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Super League | Round 3

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BARTERCARD ODSAL STADIUM • SUNDAY 1 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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BRD

Bradford Bulls

186
TO

Toulouse Olympique

✅ Model correct — backed Bradford Bulls at 73%

AI Win Probability

73%Bradford BullsFavourite

Bradford Bulls

73%

Toulouse Olympique

27%

AI Match Overview

Bradford Bulls are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. The model sees Bradford Bulls ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Toulouse Olympique with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts Toulouse Olympique by 4.1 points with a combined total of 28.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bradford Bulls to Win @1.37

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Toulouse Olympique -4.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Toulouse Olympique 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bradford Bulls
R1L
R2W

older → newer

24.0
Toulouse Olympique
R1W
R2W
16.8

Avg Conceded

18.5

Bradford Bulls

25.2

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

5.5

Bradford Bulls

-8.4

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1176

Bradford Bulls

854

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

5.5

Bradford Bulls

3.8

Toulouse Olympique

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRD
1506Overall1505
TO
ELO difference: +1 in favour of Bradford Bulls

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

919Forwards763
Best: 1294BRD +157Best: 925
994Backs1131
Best: 1178TO +137Best: 1433
1043Halves903
Best: 1043BRD +140Best: 903
1005Hooker667
BRD +338

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRD
Stat
TO
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
24.0pts
Avg Score
16.8pts
18.5pts
Avg Conceded
25.2pts
5.5pts
Avg Margin
-8.4pts
1175.5m
Run Metres
854.4m
5.5
Clean Breaks
3.8
316.5
Tackles
201.6
13.5
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulls
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Olympique
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Olympique
5
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Bulls
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

73%

Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 28 · Line: -4.1

2/4 match predictions correct