# Warrington Wolves v Hull KR — Super League Play-off Eliminators 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 35 – 12 Hull KR

_Warrington Wolves run down Hull KR._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 60% / Hull KR 40% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 20 Sept, 02:30 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Ben Currie (3' 1st), Matty Ashton (38' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (42' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (59' Tipped ⚡), Albert Hopoate (63' Tipped ⚡), Toby King (78') · Hull KR: Joe Burgess (35' Tipped ⚡), Dean Hadley (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 60% | Won |
| Hull KR | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Play-off Eliminators 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Sept 2026, 09:49 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:53 pm_

Warrington Wolves 35–12 Hull KR in Super League Play-off Eliminators at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves defeated Hull KR 35–12 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. The scoreline suggests a straightforward win, but the numbers reveal a more nuanced story. Warrington's control of possession at 57% and territory at 58% was pivotal. Both teams missed 23 tackles early on, but Warrington capitalised better on their opportunities, which shifted the game in their favour.

The match started with Ben Currie scoring in the third minute for Warrington. Hull KR responded with a try from Joe Burgess in the 35th minute, narrowing the gap. However, Matty Ashton scored just before half-time, giving Warrington a 12–6 lead at the break. This try was crucial, as Warrington maintained their momentum into the second half.

In the second half, Warrington's attack was relentless. Matty Ashton added two more tries to complete his hat-trick. Albert Hopoate and Toby King also scored, while George Williams added a drop goal in the 74th minute. Warrington's total of 1,683 run metres compared to Hull KR's 1,127 highlighted their dominance. They also led in line breaks, 8 to 3, showcasing their attacking prowess. Ewan Irwin was reliable with the boot, converting five times.

Hull KR had brief moments of hope, particularly when Dean Hadley scored in the 52nd minute. They managed more offloads, 7 to Warrington’s 3, but their defence struggled with 34 missed tackles. With completion rates close (Warrington at 80%, Hull KR at 75%), the difference lay in Warrington's ability to minimise errors when it mattered.

Warrington's recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, contrasted with Hull KR's single win in the same period. Pre-match predictions gave Warrington a 60% chance of winning, expecting a narrow 1.3-point margin. Instead, they secured a 23-point victory, demonstrating their superior form.

The predicted total score of 48 was nearly accurate, with the actual score totalling 47. Warrington's backline, rated 834, outperformed Hull KR’s 669. Despite Hull KR's stronger hooker, Warrington's halves and forwards provided the necessary balance and attack to dominate.

In the end, Warrington Wolves showcased their strength in a match that had moments of competition but was largely a testament to their power and precision. Hull KR had their chances but couldn't match Warrington's relentless pace and efficiency.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **58%** | Territory | 42% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,683** | Run metres | 1,127 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 3 | Offloads | **7** |
| **92.0%** | Tackle efficiency | 90.9% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **7.6** | Metres per run | 6.9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/6 | Conversions | 2/2 |
| 1/1 | Penalty Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 0 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 23 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 47, within 1 points. Warrington Wolves led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 23. The model went 5/17 on this match. The over 36.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (10/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 7 · Hull KR 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 60.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR +5.5 — model probability 60.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 60.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 36.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 1 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call, 60% in the model's eyes, and the biggest reason is written in the ratings. Hull KR get one thing going for them, extra rest, and that's about the extent of their case on paper.

The ELO gap is 129 points, 1658 to 1529, and it's not close in the areas that tend to decide finals footy either. Warrington's halves rate at 949 against Hull KR's 635, which is a canyon, not a gap. The forward pack sits 874 to 776 and the backline 834 to 669, both clearly Warrington's. The one spot Hull KR win outright is hooker, 1342 to 1000, so if this game turns into a wrestle around the ruck, that's where it happens. Everywhere else, Warrington's just built better for finals football.

Form tells the same story from a different angle. Warrington have won 4 of their last 5, Hull KR just the 1. Warrington are averaging 25.6 points a game and conceding 21, a healthy plus-4.6 margin. Hull KR are averaging 17.6 and leaking 30.8, sitting at minus-13.2. Run metres favour Warrington too, 1413.6 to 1127.4, with more clean breaks, 5.6 to 3.6, and fewer errors, 8.2 to 9.8. Hull KR do rack up more tackles, 338 to 311, which tracks with a team that's spent more time defending than attacking lately. The last-five sequences make it plain: Warrington's WWWLW against Hull KR's LLLWL. One of those is a side building momentum, the other's trying to find some.

Rest Days is the lone factor tilting Hull KR's way, and it's worth naming because it's the only thing the model gives them. Everything else on the ledger, ELO Difference, Halves Control, Recent Win Rate, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, sits with Warrington.

Add it up and the model has Warrington winning by 1.3, with the two sides combining for around 48 points. That's not a beatdown, that's a coin flip with a thumb on the scale.

The market has Warrington at $1.46 for the head-to-head, and the model actually sees an edge of minus-8.4% there, meaning it's not as keen on that price as the market is. Worth knowing before you back the favourite just because the ratings say so.

On the props, the model likes Hull KR on the margin band, the 5.5-point line, at $1.85, though it doesn't price that market itself so there's no stated edge, just the pick. It also fancies Warrington on the outright margin at $3.30, and leans Over on the total at 36.5, priced at $1.85, both again without a claimed edge attached.

For Hull KR to cause trouble, it probably needs to happen up front around that hooker advantage and depend on Warrington coughing up the ball, because on every other measure they're behind and trending the wrong way. Warrington are the read here, not comfortably, but consistently, across the ratings, the form line and the positional matchups. Line-ball enough to watch, lopsided enough to lean one way.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 30.8pts |
| 4.6pts | Avg Margin | -13.2pts |
| 1413.6m | Run Metres | 1127.4m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 311.0 | Tackles | 338.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R2 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 W | 25.6 |
| Hull KR | R2 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 12 | Hull KR |
| 2026 | R2 | Hull KR | 28 – 34 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull KR | 28 – 20 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R12 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 31 | Hull KR |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 10 – 8 | Warrington Wolves |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.96 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 4th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.85 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 3rd there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.96/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.85/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 0.81/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.07/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 38 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 47 | 53 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 401m/g | 615m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.7/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 305m/g | 302m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.3) -10% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.51) -25% · Wingers 0.66/g (lg 0.99) -33%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.47/g (lg 0.51) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 15 in 26g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/19g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 42' 59' |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 10/18g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/17g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 18 | Cai Taylor-Wray | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 19 | Ewan Irwin | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 20 | Joshua Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 21 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 9 in 26g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 13 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 11/19g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 3% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 18 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 17 in 20g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 8 in 23g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 8 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.25 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 24g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 4 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 6 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 18 | Arthur Mourgue | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 19 | Dean Hadley | INT | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 20 | Lee Kershaw | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 21 | Frankie Dearlove | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1658 · Hull KR 1529 · ELO difference: 129 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 54.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Halves Control | 16.7% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 12.7% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 6.2% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 4.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.6% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:53 UTC (latest tip update)