Leeds Rhinos
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Leeds Rhinos
81%
Castleford Tigers
19%
AI Match Overview
Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 307-point ELO rating advantage (1665 vs 1359). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 13.8 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Leeds Rhinos +13.8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Leeds Rhinos | R1L R2W R3W older → newer | 27.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R1L R2L R3W | 18.4 |
Avg Conceded
16.8
Leeds Rhinos
29.2
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
10.8
Leeds Rhinos
-10.8
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1357
Leeds Rhinos
874
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
6.0
Leeds Rhinos
4.2
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
81%
Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +13.8