# York Knights v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 35 – 16 Bradford Bulls

_York Knights conquer Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 53% / Bradford Bulls 47% · LNER Community Stadium · Fri, 11 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Scott Galeano (22' Tipped ⚡), Ben Jones-Bishop (27'), Toa Mata'afa (37'), Jesse Dee (50'), Xavier Va'a (63'), David Nofoaluma (67') · Bradford Bulls: Ryan Sutton (15' 1st Tipped ⚡), Riley Dean (33'), Jayden Okunbor (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 53% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Sept 2026, 08:05 am · Last updated: 23 Oct 2026, 12:36 am_

York Knights 35–16 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 27 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen errors. That's what Bradford Bulls served up at LNER Community Stadium, twice as many as York Knights, and it's why they walked away beaten 35-16.

The scoreboard didn't always reflect the gap. Ryan Sutton crashed over inside 15 minutes to put Bradford Bulls 6-0 up, and for a stretch it looked like their much-vaunted forward pack, rated 906 to York Knights' 733 coming in, might do the job it was built for. It didn't last. York Knights hit back through Scott Galeano, then Ben Jones-Bishop, then Toa Mata'afa, and by the 38th minute it was 18-12 at the break. Bradford Bulls had matched them try for try in that opening period through Sutton and Riley Dean, but they were doing it the hard way, coughing up ball York Knights simply weren't.

That discipline with possession is the whole story of the second half. York Knights finished with just 8 errors to Bradford Bulls' 16, and once the game opened up after the break, that gap turned into points. Jesse Dee crossed in the 50th minute, Xavier Va'a added another just after the hour, and David Nofoaluma finished it off in the 67th. Three tries, no reply, and suddenly an 18-12 half-time lead was 34-12. Jayden Okunbor's try for Bradford Bulls in the 75th was too little, too late.

The gainline numbers back up what the eye test suggested. York Knights ran for 1,323 metres to Bradford Bulls' 1,076, and busted 40 tackles to their opponents' 24. Six line breaks to five is a narrow edge on paper, but the 40 tackle busts tell you York Knights were doing more with the ball once it was in hand, not just running into space. Bradford Bulls' backline, rated lower coming in at 684 to York Knights' 761, had no answer for it.

Bradford Bulls did have the personnel edge in one spot that stands out on the sheet: their hooker rating of 1525 dwarfs York Knights' 646. Whatever that was worth, it didn't show up where it mattered. Discipline went against them too, 8 penalties conceded to York Knights' 6, and against a side already running riot with ball in hand, that's just more opportunity handed over.

Form lines had both sides arriving with one win from their last five, York Knights on the back of an LLLLW run and Bradford Bulls the same. Bradford Bulls had actually been the better side for metres over that stretch, averaging 1100.6 to York Knights' 1051.2, which makes Saturday's reversal a genuine form flip rather than a formality.

Alphr's model had York Knights favourites at 53% and picked the margin at 9.3, with a total of 46. The final margin blew out to 19 and the total landed at 51, so the direction was right even if the scale of it wasn't. The under 54.5 call held up. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one leans toward the ledger's better side.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,323** | Run metres | 1,076 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **40** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| **8** | Errors | 16 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 8 | Errors | 16 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted York Knights to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 9.3 was reasonable against the actual 19-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 51, within 6 points. York Knights led 18–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 19. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties York Knights 6 · Bradford Bulls 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls +9.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between York Knights and Bradford Bulls. The model can't split them, landing on York Knights at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: York Knights sit 36 ELO points clear, 1340 to 1304.

York Knights own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The margin model has York Knights by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 32.4pts | Avg Conceded | 37.6pts |
| -16.4pts | Avg Margin | -23.6pts |
| 1051.2m | Run Metres | 1100.6m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 306.4 | Tackles | 374.4 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W | 16.0 |
| Bradford Bulls | R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Bradford Bulls lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Bradford Bulls | 30 – 20 | York Knights | Bradford Bulls 62% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.42 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (2.88 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.04 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.58/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.04/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.42/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.62/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.27/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.88/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.73/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.62/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 22 | 13 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 129m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 91.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 74 | 44 · 67 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 414m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 20 | 12 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 298m/g | 278m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.27/g (lg 0.06) +350% · Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.21) +119% · Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.11) +109%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.65/g (lg 0.26) +150% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.11) +73% · Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.21) +67%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 4 in 8g | 7/10g (3·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 36% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 11 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Liam Harris | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 39% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 8% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 7 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 6 in 26g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/12g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Jack Martin | INT | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Foster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 6 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 3 | Waqa Blake | CE | 10 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Dan Russell | CE | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 5 | Connor Wynne | WG | 9 in 22g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Riley Dean | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $13.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 5 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Ebon Scurr | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | William Gardiner | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Esan Marsters | INT | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Gill | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Leon Ruan | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1340 · Bradford Bulls 1304 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of York Knights

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 42.6% | York Knights |
| 2 | Halves Control | 21.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 6.8% | Bradford Bulls |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 6.7% | Bradford Bulls |
| 5 | Rest Days | 6.1% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 4.2% | York Knights |
| 7 | ELO Difference | 2.6% | York Knights |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — York Knights predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-22 13:36 UTC (latest tip update)