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Super League | Round 3

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SATURDAY 28 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

2716
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 54%

AI Win Probability

54%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

54%

Wakefield Trinity

46%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Wakefield Trinity are far from out of this at 46%. Wakefield Trinity are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but Warrington Wolves counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 88-point ELO rating advantage (1514 vs 1426). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 2.0 points with a combined total of 51.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.87

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R1W

older → newer

14.0
Wakefield Trinity
R1L
R2W
24.8

Avg Conceded

27.0

Warrington Wolves

17.6

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-13.0

Warrington Wolves

7.2

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

783

Warrington Wolves

1233

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

2.2

Warrington Wolves

5.2

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1
May 2025WAR 10 - 40 WAK
Mar 2025WAR 16 - 30 WAK
Jul 2023WAR 6 - 42 WAK
May 2023WAR 32 - 18 WAK
Jun 2022WAR 24 - 30 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Wakefield Trinity hold the ELO advantage (1514 vs 1426), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.87).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1426Overall1514
WAK
ELO difference: -88 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

761Forwards939
Best: 991WAK +178Best: 1169
1027Backs863
Best: 1189WAR +165Best: 971
794Halves838
Best: 794WAK +44Best: 838
1212Hooker957
WAR +254

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
WAK
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
14.0pts
Avg Score
24.8pts
27.0pts
Avg Conceded
17.6pts
-13.0pts
Avg Margin
7.2pts
782.6m
Run Metres
1232.6m
2.2
Clean Breaks
5.2
254.2
Tackles
331.4
6.4
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Trinity

Model Confidence

54%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 51 · Line: +2.0

4/4 match predictions correct