Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrFC had a +4 penalty advantage in a close contest. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.
AI Game Review
York Knights defied the model's 65% prediction for Hull FC, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. York Knights trailed 10–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–17. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hull FC
65%
York Knights
35%
AI Match Overview
Hull FC are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over York Knights. The model sees Hull FC ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull FC carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1477). Recent form favours Hull FC with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for York Knights. The margin model predicts Hull FC by 5.4 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull FC to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Hull FC +5.4 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull FC 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull FC | R1W R2L older → newer | 21.9 |
York Knights | R1W R2L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
26.9
Hull FC
20.1
York Knights
Avg Margin
8.7
Hull FC
-0.2
York Knights
Run Metres
1380
Hull FC
1216
York Knights
Line Breaks
3.5
Hull FC
4.4
York Knights
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Hull FC predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +5.4