# Wakefield Trinity v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 25 – 18 Warrington Wolves

_Wakefield Trinity roar back to see off Warrington Wolves from 8 down._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 42% / Warrington Wolves 58% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 06 Sept, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (26' 1st Tipped 🎯), Isaiah Vagana (42'), Isaiah Vagana (46'), Cameron Scott (69') · Warrington Wolves: Josh Smith (34' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (38'), Albert Hopoate (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 58% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.6 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Sept 2026, 08:52 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:30 am_

Wakefield Trinity 25–18 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 26 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ball control versus raw ambition, that is what it came down to at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Wakefield Trinity's 25–18 victory over Warrington Wolves showed the value of risk when it is backed by metres and muscle. Warrington Wolves kept the ball cleaner with just 7 errors to 10 and broke the line 6 times to 4, yet Trinity ran 1503 metres to 1411, posted 40 tackle busts to 27 and fired 23 offloads to 9. In the end the ambitious side won out.

Warrington Wolves led 14–6 at the break and probably thought they had this one wrapped up. Leon Hayes landed penalty goals in the 9th and 13th minutes for a 4–0 buffer. Tom Johnstone crossed for Trinity in the 26th minute and Max Jowitt converted two minutes later to square it at 6–4, but Josh Smith and Matty Ashton scored tries in the 34th and 38th minutes and Hayes added the conversion on the 39th to restore the eight-point gap.

Isaiah Vagana proved the game-changer for Wakefield. His quick double early in the second half, with tries in the 42nd and 46th minutes, flipped the script. Max Jowitt converted both to push the lead to 18–14 and suddenly Warrington were the ones chasing. Albert Hopoate levelled it at 18-all with his try in the 57th minute, yet the visitors could not regain their foothold.

Cameron Scott's try in the 69th minute, converted by Jowitt again, put Trinity back in front for good at 24–18. A field goal in the 77th added the extra cushion to seal the 25–18 result. Warrington's sharper attacking play should have delivered a different outcome. Their six line breaks to Wakefield's four highlighted that edge, yet it was Wakefield's doggedness and risk-taking in possession that told the full story.

The pre-match expectations certainly were not in Wakefield's favour. The market and Alphr’s model both leaned towards a Wolves win, with a predicted 10.6-point margin. Wakefield were rated 69 points lower than their opposition, and the model gave them just a 42% chance of success. But numbers do not always capture the intangibles, and in this case grit and guts overrode statistical probabilities.

Despite the Wolves' superior recent form, they came off a streak of five wins scoring an average of 31.2 points per game. Wakefield entered the match with an inconsistent record, averaging just 22 points themselves and sitting at a minus-2 average margin after their WLLLW run. Yet it was Wakefield's willingness to venture beyond the stats and numbers and try something different that took them home.

The victory was as much about belief and momentum as it was about skill. Wins like these do not come easy for a side like Wakefield, not when they have been outscored on average and concede more points than they score. But here at The Diy Kitchens Stadium it came together. For Wakefield Trinity it was a welcome upset, flipping control and conservatism on its head.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,503** | Run metres | 1,411 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **40** | Tackle busts | 27 |
| **23** | Offloads | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 58% prediction for Warrington Wolves, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.6 but the actual margin was 7 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 43, within 1 points. Wakefield Trinity trailed 6–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 25–18. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 4 · Warrington Wolves 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 58.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves +5.5 — model probability 58.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 58.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 11 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 58%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 69 ELO points clear, 1673 to 1604. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Wakefield Trinity.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 4 of 5 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 10.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 15.2pts |
| 1361.6m | Run Metres | 1488.2m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.4 |
| 324.8 | Tackles | 306.0 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 22.0 |
| Warrington Wolves | R22 W · R23 W · R2 W · R24 W · R25 W | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Warrington Wolves | 10 – 23 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 27 – 16 | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 40 – 10 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 30 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 42 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 7th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.04 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 2nd there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.6/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 0.72/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.92/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 3.04/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 8 | 16 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 90.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 64 · 46 | 38 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 397m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 11.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 86.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 17 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 308m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.26) +23% · Centres 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/11g | 7/18g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 10/11g | 43% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 9 in 25g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/21g | 28% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 4/20g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 15 in 14g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 9/15g | 12/18g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 4/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Mike McMeeken | 2R | 2 in 24g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 2/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 5 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/3g | 4/19g | 18% | — | 🏉 42' 46' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Trueman | INT | 4 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 3/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 10/23g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 14 in 25g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/17g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.00 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $51.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/10g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Charlie Mckler | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1673 vs 1604), but the market favours Wakefield Trinity (@1.61). The model sides with ELO, Warrington Wolves predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1604 · Warrington Wolves 1673 · ELO difference: 69 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 41.5% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 17.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Halves Control | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 3.8% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 2.9% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:30 UTC (latest tip update)