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Super League | Round 4

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THE ACCU STADIUM • SUNDAY 8 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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HUD

Huddersfield Giants

632
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured Huddersfield Giants at 54%

AI Win Probability

54%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

54%

Hull KR

46%

AI Match Overview

Huddersfield Giants hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Hull KR are far from out of this at 46%. Hull KR are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage, but Huddersfield Giants counter with Forward Pack and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 250-point ELO rating advantage (1562 vs 1312). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Huddersfield Giants by 1.1 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @1.87

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants +1.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R1L
R2L
R3L

older → newer

14.4
Hull KR
R1L
R3L
19.2

Avg Conceded

23.2

Huddersfield Giants

23.0

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-8.8

Huddersfield Giants

-3.8

Hull KR

Run Metres

1045

Huddersfield Giants

1051

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.4

Huddersfield Giants

4.6

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
May 2025HUD 0 - 34 HKR
Apr 2025HUD 4 - 50 HKR
Feb 2024HUD 12 - 24 HKR
Jun 2024HUD 6 - 32 HKR
Sep 2023HUD 18 - 26 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1312), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.87).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1312Overall1562
HKR
ELO difference: -250 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

757Forwards747
Best: 904HUD +11Best: 871
801Backs692
Best: 935HUD +108Best: 754
1000Halves600
Best: 1000HUD +400Best: 600
600Hooker1106
HKR +506

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
HKR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
14.4pts
Avg Score
19.2pts
23.2pts
Avg Conceded
23.0pts
-8.8pts
Avg Margin
-3.8pts
1045.0m
Run Metres
1050.8m
3.4
Clean Breaks
4.6
331.2
Tackles
292.4
9.8
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

54%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +1.1

0/4 match predictions correct