Catalans Dragons
St Helens
AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
44%
St Helens
56%
AI Match Overview
St Helens hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 44%. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control, but St Helens counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. St Helens carry a 122-point ELO rating advantage (1559 vs 1437). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Helens. The margin model predicts St Helens by 2.4 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.79
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
St Helens -2.4 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R1W R2L older → newer | 19.0 |
St Helens | R1L R2W | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
16.8
Catalans Dragons
20.0
St Helens
Avg Margin
2.2
Catalans Dragons
-2.4
St Helens
Run Metres
919
Catalans Dragons
1076
St Helens
Clean Breaks
2.6
Catalans Dragons
3.6
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
St Helens predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: -2.4