# Castleford Tigers v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 34 – 8 Huddersfield Giants

_Castleford Tigers put Huddersfield Giants to the sword._

Half time: 16 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 62% / Huddersfield Giants 38% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 28 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Liam Hood (6' 1st), Darnell McIntosh (19'), George Lawler (25'), Tom Weaver (47'), Tom Weaver (66'), Ashton Golding (74') · Huddersfield Giants: Jacob Gagai (37'), George Flanagan (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 62% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 34–8 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 3 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers put 34 on Huddersfield Giants and won by 26, but even that scoreline undersells how one-sided it was. Look at the errors column: Huddersfield coughed the ball up 13 times to Castleford's 3. That's the number that tells you who actually controlled this game.

Liam Hood got things moving in the 6th minute, and by the 26th minute Castleford had rattled off four tries without reply to lead 16-0. Jacob Gagai got one back for Huddersfield just before the break to make it 16-4 at half-time, which was probably the closest the scoreboard ever looked to competitive.

It didn't stay that way. Tom Weaver crossed twice in the second half, either side of George Flanagan's try for Huddersfield, and then again in the 66th minute to push the margin past 20. Ashton Golding added a fifth Castleford try in the 74th to finish it off. Weaver had a night with the boot too, landing four conversions on top of his two tries.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye test showed. Castleford ran for 1,296 metres to Huddersfield's 1,058, broke the line 8 times to 2, and busted 39 tackles against Huddersfield's 18. Huddersfield actually offloaded more, 5 to 1, but with 13 errors that ball movement never turned into pressure. They did hold the discipline edge, conceding 6 penalties to Castleford's 8, which is about the only column they won all night.

That gap is worth sitting with given the form lines coming in. Huddersfield arrived averaging 330.8 tackles a game in their last five to Castleford's 250.2, and rated higher across forwards, backs, halves and hooker in the pre-match positional read. None of that showed up here. Castleford's line-break count and metres suggest their forward pack won the collisions that were supposed to go the other way.

Huddersfield's only points came through Gagai and Flanagan, and outside of those two moments they had little answer once Castleford built their first-half buffer. Their season form had them as the more defensively reliable side, conceding 21.6 a game on average against Castleford's 32.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,296** | Run metres | 1,058 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| 1 | Offloads | **5** |
| **3** | Errors | 13 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 0/2 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 3 | Errors | 13 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Castleford Tigers to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42, within 4 points. Castleford Tigers led 16–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (14/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 8 · Huddersfield Giants 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 62.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Huddersfield Giants by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers are the call at 62%, but Huddersfield Giants stay live at 38%. The ratings say otherwise: Huddersfield Giants sit 44 ELO points clear, 1358 to 1314, so the model is backing Castleford Tigers against the ratings gap.

On paper Huddersfield Giants shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Castleford Tigers, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Huddersfield Giants by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Castleford Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -15.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 769.0m | Run Metres | 969.6m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 250.2 | Tackles | 330.8 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R1 L · R2 L | 16.8 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R1 L · R2 L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Huddersfield Giants | 48 – 16 | Castleford Tigers | Huddersfield Giants 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R17 | Castleford Tigers | 12 – 30 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 30 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 50 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Huddersfield Giants | 34 – 10 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.74 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.96 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (2.07 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.74/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.48/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.07/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 4 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 100m/g | 68m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 89.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 84 | 29 · 66 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 340m/g | 359m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 17 | 7 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 209m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Centres 0.64/g (lg 0.46) +39% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.05) +140% · Wingers 1.44/g (lg 0.96) +50% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.46) +48%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 10 | Joe Westerman | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 15 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Ashworth | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | George Lawler | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 1/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 25' |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 2 | Tanguy Zenon | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 35% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 4 | Taane Milne | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Halsall | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Oliver Russell | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 6 | Olly Russell | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/14g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Tui Lolohea | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Patolo | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Billington | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Tristan Powell | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Rush | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew English | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | George King | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Huddersfield Giants hold the ELO advantage (1358 vs 1314), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.61). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1314 · Huddersfield Giants 1358 · ELO difference: 44 in favour of Huddersfield Giants

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)