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Super League | Round 3

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • FRIDAY 27 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1617
YRK

York Knights

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 65%

AI Win Probability

65%HullFavourite

Hull

65%

York Knights

35%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over York Knights. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Hull with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for York Knights. The margin model predicts Hull by 5.4 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.54

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull +5.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R1W
R2L

older → newer

18.6
York Knights
R1W
R2L
16.5

Avg Conceded

20.0

Hull

32.0

York Knights

Avg Margin

-1.4

Hull

-15.5

York Knights

Run Metres

970

Hull

1053

York Knights

Clean Breaks

3.2

Hull

3.0

York Knights

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

York Knights hold the ELO advantage (1487 vs 1479), but the market favours Hull (@1.54).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1479Overall1487
YRK
ELO difference: -8 in favour of York Knights

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

817Forwards770
Best: 1071HUL +47Best: 981
648Backs749
Best: 680YRK +101Best: 811
800Halves770
Best: 800HUL +30Best: 770
696Hooker640
HUL +56

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
YRK
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
18.6pts
Avg Score
16.5pts
20.0pts
Avg Conceded
32.0pts
-1.4pts
Avg Margin
-15.5pts
969.8m
Run Metres
1053.0m
3.2
Clean Breaks
3.0
306.6
Tackles
331.5
9.6
Errors
9.5

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Knights
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Knights
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

65%

Hull predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +5.4

1/4 match predictions correct