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Super League | Round 3

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 26 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

540
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

75%

Leigh Leopards

25%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 78-point ELO rating advantage (1686 vs 1608). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 10.2 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.33

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +10.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R1W
R2W

older → newer

21.2
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2L
21.2

Avg Conceded

11.6

Wigan Warriors

15.6

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

9.6

Wigan Warriors

5.6

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1253

Wigan Warriors

1280

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

4.0

Wigan Warriors

5.2

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Oct 2025WIG 18 - 6 LEI
Jul 2025WIG 8 - 18 LEI
May 2025WIG 36 - 28 LEI
Mar 2025WIG 0 - 1 LEI
Feb 2024WIG 38 - 0 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1686Overall1608
LEI
ELO difference: +78 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

863Forwards790
Best: 1106WIG +73Best: 1039
1021Backs1050
Best: 1252LEI +29Best: 1303
1210Halves764
Best: 1210WIG +446Best: 764
648Hooker600
WIG +48

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
LEI
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
21.2pts
Avg Score
21.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
15.6pts
9.6pts
Avg Margin
5.6pts
1252.8m
Run Metres
1280.2m
4.0
Clean Breaks
5.2
315.4
Tackles
309.0
11.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

75%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +10.2

3/4 match predictions correct