# Wigan Warriors v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 54 – 0 Leigh Leopards

_Wigan Warriors put Leigh Leopards to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 75% / Leigh Leopards 25% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 27 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Adam Keighran (10' 1st), Bevan French (20'), Jai Field (24'), Harry Smith (28'), Jai Field (42'), Zach Eckersley (53'), Junior Nsemba (63'), Harry Smith (70'), Tom Forber (75') · Leigh Leopards: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 75% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 54–0 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 3 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors winning by 10.2 points. It got the winner right, at 75% probability, and got everything else wrong. Wigan won by 54.

The scoreline at The Brick Community Stadium read 54-0. Leigh Leopards didn't trouble the board once, across the full 80 minutes.

The read wasn't mad going in. Wigan's halves rating of 1210 dwarfed Leigh's 764, and that gap showed up everywhere on the stat sheet: 1,661 running metres to 677, ten line breaks to none, 49 tackle busts to 21. A halves mismatch that size was always going to create space. What nobody had pencilled in was Leigh failing to lay a glove on the scoreboard.

The timeline tells you this wasn't a shootout that got away from Leigh late. Adam Keighran opened it in the 10th minute, and by half-time Wigan were already up 24-0 through tries to Keighran, Bevan French, Jai Field and Harry Smith. That's the version of the model's prediction that held up, a dominant home side building a lead through the sharper halves pairing. From there it should have been about how much Leigh could claw back.

They couldn't claw back anything. Jai Field's second try in the 42nd minute made it 28-0 barely after the resumption, and Wigan didn't let up from there. Zach Eckersley, Junior Nsemba, a second for Harry Smith and Tom Forber all crossed between the 53rd and 75th minutes, with Keighran slotting every conversion put in front of him. Nine tries, eight conversions, not a single blemish on the kicking tee.

Leigh's forward pack rating of 790 wasn't catastrophic against Wigan's 863, and their backs actually rated higher on paper, 1050 to 1021. None of that mattered without go-forward. Leigh managed 677 running metres to Wigan's 1,661, less than half, and busted only 21 tackles against Wigan's 49. Zero line breaks in 80 minutes says enough on its own about how little space they found.

Discipline didn't help either. Leigh conceded six penalties to Wigan's three, handing back exactly the kind of cheap field position a side chasing points can't afford. Errors were even at eight apiece, so it wasn't sloppiness that separated these two sides. It was execution once the ball was in hand, and Wigan's halves stood up all night while Leigh's had no answer.

Form lines had these two as more competitive than this. Leigh arrived having won three of their last five, conceding an average of 15.6 points a game. They shipped 54. Wigan's own defensive form, 11.6 points conceded on average, made a shutout plausible, but nobody predicts a 54-0 margin off form guides like these.

So the model's coin landed the right way up on the winner and nowhere close on the number. Wigan Warriors were exactly as dominant as the halves gap suggested they could be. Leigh Leopards simply never found a way to make it a contest.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,661** | Run metres | 677 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **49** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **14** | Offloads | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 0 |
| 9/9 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 54 points. Wigan Warriors led 24–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 3 · Leigh Leopards 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 75% to see off Leigh Leopards. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 78 ELO points clear, 1686 to 1608. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leigh Leopards.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 42. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 15.6pts |
| 9.6pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1256.2m | Run Metres | 1282.6m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 315.4 | Tackles | 309.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R1 W · R2 W | 21.2 |
| Leigh Leopards | R1 W · R2 L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Wigan Warriors | 18 – 6 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 8 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 28 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Wigan Warriors | 0 – 1 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.41 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 24 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (0.76 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 7th) | 1.24/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.41/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.55/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 8 | 15 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 138m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 87 · 27 | 61 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 506m/g | 597m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 20.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 85.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 13 | 29 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 346m/g | 367m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.18) +17% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.23) -13%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.14) -14% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.29) -28% · Halfbacks 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 5/10g | 39/48g | 54% | — | 🏉 24' 42' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·2·2·0·1·2·1) | 1/7g | 12/24g | 50% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 7/24g | 26% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | Liam Farrell | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 21/62g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·3·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/12g | 48/64g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 12/64g | 10% | — | 🏉 28' 70' |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·2·0·1·1) | 10/10g | 53/48g | 58% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 6/46g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 7/34g | 22% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 12 | Sam Walters | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 6/23g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/49g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Oliver Partington | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/25g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Forber | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 21% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 0 in 2g | 9/10g (2·0·0·2·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/20g | 0/7g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/27g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Gareth O'Brien | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1686 · Leigh Leopards 1608 · ELO difference: 78 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)