# Toulouse Olympique v Hull FC — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 44 – 30 Hull FC

_Toulouse Olympique see off Hull FC._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 60% / Hull FC 40% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sat, 05 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Henry O'Kane (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Luke Polselli (13' Tipped ⚡), James Roumanos (18'), Henry O'Kane (23' 1st Tipped ⚡), Paul Ulberg (34' Tipped ⚡), Cesar Rouge (66'), Olly Ashall-Bott (73' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Lewis Martin (50'), Aidan Sezer (55'), Logan Moy (57'), Aidan Sezer (69'), Lewis Martin (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 60% | Won |
| Hull FC | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 12:26 am_

Toulouse Olympique 44–30 Hull FC in Super League Round 26 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique beat Hull FC 44-30 at Stade Ernest Wallon, and on paper that's a 14-point win, comfortable enough. Look at the half-time score, though, and it's a completely different story: 30-0. Hull FC scored 30 points after the break and still lost by 14, which means a game that looked like a procession for 40 minutes turned into one Toulouse very nearly let slip.

The damage was done early and it was brutal. Henry O'Kane opened the scoring in the 6th minute, added a second in the 23rd, and by the 39th minute Toulouse led 30-0 off tries from O'Kane, Luke Polselli, James Roumanos and Paul Ulberg, with Cesar Rouge slotting everything through the boot, including a penalty goal just before the break. Hull FC didn't get on the board until the 50th minute, through Lewis Martin, and from there they scored 30 points of their own: two from Martin, two from Aidan Sezer, one from Logan Moy. Toulouse still had answers when it mattered, with Rouge scoring himself in the 66th minute and Olly Ashall-Bott crossing in the 73rd to push the margin back out past two scores before Hull's last try in the 78th made it 44-30.

The stat sheet backs up the idea that this wasn't as clean as the final scoreline suggests. Hull FC were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing up just 6 errors to Toulouse's 9. But Toulouse had the edge where it counts most, conceding only 5 penalties to Hull's 8, and that discipline gap mattered in a game this high-scoring. Toulouse were also the more dangerous side in general play, breaking the line 7 times to 4 and racking up 41 tackle busts to Hull's 30, on top of 1,226 run metres to 996. Offloads were close, 9 to 8, which says both sides were happy to keep the ball alive rather than play it safe.

The positional numbers going in help explain some of this. Toulouse held a huge edge at hooker, 1301 to 600, and that showed up in how quickly they turned early ball into points. Hull actually rated stronger in the forwards, 751 to 746, and in the halves, 832 to 801, and their second-half surge suggests those ratings weren't far off, just buried under an avalanche in the first 40. Toulouse's backs were rated marginally ahead too, 859 to 852, which lines up with the gap in line breaks.

Form coming in painted Toulouse as the shakier side, averaging 30 points conceded across their last five with a -12.4 average margin, against Hull's steadier 0.6. Hull's recent run, LWLWL, also had them averaging 1,414.4 run metres a game compared to Toulouse's 1,117.6. None of that showed up in the first half here, with Toulouse playing like the more settled team, but it lines up neatly with the fightback that followed.

Alphr's model had Toulouse as 60 percent favourites and predicted a 7.6-point win on a combined total of 40. The winner was right, and the margin wasn't far off at 14, but the total blew out to 74, some 34 points over the pre-match number. Toulouse covered the 6.5-point line comfortably in the end, even if for a long stretch of the second half it looked like they might not need to, and then looked like they might not manage it at all.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,226** | Run metres | 996 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 30 |
| **9** | Offloads | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | **6** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 5 |
| 8/9 | Goals | 5/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | 6 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 74 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 40. The model went 6/17 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 6.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (24/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 5 · Hull FC 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique -6.5 — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — model probability 60.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 8 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Toulouse Olympique are the call at 60%, but Hull FC stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Toulouse Olympique sit 134 ELO points clear, 1462 to 1328.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 2 of 4 factors including Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Toulouse Olympique, which says ELO Difference carry the most weight. The margin model has Toulouse Olympique by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Toulouse Olympique, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.6pts |
| 1117.6m | Run Metres | 1414.4m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 314.4 | Tackles | 311.0 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W | 17.6 |
| Hull FC | R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Hull FC lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Hull FC | 4 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC 73% ✗ |
| 2022 | R26 | Hull FC | 38 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R21 | Toulouse Olympique | 6 – 30 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2022 | R11 | Hull FC | 48 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 10th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.08/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.32/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 9th) | 1.08/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.24/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.84/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.68/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 13 | 4 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 113m/g | 89m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 89.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 62 | 44 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 557m/g | 554m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 84.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 13 | 14 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 278m/g | 300m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.26) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.84/g (lg 0.51) +65% · Wingers 1.48/g (lg 0.99) +49% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 8 in 22g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 9 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| 3 | Mathieu Jussaume | CE | 16 in 22g | 8/10g (0·0·2·3·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 56% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 23% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 3 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 23' |
| 12 | Louis Grossemy | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Olly Ashall-Bott | INT | 12 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 11 in 17g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Davy Litten | CE | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Arthur Romano | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 50' 78' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 55' 69' |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Lennon Clark | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 13 | Ligi Sao | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Lloyd Kemp | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Connor Bailey | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1462 · Hull FC 1328 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 41.4% | Hull FC |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 33.5% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.5% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 3.2% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 13:26 UTC (latest tip update)