleford Tigers' 18.4, with a scoring margin of plus 10.8 against Castleford Tigers' minus 10.8. The positional ratings pointed the same way, Leeds Rhinos well ahead in the backs (1072 to 909) and halves (974 to 893), with Castleford Tigers' only edge at hooker. Sivo's night in particular looked like the backs rating cashing out in real time.

Alphr's model had Leeds Rhinos at 81% to win with a predicted margin of 13.8 and a combined total of 39. The result landed at 22-4, an 18-point margin and a 26-point total, so the head start was called correctly even if the gap ran a bit wider than tipped. Both picks for the match hit. Not a bad one to have on the sheet.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,396** | Run metres | 1,181 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **7** |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| **16** | Offloads | 6 |
| **12** | Errors | 15 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 15 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 81% probability. The predicted margin of 13.8 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Leeds Rhinos led 10–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 7 · Castleford Tigers 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 14 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 81% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 307 ELO points clear, 1665 to 1359. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 13.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.8pts |
| 1360.6m | Run Metres | 878.6m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 290.2 | Tackles | 261.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 27.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R1 L · R2 L · R3 W | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 69% ✗ |
| 2025 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 64 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 29 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leeds Rhinos | 38 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 26 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 13th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 9th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Lawler, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 9th) | 2.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 2.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 173m/g | 84m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 3 | 3 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 375m/g | 378m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12/g | 16/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 85.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 387m/g | 298m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 95.4% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.25) +76% · Wingers 1.46/g (lg 0.93) +57%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.04) +125% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 6 in 2g | 6/2g (2·4) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | — | 🏉 28' 45' 53' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 12/26g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 10/19g | 7/16g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | George Brown | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/22g | 5/15g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 13% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/23g | 3/13g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Smith | LK | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 4/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Christopher Hankinson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Westerman | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | George Lawler | INT | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/14g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1665 · Castleford Tigers 1359 · ELO difference: 307 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)