# Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity?

Alphr's Super League model makes Wigan Warriors a clear 71% favourite over Wakefield Trinity in Semi Finals. Predicted result: Wigan Warriors by 9 in a high-scoring game (49 total, over the 36.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Wigan Warriors lead on ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.09.24 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity
Sun, 27 Sept, 02:30 am AEST · The Brick Community Stadium · Semi Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 70.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity +13.5 — model probability 70.9%
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 70.9%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 36.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview

**Wigan Warriors vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Sept 2026, 09:51 pm_

Wigan Warriors meet Wakefield Trinity in Super League Semi Finals at The Brick Community Stadium. The model makes Wigan Warriors the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Wigan Warriors are the call here, 71% to get through, and the model isn't losing sleep over it.

The engine room of that number is the ratings gap. Wigan Warriors sit at 1864, Wakefield Trinity at 1691, a 173-point split that's hard to argue with. Add in the form line, five wins from five for Wigan Warriors against four from five for Wakefield Trinity, and the model's got plenty to lean on.

Positionally it's mostly one-way traffic where it matters most. Wigan Warriors' halves rate at 989 against Wakefield Trinity's 600, a gap you don't often see this late in a season. The backs are 1181 to 1088 in Wigan Warriors' favour too, and the hooker battle goes their way, 1000 to 893. Wakefield Trinity do hold an edge up front, 860 to 809 in the forwards, and that's paired with Venue Advantage as the two things the model credits them with. It's just not enough to close the gap on its own.

Form splits are stark. Wigan Warriors have been putting up 39.2 points a game across their last five while conceding just 7.6, an average winning margin of 31.6. Wakefield Trinity have been scoring 22 and leaking 16, a much tighter margin of 6. Wigan Warriors are also running more metres, 1583.4 to 1465, and generating almost double the clean breaks, 7.2 to 4.4. Wakefield Trinity actually tackle more, 316 to 303, and make fewer errors, 10.2 to 7.8, so there's some discipline there, it's just not translating to the scoreboard the same way.

The runs into this one tell a similar story. Wigan Warriors have gone WWWWW across their last five. Wakefield Trinity opened with a loss before reeling off four straight, LWWWW, so they're not cold, but they've had less margin for error along the way.

On score shape, the model has Wigan Warriors by 8.6 with a combined total near 49. That lines up with an Over on the market's total line of 36.5, priced at $1.92, which is the model's own pick rather than a market read.

The market has Wigan Warriors at $1.11, well short of what the model would price them at, an edge of minus 19.2%. That's the model saying the price has run past the probability, not that Wigan Warriors won't win, just that there's not much left in it at that number. On the margin market, Wigan Warriors are $3.30, again the model's own pick with no edge claimed. Wakefield Trinity's line at 13.5 points is priced at $1.85, also just the model's pick with nothing to back it against.

For Wakefield Trinity to turn this over, the forward pack edge and home ground need to do a lot of heavy lifting, and the halves gap needs to close fast, because 989 to 600 is the kind of number that tends to decide finals football on its own.

Net it out and the model's read is straightforward: Wigan Warriors, comfortably, on the back of the ratings gap, the backline and the halves, with Wakefield Trinity's forward edge and home advantage the only things keeping this from being a rout on paper.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 39.2pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1583.4m | Run Metres | 1465.0m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 303.0 | Tackles | 316.0 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 39.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · EF W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2026 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 48 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2025 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 44 – 2 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 10 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2023 | R18 | Wakefield Trinity | 27 – 26 | Wigan Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Marshall, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Scott, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.54/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.71/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.93/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.39/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 15 | 13 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 105m/g | 127m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 105 · 38 | 69 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 530m/g | 456m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.3/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 84.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 12 | 21 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 414m/g | 358m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15% · Centres 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.15) -7% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.2) -25% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.3) -27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 22g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 9/9g | 0/0g | 58% | — |
| 2 | Austin Daniel | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 16 in 24g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·3·1) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 50% | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 38% | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 13 in 17g | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·3·1·2) | 18/15g | 0/0g | 42% | — |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 13/12g | 0/0g | 66% | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 11 | Kian Mcdermott | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 14 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 2 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| 15 | Sam Walters | INT | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 17 | Shea connor | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 18 | Jack Farrimond | INT | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 39% | — |
| 19 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| 20 | Liam Farrell | INT | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 9/19g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| 21 | Zach Eckersley | INT | 27 in 26g | 12/10g (1·3·2·1·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 68% | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 11 in 27g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 32% | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 18 in 16g | 11/10g (2·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·1·2) | 9/17g | 0/0g | 54% | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 7 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·2·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — |
| 14 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 15 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 23g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 25g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| 17 | Jay Pitts | INT | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| 18 | Jake Trueman | INT | 4 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| 19 | Jayden Myers | INT | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 36% | — |
| 20 | Max Jowitt | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 32% | — |
| 21 | Emre Guler | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1864 · Wakefield Trinity 1691 · ELO difference: 173 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 40.5% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 30.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Halves Control | 10.1% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 4.6% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.2% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Wigan Warriors win, around 29–20 (total ~49 — over the 36.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 36.5 line (model projects 49).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-24 11:51 UTC (latest tip update)