# Hull KR v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 6 – 58 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over Hull KR._

Half time: 0 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 71% / Leeds Rhinos 29% · Allegiant Stadium · Sun, 01 Mar, 03:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (64') · Leeds Rhinos: Maika Sivo (8' 1st), Maika Sivo (14' 1st), Brodie Croft (21'), Keenan Palasia (28'), Ryan Hall (33'), Brodie Croft (50'), Maika Sivo (55' 1st), Maika Sivo (68' 1st), Cooper Jenkins (76'), Cooper Jenkins (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 71% | Lost |
| Leeds Rhinos | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull KR 6–58 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 3 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR never got a look at the scoreboard from the front. Leeds Rhinos were 0-6 up inside nine minutes, 0-12 by the quarter mark, and by half-time it read 28-0. Once that gap opened, it never looked like closing.

Maika Sivo set the tone with the game's opening try in the 8th minute, then did it again six minutes later. That's 0-12 before Hull KR had settled into the contest. Brodie Croft, Keenan Palasia and Ryan Hall all crossed before the break too, and Jake Connor didn't miss a conversion in that opening half. Five tries, five kicks, none of it answered. Hull KR's task by half-time wasn't to win the game anymore, it was to avoid embarrassment. They didn't quite manage that either.

The third quarter buried it further. Croft's second try landed in the 50th minute, Sivo's third in the 55th, and by the hour mark it was 0-40. Hull KR finally got on the board through Joe Burgess in the 64th minute, Rhyse Martin's conversion making it 6-40, but Sivo answered four minutes later for his fourth of the night and Leeds were away again. Cooper Jenkins added two more in the last four minutes to turn a heavy loss into a rout. Final score 58-6, and the last quarter alone did plenty of the damage.

The stat sheet backs up everything the scoreboard suggested. Leeds ran for 1,563 metres to Hull KR's 825, very nearly double, and that territorial gap showed up everywhere else. Eleven line breaks to three. Fifty-one tackle busts to 18. Nineteen offloads to four, which tells you Leeds weren't just running into space, they were keeping the ball alive after contact and finding it again. Hull KR's only real edge was discipline, five penalties conceded against Leeds' seven, but discipline doesn't mean much when you can't get your hands on the footy.

Look at the positional numbers going in and it stops being much of a surprise. Leeds held a big edge in the backs, 1161 to 603, and the halves, 1032 to 685. Sivo's four tries and Croft's two are exactly what that gap on paper is supposed to produce, and on the night it did. Hull KR's one true strength was at hooker, 1337 to 663, and it wasn't nearly enough to offset getting outmuscled everywhere behind the play-the-ball.

Recent form had painted a different picture. Hull KR arrived on three wins from five and a positive average margin, Leeds had lost four straight before this one. On the numbers, Alphr's model liked Hull KR at 71% and picked them by 2.6 points on a combined total of 39. None of it held up. Leeds won by 52, the total ran 25 points over the projection, and both picks missed. Sometimes the form line tells you where a team's been, not where they're about to go. This was one of those weeks.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 825 | Run metres | **1,563** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **11** |
| 18 | Tackle busts | **51** |
| 4 | Offloads | **19** |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 10 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 9/10 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 11 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 71% prediction for Hull KR, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.6 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 64 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 39. Leeds Rhinos led 0–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Hull KR 5 · Leeds Rhinos 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 70.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 3 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 71% to see off Leeds Rhinos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 34 ELO points clear, 1632 to 1598. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Leeds Rhinos.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Hull KR by 2.6, with the two sides combining for about 39. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 17.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 1109.0m | Run Metres | 1286.6m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 300.8 | Tackles | 296.6 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R1 L | 20.4 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R1 L · R2 W | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Leeds Rhinos | 34 – 8 | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 28 – 6 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull KR | 8 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull KR | 26 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 2nd there (0.57 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 21 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.59 conceded/game). Key man: Newman, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.86/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.68/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.07/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 8 | 15 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 144m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 83 · 30 | 52 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 614m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.6/g | 19.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 84.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 19 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 328m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0% · Centres 0.39/g (lg 0.46) -15% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.29) -7% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7% · Wingers 0.77/g (lg 0.96) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/16g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (0·2·4·3·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 6/17g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 8' 14' 55' 68' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/13g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 21' 50' |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 76' 78' |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Smith | LK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Christopher Hankinson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Littlewood | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1632 · Leeds Rhinos 1598 · ELO difference: 34 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)