# Hull FC v York Knights — Super League Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 16 – 17 York Knights

_York Knights fight back to charge down Hull FC._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 65% / York Knights 35% · MKM Stadium · Sat, 28 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Davy Litten (20'), Harvey Barron (30'), Lewis Martin (78') · York Knights: David Nofoaluma (9' 1st), David Nofoaluma (46' 1st), Ben Jones-Bishop (53')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 65% | Lost |
| York Knights | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull FC 16–17 York Knights in Super League Round 3 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights edged Hull FC 17–16 at MKM Stadium. Trailing 10–6 at half-time, York Knights flipped the game after the break.

David Nofoaluma opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Davy Litten, Harvey Barron and Lewis Martin; York Knights scored through David Nofoaluma (2) and Ben Jones-Bishop.

York Knights were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 10 times to 11. Hull FC were sharper in attack, breaking the line 5 times to 3 and busting 45 tackles. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 3 penalties to 7. In a 1-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,301** | Run metres | 1,223 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **45** | Tackle busts | 32 |
| **11** | Offloads | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 11 | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

York Knights defied the model's 65% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. York Knights trailed 10–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–17. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (53/100) — penalties Hull FC 3 · York Knights 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 65.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 65.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 65.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 5 · Predicted total: 40

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | York Knights | 20 – 16 | Hull FC | York Knights 51% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

| Channel | Hull FC | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.52/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 6th) | — |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 7th) | — |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.63/g (def 5th) | — |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.23) +174% · Props 0.26/g (lg 0.14) +86% · Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.18) +83%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.23) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davy Litten | FB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/18g | 25% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 15/24g | 44% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 0 in 2g | 12/10g (3·4·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 21/26g | 56% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 29% | — | — |
| 13 | Yusuf Aydin | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/41g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | John Asiata | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Liam Harris | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 3/9g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 7 | Danny Richardson | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | King Vuniyayawa | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)