# Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 27 – 16 Wakefield Trinity

_Warrington Wolves run down Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 14 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 54% / Wakefield Trinity 46% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 01 Mar, 04:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Toafofoa Sipley (33' 1st), Albert Hopoate (36'), Josh Smith (55'), Toby King (77') · Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (43'), Jayden Myers (50'), Oliver Pratt (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 54% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 27–16 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 3 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves led 14-2 at the break and Wakefield Trinity spent the second half trying to find a way back into it. They very nearly did. Final score: Warrington Wolves 27, Wakefield Trinity 16, but for a stretch there it looked like the ledger might get rewritten.

The first half was one-way traffic. Marc Sneyd's penalty goal in the 15th minute opened it up, then Warrington strung together three tries in six minutes either side of half-time, Toafofoa Sipley, Albert Hopoate, both converted by Sneyd, to go 14-0 up before Wakefield had troubled the scoreboard. Max Jowitt got Wakefield off the mark with a penalty right on half-time. 14-2 at the break undersold how comfortable Warrington had been.

Wakefield came out swinging. Jowitt scored a try in the 43rd minute, Jayden Myers followed in the 50th, and suddenly it was 14-10 and the home crowd had gone quiet. That's the version of this game where Wakefield's recent form data starts to look prophetic, three wins from five coming in, averaging 24.8 points and putting up 1249.6 running metres a game. For twenty minutes they played like that side.

Warrington had an answer. Josh Smith crossed in the 55th, Sneyd converted and then added a penalty for 22-10, and while Oliver Pratt's 69th-minute try and Jowitt's conversion dragged it back to 22-16, Toby King's try in the 77th shut the door. Four tries to three, and the last word belonged to Warrington.

The stat sheet backs up the shift in territory rather than the late scare. Warrington ran for 1,328 metres to Wakefield's 1,029, broke the line four times to two, and racked up 29 tackle busts to 23. That's a forward and outside-back platform doing its job, and it lines up with the pre-match positional read: Warrington's backs (1027) and hooker (1212) rated well clear of Wakefield's (863 and 957), even with Wakefield's forward pack rated stronger on paper (939 to 761).

Discipline and ball control told the same story. Warrington coughed the ball up just 6 times to Wakefield's 9, and conceded fewer penalties, 7 to 8. Wakefield had walked in as the tidier side across their last five, averaging just 6.4 errors to Warrington's 6.4... actually the form gap ran the other way, Wakefield were the form side on paper, better averages across scoring, margin and errors. On the day, none of it showed up where it counted.

Alphr's model had Warrington as 54% favourites and picked a 2-point margin off ratings of 1426 to 1514. The final gap was 11, wider than tipped but the right side of the ledger, and both picks for this one landed. Wakefield will look at that second-half surge and wonder what a cleaner opening 40 might have done. Warrington won't care. They had the lead they needed and never really let it go.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,328** | Run metres | 1,029 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **29** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 4 | Offloads | 4 |
| **6** | Errors | 9 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 6 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 7 · Wakefield Trinity 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 2 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 54%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Wakefield Trinity sit 88 ELO points clear, 1514 to 1426, so the model is backing Warrington Wolves against the ratings gap. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Warrington Wolves.

On paper Wakefield Trinity shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Warrington Wolves, which says Backline Quality and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -13.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 783.8m | Run Metres | 1249.6m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 254.2 | Tackles | 332.0 |
| 6.4 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R1 W | 14.0 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 L · R2 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Warrington Wolves | 10 – 23 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 25 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 58% ✗ |
| 2025 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 40 – 10 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 30 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 42 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Thewlis, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.93/g (def 8th) | 0.64/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 0.52/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 8th) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 19 | 17 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 113m/g | 98m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 88.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 51 | 52 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 306m/g | 418m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 12.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 19 | 24 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 245m/g | 329m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 94.6% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.23) +26% · Wingers 1.11/g (lg 0.96) +16%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22% · Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.29/g (lg 0.29) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 1 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 4/5g | 26/49g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/15g | 20/40g | 40% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Joshua Smith | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 12/41g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 3/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/55g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Harrison | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 14/63g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 15 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 2/50g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/3g | 30% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | no games | 3/8g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 2/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Matty Storton | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jay Pitts | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wakefield Trinity hold the ELO advantage (1514 vs 1426), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.87). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1426 · Wakefield Trinity 1514 · ELO difference: 88 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)