# Leeds Rhinos v Hull FC — Super League Round 27 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 12 – 18 Hull FC

_Hull FC hold off a fast-finishing Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 75% / Hull FC 25% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 12 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Chris Hankinson (29'), Kallum Watkins (77') · Hull FC: Logan Moy (20' 1st), Lloyd Kemp (51'), Lennon Clark (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 75% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 17.0 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 27 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Sept 2026, 01:51 pm · Last updated: 22 Oct 2026, 08:46 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 12–18 Hull FC in Super League Round 27 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked Leeds Rhinos here, and liked them a lot. An ELO gap of 1751 to 1309, a 75% win probability, a predicted margin of 17 points. Hull FC had other ideas and won 18-12 at AMT Headingley Stadium. That's not a near-miss for the model, it's a full reversal.

The scoreboard backs up how wrong the pre-match picture was. Locked at 6-6 at half-time, this was meant to be Leeds pulling clear in the second half given the ratings gap in the halves (1092 to 832) and at hooker (1048 to 600). Instead Hull FC did the pulling. Logan Moy opened the scoring in the 20th minute, Lloyd Kemp's conversion made it 0-6, and Leeds only got back level through Chris Hankinson's try and a Jake Connor conversion in the 29th and 31st minutes. From there it was all Hull FC until the clock nearly ran out: Kemp scored and converted himself in the 51st and 53rd minutes, Lennon Clark crossed in the 72nd with Kemp adding the extras again, and by the time Kallum Watkins finished it off for Leeds in the 77th, the margin was already too big to chase down.

Look at the running stats and you'd swear Leeds won comfortably. They out-gained Hull FC 1,567 metres to 1,014, out-offloaded them 20 to 7, and edged the line-break count 5 to 4. On paper that's a dominant attacking performance. On the scoreboard it's a loss. The gap that actually mattered was cleaner: 17 errors to 12, and 4 penalties conceded to 3. Hull FC did less with the ball but did it tidier, and in a six-point game that's the difference that counts.

It's a strange one for the form guide too. Leeds came in averaging 29.6 points a game with an average margin of plus 8.8, while Hull FC arrived at minus 1 off the back of a WLWLL run. Momentum, ratings, positional strength, all of it pointed one way. Kemp was the one player who ignored the script completely, with a try and three conversions doing the damage in the second half.

For Leeds, the volume of ball they ran and the offloads they threw suggest the attacking system worked. It just wasn't backed up when it counted. Seventeen errors against a side that only coughed up 12 is the kind of gap that turns pressure into points for the other mob.

Alphr's model isn't going to pretend this one was close to right. It called the total under 54.5 correctly, with 30 points on the board, but missed the margin by 23 points, tipping Leeds Rhinos by 17 when Hull FC won by 6.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,567** | Run metres | 1,014 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 30 | Tackle busts | 30 |
| **20** | Offloads | 7 |
| 17 | Errors | **12** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 17 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 75% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.0 but the actual margin was 6 points. The model went 2/17 on this match. Hull FC covered the 24.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 4 · Hull FC 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 74.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +24.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 17 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 75% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 442 ELO points clear, 1751 to 1309. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull FC.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 5 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 17.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Margin | -1.0pts |
| 1428.0m | Run Metres | 1293.2m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 286.8 | Tackles | 286.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L | 29.6 |
| Hull FC | R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Hull FC | 24 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 68% ✗ |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull FC | 0 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 16 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 12 – 18 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Leeds Rhinos | 68 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.15 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 7th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Croft, 28 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.12 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.54/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 1.12/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3.15/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.15/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 2.15/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.65/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.81/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.69/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 8 | 6 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 89m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 89.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 58 · 45 | 47 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 339m/g | 550m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 7 | 14 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 341m/g | 297m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Wingers 0.77/g (lg 0.99) -22% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.26) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashley Handley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 29 in 19g | 12/10g (1·1·1·2·3·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 16/9g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.39 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 10 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 16/34g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 10 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 11/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 25g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/26g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 28 in 25g | 12/10g (1·3·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 17/35g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/31g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/38g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 29' |
| 12 | Presley Cassell | 2R | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 5% | — | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 6 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 3 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/24g | 14% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 4 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/31g | 18% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Davy Litten | CE | 10 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 7 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Connor Bailey | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Lloyd Kemp | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Arthur Romano | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Zak Hardaker | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Lennon Clark | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 72' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1751 · Hull FC 1309 · ELO difference: 442 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 56.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Halves Control | 8.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 8.3% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 5.9% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 2.7% | Hull FC |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 17 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-22 09:46 UTC (latest tip update)