# St Helens v Hull KR — Super League Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 36 – 12 Hull KR

_St Helens march all over Hull KR._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 54% / Hull KR 46% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 12 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Mark Percival (25' 1st), Jonny Lomax (33'), Jonny Lomax (39'), Deon Cross (62'), Jacob Host (66'), Harry Robertson (69') · Hull KR: Bill Leyland (43'), Flynn Holden (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 54% | Won |
| Hull KR | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Sept 2026, 01:51 pm_

St Helens 36–12 Hull KR in Super League Round 27 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen points to nil at the break, and St Helens hadn't broken a sweat doing it. Mark Percival opened the account in the 25th minute, Jonny Lomax struck twice more before the half was out, and by the 39th minute the home side had scored three tries in fourteen minutes without reply. Hull KR came out to a scoreboard that already looked broken.

The second half was different, but not decisive. Hull KR found some rhythm through Bill Leyland in the 43rd minute and Flynn Holden in the 51st, both converted by Jack Charles, and for a spell it was 18-12 and something like a contest. That's as close as it got.

St Helens shut the door hard. Deon Cross restored the buffer in the 62nd minute, and then the game turned into a procession: Jacob Host in the 66th, Harry Robertson in the 69th, both converted, and the margin blew out to 36-12 by the 70th minute. Twenty-four unanswered points across the two bursts either side of Hull KR's brief rally.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. St Helens ran for 1,506 metres to Hull KR's 1,035, and turned that ball-in-hand advantage into 11 line breaks against 4. Forty-four tackle busts to 38 and 18 offloads to just 6 tell you St Helens weren't just running into space, they were creating it and giving it away with quick hands once they found it.

Hull KR actually shaded the discipline count, giving away 5 penalties to St Helens' 7, and were tidier with the ball too, at 12 errors to St Helens' 11. None of it mattered much when the other side's structure was that much stronger. The halves rating going in had St Helens at 1100 against Hull KR's 623, a gap that size in the pivots was always going to show up in broken play, which is exactly where St Helens did their damage.

Hull KR's one positional edge, at hooker, 1000 to 714, never got the chance to matter. When your forwards are only just behind, 868 to 892, and your backs are miles off, 760 to 903, you need the middle third to win you field position, and Hull KR's halves couldn't get them there.

Alphr's model had this as tight on paper: St Helens favoured at 54% with a rating edge of 1464 to 1581 and an expected margin of just 2 points on a total of 38. It got the winner right but nowhere near the story. The actual margin was 24, not 2, so the margin call missed badly, though the under on 54.5 total points landed and Hull KR comfortably covered the 34.5 line.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,506** | Run metres | 1,035 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **44** | Tackle busts | 38 |
| **18** | Offloads | 6 |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 11 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. Hull KR covered the 34.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties St Helens 7 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 53.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR +34.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 2 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 54%, but Hull KR stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull KR sit 117 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1464, so the model is backing St Helens against the ratings gap.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has St Helens by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.8pts |
| 1182.8m | Run Metres | 1196.8m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 311.2 | Tackles | 339.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L | 23.2 |
| Hull KR | R23 W · R2 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Hull KR | 52 – 10 | St Helens | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Hull KR | 20 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull KR | 12 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Hull KR | 34 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | St Helens | 10 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.04 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.88 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.15/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.69/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.81/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 7th) | 2.88/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.23/g (def 10th) | 0.85/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 15 | 37 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 197m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 49 | 52 · 41 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 474m/g | 619m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 79.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 16 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 328m/g | 308m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.31) -13% · Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.51) -29% · Wingers 0.67/g (lg 0.99) -32%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · Wingers 0.87/g (lg 0.99) -12% · 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.31) -13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 12 in 18g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/14g | 39/70g | 42% | — | — |
| 2 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 11 in 26g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 16/25g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 20/52g | 14% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 6/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 5 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 14/70g | 10% | — | 🏉 33' 39' |
| 7 | Harry Robertson | HB | 7 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/22g | 30% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 8 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Humphreys | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/42g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | William Keeley | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Host | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 4% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 15 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jed Cartwright | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flynn Holden | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 51' |
| 2 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Noah Booth | CE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Louix Gorman | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 5 | Harvey Horne | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 17 in 19g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 12/14g | 3/8g | 50% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Charles | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Zachary Fishwick | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bill Leyland | HK | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 10 | Cobie Wainhouse | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Dearlove | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Ryan Westerman | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Alfie Wainberg-woods | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Declan Murphy | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Gorman | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Theo Middlemas | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Alfie Petty | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1581 vs 1464), but the market favours St Helens (@1.03). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1464 · Hull KR 1581 · ELO difference: 117 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 45.5% | — |
| 2 | Halves Control | 13.8% | St Helens |
| 3 | ELO Difference | 9.9% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 8.2% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Rest Days | 4.8% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — St Helens predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-10 03:51 UTC (latest tip update)