# Huddersfield Giants v Hull KR — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 6 – 32 Hull KR

_Hull KR put Huddersfield Giants to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 54% / Hull KR 46% · The Accu Stadium · Mon, 09 Mar, 02:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: George Flanagan (52') · Hull KR: Oliver Gildart (2' 1st), Tom Davies (26'), Joe Burgess (36'), Mikey Lewis (42'), Tom Davies (54'), Mikey Lewis (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | 54% | Lost |
| Hull KR | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 6–32 Hull KR in Super League Round 4 at The Accu Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen points down at the break and it only got worse from there. Hull KR led 0-16 at half-time at The Accu Stadium and finished it off 32-6, turning a competitive scoreline into a rout without much fuss.

Oliver Gildart got things moving inside two minutes, and Huddersfield Giants spent the rest of the night chasing that early deficit rather than the scoreboard itself. Tom Davies added a try in the 26th minute, Joe Burgess crossed in the 36th, and by the 43rd minute, after Mikey Lewis had gone over and Rhyse Martin slotted the conversion, it was 0-22. Huddersfield hadn't troubled the scoreboard at all by that point. George Flanagan finally got the home side on the board in the 52nd minute, and Oliver Russell's conversion made it 6-22, briefly suggesting a way back in. Hull KR answered inside two minutes through Tom Davies again, and that was effectively that. Mikey Lewis added his second in the 71st minute to push it out to the final 32-6.

The gap was never really about one passage of play. It was built through the middle, where Hull KR ran for 1,526 metres to Huddersfield's 1,104, and it showed up in the line break count too: seven to three. Hull KR busted 39 tackles to Huddersfield's 34 and offloaded 15 times to 12, the kind of volume that wears a defence down over eighty minutes rather than breaking it in one moment.

Discipline mattered as well. Huddersfield coughed the ball up 14 times to Hull KR's 11, and against a side finding metres that easily, every error was a foothold. Penalties conceded were level at six apiece, so it wasn't a case of one team being camped on the wrong side of the referee. It was simpler than that: Hull KR looked after the ball better and did more with it.

The positional read going in flagged exactly where this was likely to be lost. Hull KR's hooker rating of 1106 dwarfed Huddersfield's 600, and Mikey Lewis backed that up with two tries and involvement all night. Huddersfield held clear edges in the halves, 1000 to 600, and out wide, 801 to 692, but none of it translated into points until deep in the second half. Form lines told a similar story coming in: Hull KR arrived with three wins from their last five to Huddersfield's one, and while their average points conceded were nearly identical, Huddersfield's average margin of minus 8.8 compared with Hull KR's minus 3.8 suggested one side was better equipped to hold a lead. That gap showed up again here.

Alphr's model had Huddersfield as marginal 54% favourites, expected to win by 1.1 points in a game projected around 45 total. None of that landed. Hull KR won by 26, the model's picks missed, and the scoreline was never close to what pre-match ratings suggested. A reminder that ELO numbers and positional edges are a start, not a guarantee, and Hull KR's hooker stocks alone were worth more on the night than any spreadsheet had them down for.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,104 | Run metres | **1,526** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 34 | Tackle busts | **39** |
| 12 | Offloads | **15** |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 14 | Errors | 11 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull KR defied the model's 54% prediction for Huddersfield Giants, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. Hull KR led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (6/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 6 · Hull KR 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Huddersfield Giants to win — model probability 53.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Huddersfield Giants 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Huddersfield Giants by 1 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Huddersfield Giants are the call at 54%, but Hull KR stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull KR sit 250 ELO points clear, 1562 to 1312, so the model is backing Huddersfield Giants against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Huddersfield Giants.

On paper Hull KR shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Huddersfield Giants, which says Backline Quality and Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Huddersfield Giants by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Huddersfield Giants, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 23.0pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.8pts |
| 1048.6m | Run Metres | 1053.2m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 331.2 | Tackles | 292.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R1 L · R2 L · R3 L | 14.4 |
| Hull KR | R1 L · R3 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | Hull KR 62% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | Hull KR | 34 – 0 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 50 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 24 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Hull KR | 32 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 5th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 12th there (2.5 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Whitbread, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 10th) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.5/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.33/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 3/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 0 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 94m/g | 160m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 86.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 1 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 395m/g | 461m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.3/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 68.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 257m/g | 245m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 91.6% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.26) -15% · Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.46) -24% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.19) -32%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.19) +47% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.46) +46% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Accu Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 4 in 3g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/2g | 2/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Tanguy Zenon | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 3 | Taane Milne | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Connor Carr | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Olly Russell | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Oliver Russell | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Tui Lolohea | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Patolo | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kieran Rush | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Burgess | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Billington | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Matthew English | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 14 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Fenton Rogers | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | George King | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Tristan Powell | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/15g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 26' 54' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 1 in 2g | 14/10g (2·4·3·0·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 9/14g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 42' 71' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Karl Lawton | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Taealoaloa Amone | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1312), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.87). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1312 · Hull KR 1562 · ELO difference: 250 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)