# Warrington Wolves v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 26 – 14 Toulouse Olympique

_Warrington Wolves howl past Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 8 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 55% / Toulouse Olympique 45% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 12 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Arron Lindop (11'), Lachlan Webster (39'), Max Wood (52'), Arron Lindop (58'), Josh Smith (71' Tipped ⚡) · Toulouse Olympique: Paul Ulberg (8' 1st), Mathieu Pons (33'), Romeo Tropis (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 55% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Sept 2026, 01:51 pm · Last updated: 22 Oct 2026, 10:24 pm_

Warrington Wolves 26–14 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 27 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one pegged pretty well. Warrington Wolves were tipped to win, and they did, 26-14 against Toulouse Olympique at Halliwell Jones Stadium. The predicted margin was just under three points, a bit shy of the 12-point gap they finally managed. The total score prediction wasn't far off either, landing within four points of the actual 40. This time, the numbers came through.

The match itself was a bit of a seesaw. Both teams went into the sheds at 8-8. Toulouse Olympique showed early spark, with Paul Ulberg crossing first in the 8th minute. Arron Lindop brought Warrington back level just three minutes later. Mathieu Pons nudged Toulouse ahead in the first half before Lachlan Webster squared it up again for Warrington just before the break.

Toulouse Olympique held a narrow lead in the second half when Romeo Tropis found the line in the 48th minute. Cesar Rouge’s conversion briefly pushed Toulouse ahead to 14-8. But that was the last time they'd bother the scoreboard. Warrington Wolves turned up the heat from then on, starting with Max Wood's try only four minutes later. Lindop struck again, and Josh Smith rounded it off, putting Toulouse's hopes to rest.

Warrington's victory was built on reducing their mistakes and improving in the second half. They only coughed up 7 errors compared to Toulouse's 13, showing enough discipline with the ball to seize the moments that mattered. Leon Hayes' assured conversions added to their tally, making sure they capitalised on their tries.

Toulouse Olympique was a touch sharper in attack, notching 5 line breaks to Warrington's 4, and they managed to bust 27 tackles, 8 more than Warrington. But too often, they'd spoil their own show. Despite their undoubted flair, their discipline did them no favours either, conceding just 5 penalties to Warrington's 7 but not translating that edge into points.

Positionally, Warrington's numbers stacked up nicely to the model's prediction. Their halves were more effective, rated at 864 against Toulouse's 801, a gap that seemed to play out on the scoreboard. Their forwards and backs both had the upper edge. Even though Toulouse’s hooker wasn't far behind Jake Clarke, Warrington’s superior all-round play, especially in the second half, saw them pull away.

Both teams came in with contrasting recent form. Warrington had a better run, winning four of their last five, compared to Toulouse's three. An average score of 26.4 points per game for both sides indicated a competitive matchup, and that it was, at least for the first 50 minutes. But Warrington's tighter grip with the ball and ability to finish decisive plays won out in the end.

The model had the overall story straight. Warrington were expected to edge it, and they did, with the result aligning closely to the predictions. In the end, Warrington's steadier hands earned the win, and the numbers backed it up. Simple as that.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| **1,177** | Run metres | 1,146 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **27** |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| **7** | Errors | 13 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 7 | Errors | 13 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 2.9 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 7 · Toulouse Olympique 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 54.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +3.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 55%, but Toulouse Olympique stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 161 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1481. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Toulouse Olympique.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 3 of 5 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1426.6m | Run Metres | 1204.0m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 309.0 | Tackles | 302.8 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R23 W · R2 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L | 26.4 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R22 L · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Toulouse Olympique | 16 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | Toulouse Olympique 52% ✗ |
| 2022 | R23 | Warrington Wolves | 32 – 18 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R3 | Toulouse Olympique | 18 – 32 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 9th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.69/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.12/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.92/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 1.23/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 10 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 200m/g | 114m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 90.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 44 | 55 · 65 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 399m/g | 558m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.8/g | 18.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 28 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 306m/g | 279m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.51) +59% · Wingers 1.5/g (lg 0.99) +52% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Webster | WG | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 44% | — | 🏉 11' 58' |
| 4 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/9g | 49% | — | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Patrick Irwin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/24g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Samuel Powell | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/33g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Ewan Smith | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/26g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Charlie Mckler | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Coop | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/10g | 5% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 16 | Thomas Mckinney | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Benjamin Hartill | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 9 in 23g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 10 in 21g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 55% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 3 | Mathieu Jussaume | CE | 16 in 23g | 8/10g (0·2·3·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 5 | Mathieu Pons | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 3 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.25 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $51.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $34.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Louis Grossemy | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1642 · Toulouse Olympique 1481 · ELO difference: 161 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 25.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 25.5% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Halves Control | 15.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 7.8% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Rest Days | 3.4% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-22 11:24 UTC (latest tip update)