# Catalans Dragons v St Helens — Super League Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 4 – 36 St Helens

_St Helens run riot over Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 0 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 44% / St Helens 56% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 01 Mar, 05:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Charlie Staines (67') · St Helens: Daryl Clark (9' 1st), Jacob Host (49'), Shane Wright (58'), Daryl Clark (64' 1st), Kyle Feldt (77'), Kyle Feldt (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 56% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 4–36 St Helens in Super League Round 3 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens winning by 2.4 points. They won by 32. That's the kind of margin miss that makes you check the numbers twice, and they check out fine, St Helens simply didn't stop scoring.

The pre-match read wasn't wrong about who'd win. The rating gap, 1559 to 1437, correctly pointed to St Helens at 56% probability, and the model's total of 39 landed close to the actual 40. What it couldn't see coming was how one-sided the contest inside that total would be. Catalans Dragons managed 4 points. St Helens managed the other 36.

Half-time had St Helens up 6-0, Daryl Clark crossing in the 9th minute and Jackson Hastings converting a minute later. Nothing in that scoreline screamed rout. Then the second half arrived and St Helens simply kept scoring: Jacob Host in the 49th, Shane Wright in the 58th, Clark again in the 64th for his second. By the time Charlie Staines got Catalans Dragons on the board in the 67th minute, the margin was already 24-0. St Helens weren't done, adding a penalty goal and two Kyle Feldt tries in the last ten minutes to turn a comfortable lead into a demolition.

The stat sheet explains why the model's forward and hooker ratings mattered more than the halves numbers suggested. St Helens went into this rated well ahead up front, 858 to 736, and miles ahead at hooker, 1128 to 785. Both showed up. St Helens ran for 1,324 metres against 1,112, busted 42 tackles to Catalans Dragons' 19, and forced 6 line breaks to 4, with Daryl Clark contributing two of the six tries himself.

Catalans Dragons' form heading in read better than the raw ladder position suggested, four wins from five compared to St Helens' three, and a positive average margin of 2.2 points against St Helens' minus 2.4. None of that travelled.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1,112 | Run metres | **1,324** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| 6 | Offloads | **9** |
| 12 | Errors | **7** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 6/7 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.4 but the actual margin was 32 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. St Helens led 0–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (6/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 6 · St Helens 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 56.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 2 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 56%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 122 ELO points clear, 1559 to 1437. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for St Helens.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with St Helens, which says ELO Difference and Forward Pack carry the most weight. The margin model has St Helens by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 922.2m | Run Metres | 1079.8m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 241.0 | Tackles | 274.2 |
| 7.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R1 W · R2 L | 19.0 |
| St Helens | R1 L · R2 W | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | St Helens | 34 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Catalans Dragons | 13 – 14 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 24 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Catalans Dragons | 14 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/15g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 9% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | — |
| 5 | Joshua Simm | WG | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Costa | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Matthieu Laguerre | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Wilson | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bosam Macdonald | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·2·2·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 69% | — | 🏉 77' 78' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 37% | — | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 2/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/20g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 9' 64' |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Matt Whitley | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 12/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | George Whitby | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Host | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1437 · St Helens 1559 · ELO difference: 122 in favour of St Helens

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Catalans Dragons | St Helens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 736 (best 894) | 858 (best 1159) | St Helens +122 |
| Backs | 772 (best 883) | 727 (best 811) | Catalans Dragons +46 |
| Halves | 911 (best 911) | 894 (best 894) | Catalans Dragons +17 |
| Hooker | 785 | 1128 | St Helens +343 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — St Helens predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)