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Super League | Round 3

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ALLEGIANT STADIUM • SATURDAY 28 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
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HKR

Hull KR

658
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

71%

Leeds Rhinos

29%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leeds Rhinos. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hull KR carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1632 vs 1598). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 2.6 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.42

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +2.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R1L

older → newer

20.4
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
R2W
17.6

Avg Conceded

17.0

Hull KR

18.8

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

3.4

Hull KR

-1.2

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1108

Hull KR

1284

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

4.2

Hull KR

4.6

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Aug 2025HKR 6 - 28 LEE
Jul 2025HKR 8 - 14 LEE
May 2025HKR 20 - 14 LEE
Sep 2024HKR 26 - 16 LEE
Jul 2024HKR 20 - 12 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1632Overall1598
LEE
ELO difference: +34 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

901Forwards927
Best: 1156LEE +26Best: 1129
603Backs1161
Best: 605LEE +558Best: 1292
685Halves1032
Best: 685LEE +348Best: 1032
1337Hooker663
HKR +674

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
LEE
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
17.0pts
Avg Conceded
18.8pts
3.4pts
Avg Margin
-1.2pts
1107.8m
Run Metres
1284.0m
4.2
Clean Breaks
4.6
300.8
Tackles
296.6
8.6
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

71%

Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +2.6

0/4 match predictions correct