Skip to main content

Super League | Round 3

alphr.com.au

THE ONEBORE STADIUM • FRIDAY 27 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAS

Castleford Tigers

348
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed Castleford Tigers at 62%

AI Win Probability

62%Castleford TigersFavourite

Castleford Tigers

62%

Huddersfield Giants

38%

AI Match Overview

Castleford Tigers hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Huddersfield Giants are far from out of this at 38%. Huddersfield Giants are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Castleford Tigers counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Huddersfield Giants carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1358 vs 1314). The margin model predicts Huddersfield Giants by 5.6 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Castleford Tigers to Win @1.61

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants -5.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Castleford Tigers
R1L
R2L

older → newer

16.8
Huddersfield Giants
R1L
R2L
12.8

Avg Conceded

32.0

Castleford Tigers

21.6

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

-15.2

Castleford Tigers

-8.8

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

766

Castleford Tigers

967

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

3.4

Castleford Tigers

3.4

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1
Jul 2025CAS 12 - 30 HUD
May 2025CAS 30 - 12 HUD
Feb 2024CAS 8 - 50 HUD
Sep 2024CAS 10 - 34 HUD
Aug 2024CAS 12 - 20 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Huddersfield Giants hold the ELO advantage (1358 vs 1314), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.61).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAS
1314Overall1358
HUD
ELO difference: -44 in favour of Huddersfield Giants

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

781Forwards783
Best: 1032EvenBest: 1054
966Backs983
Best: 1211HUD +17Best: 1239
949Halves1000
Best: 949HUD +51Best: 1000
625Hooker683
HUD +58

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAS
Stat
HUD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
16.8pts
Avg Score
12.8pts
32.0pts
Avg Conceded
21.6pts
-15.2pts
Avg Margin
-8.8pts
766.0m
Run Metres
967.2m
3.4
Clean Breaks
3.4
250.2
Tackles
330.8
7.8
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Giants
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Giants
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

62%

Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -5.6

2/4 match predictions correct