# Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves — Super League Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves?

Alphr's Super League model rates Leeds Rhinos a 58% favourite over Warrington Wolves in Semi Finals. Predicted result: Leeds Rhinos by 6 in a high-scoring game (49 total, over the 34.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Leeds Rhinos lead on ELO Difference, Rest Days and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Brodie Croft leads at +13.6% edge.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.09.24 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves
Sat, 26 Sept, 05:00 am AEST · AMT Headingley Stadium · Semi Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 57.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos -3.5 — model probability 57.6%
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 57.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 34.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 6 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview

**Leeds Rhinos vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Sept 2026, 09:51 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 01:36 pm_

Leeds Rhinos meet Warrington Wolves in Super League Semi Finals at AMT Headingley Stadium. The model makes Leeds Rhinos the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Leeds Rhinos get the nod at 58% but Warrington Wolves stay live at 42%. The model is leaning towards Leeds Rhinos, backed by a 23-point ELO advantage, 1704 to 1682. It is not all one-way traffic though. Warrington Wolves have won four of their last five while Leeds Rhinos have managed just two.

The factors are split down the middle which keeps things interesting. Leeds Rhinos have the edge in ELO Difference, Rest Days and Forward Pack. Warrington Wolves however shine in Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. It is a tug-of-war with the model predicting a tight finish, Leeds Rhinos by 5.6 and a combined total of 49.

Positionally Leeds Rhinos forward pack stands strong with a 933 rating towering over Warrington Wolves 847. But it is a different story in the backline and halves. Warrington Wolves boast a hefty lead there, 1079 to 818 in the backs and 1124 to 732 in the halves. Leeds Rhinos might be relying on their forwards to do the heavy lifting.

Head to head there is not much to split these two. The venue might give Warrington Wolves a slight boost but Leeds Rhinos are not strangers to AMT Headingley Stadium. The last meeting is not on the books but the history suggests a close contest.

Recent form tells its own tale. Leeds Rhinos average 27.2 points per game conceding 20. Warrington Wolves score slightly less at 25.8 but concede only 17.8. Their average margins are neck and neck, 7.2 for Leeds Rhinos and 8 for Warrington Wolves. It is a game of fine margins.

The stakes are high with a spot in the final on the line. Rest days favour Leeds Rhinos which might be a crucial edge. The referee is not in the mix so discipline could swing either way.

The market has Leeds Rhinos at $1.58 but the model sees a slight edge elsewhere. Margin and total lines are not priced by the model but it leans towards Leeds Rhinos at -3.5 and over 34.5 points. It is a calculated call not a guarantee.

For Warrington Wolves to upset the odds they will need their backs and halves to step up. But with Leeds Rhinos forward dominance and rest advantage the model is backing its pick against those positional numbers and recent win rate. A tight match but Leeds Rhinos are the pick to edge it.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Brodie Croft — model probability 50.0%
- Danny Walker — model probability 20.8%
- Kallum Watkins — model probability 26.2%
- Arron Lindop — model probability 31.7%
- Albert Hopoate — model probability 31.2%
- Matthew Ashton — model probability 37.1%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Arron Lindop — model probability 4.1%
- Albert Hopoate — model probability 3.6%
- Brodie Croft — model probability 6.7%
- Ryan Hall — model probability 3.2%
- Matthew Ashton — model probability 4.6%

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.8pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1491.6m | Run Metres | 1477.4m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 284.8 | Tackles | 306.4 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L | 27.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 W · EF W | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Warrington Wolves | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2026 | R6 | Leeds Rhinos | 26 – 22 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R14 | Leeds Rhinos | 36 – 12 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R6 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 34 | Warrington Wolves |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 7th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.86 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 1st there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.52/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 6th) | 0.64/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.54/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 3.11/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 2.07/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 9 | 16 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 58 · 46 | 42 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 347m/g | 387m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 86.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 7 | 17 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 338m/g | 294m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.26) -19% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fergus McCormack | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 29 in 20g | 11/10g (1·1·2·3·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/2g | 0/0g | 73% | — |
| 3 | Ned Mccormack | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — |
| 4 | Harry Newman | CE | 10 in 25g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 32% | — |
| 5 | Riley Lumb | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 39% | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 28 in 26g | 11/10g (3·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 50% Great value +13.6%; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 12 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2·1·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 38% | — |
| 13 | Presley Cassell | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — |
| 14 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — |
| 16 | Zak Lloyd | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| 18 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 4 in 27g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 26% Great value +7.7% |
| 19 | Keenan Palasia | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — |
| 20 | Ryan Hall | INT | 10 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 10/19g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 27% Market priced; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 3% Market priced |
| 21 | George Brown | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 22% Market priced |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 15 in 26g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 31% Great value +3.4%; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% Market priced |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 32% Great value +5.4%; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% Market priced |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 32% | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 37% Fair odds; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% Market priced |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 10/23g | 0/0g | 32% | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/17g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $11.50 AI 21% Great value +12.1% |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/23g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| 18 | Cai Taylor-Wray | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| 19 | Ewan Irwin | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — |
| 20 | Joshua Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| 21 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1704 · Warrington Wolves 1682 · ELO difference: 23 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 25.8% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 25.1% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Halves Control | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Rest Days | 11.5% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.3% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 2.8% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Leeds Rhinos win, around 27–22 (total ~49 — over the 34.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Brodie Croft (6.7%), then Matthew Ashton (4.6%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 34.5 line (model projects 49).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 03:36 UTC (latest tip update)