# Toulouse Olympique v Hull FC — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 44 – 30 Hull FC

_Toulouse Olympique see off Hull FC._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 60% / Hull FC 40% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sat, 05 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Henry O'Kane (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Luke Polselli (13' Tipped ⚡), James Roumanos (18'), Henry O'Kane (23' 1st Tipped ⚡), Paul Ulberg (34' Tipped ⚡), Cesar Rouge (66'), Olly Ashall-Bott (73' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Lewis Martin (50'), Aidan Sezer (55'), Logan Moy (57'), Aidan Sezer (69'), Lewis Martin (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 60% | Won |
| Hull FC | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Hull FC Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 8 Sept 2026, 07:06 am_

Toulouse Olympique 44–30 Hull FC in Super League Round 26 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique set the tone early against Hull FC, racing to a commanding 30-0 lead by half-time at Stade Ernest Wallon. The pressure was on from the start, and despite a spirited second-half effort from Hull, the final score stood at 44-30 in favour of Toulouse. The hosts were relentless in the first half, crossing for five tries and leaving Hull with a mountain to climb.

Henry O'Kane opened the scoring in the sixth minute, setting off a flurry of tries for Toulouse. By the time Olly Ashall-Bott added the seventh try late in the game, the result was beyond doubt. Four tries in the first 25 minutes left Hull FC reeling, with Cesar Rouge's accurate boot converting six from six and adding two penalty goals to his tally.

Hull FC had a slight edge in possession at 51% and territory at 52%, and they were more disciplined with the ball, committing only six errors and completing 88% of their sets. However, Toulouse dominated in attack, running for 1,228 metres compared to Hull's 993 and making seven line breaks to Hull's four. With 41 tackle busts, Toulouse's attack was relentless, exposing Hull's defence, which missed 41 tackles compared to Toulouse's 29.

Defensively, Toulouse's tackle efficiency was superior at 90.3% against Hull's 84.5%. Hull's defensive line struggled under pressure, conceding eight penalties, three more than Toulouse. Paul Ulberg's try in the 34th minute and a penalty goal from Rouge before the break sealed Hull's fate in the first half.

Hull FC mounted a comeback after the break, with Lewis Martin and Aidan Sezer leading the charge. Sezer's kicking kept them in contention, and by the 59th minute, they had narrowed the gap to 30-18. But Toulouse responded, with Cesar Rouge and Olly Ashall-Bott extending the lead once more.

Pre-match predictions from our model anticipated a closer contest, with Toulouse expected to win by 7.6 points and a total of 40 points scored. The actual match defied these expectations, with a total of 74 points scored. Toulouse exceeded the predicted margin, covering the 6.5-point line, while the 60% win probability held true.

The match highlighted the contrast between Toulouse's attacking prowess and Hull's defensive struggles. Toulouse's backline, rated higher at 859 compared to Hull's 852, showcased their skill and creativity. Despite Hull's slightly stronger forward pack, Toulouse's fluid attack was decisive. The outcome reflected Toulouse's dominance in the first half and Hull's inability to recover from the early onslaught.

Ultimately, Toulouse Olympique's early scoreboard pressure proved insurmountable. Hull FC couldn't overcome the first-half deficit, despite their efforts to close the gap. A convincing win for Toulouse, affirming their pre-match favouritism, while Hull FC will be left to ponder their slow start.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 48% | Territory | **52%** |
| 82% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| **1,228** | Run metres | 993 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 29 |
| **9** | Offloads | 8 |
| **90.3%** | Tackle efficiency | 84.5% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| 9 | Errors | **6** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **8.5** | Metres per run | 6.7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 5 |
| 6/7 | Conversions | 5/5 |
| 2/2 | Penalty Goals | 0/0 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | 6 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 74 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 40. The model went 6/17 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 6.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (24/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 5 · Hull FC 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique -6.5 — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — model probability 60.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 8 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Toulouse Olympique get the nod at 60%, and the number doing the heavy lifting is the ratings gap. They sit 134 points clear on ELO, 1462 to 1328. That's the model's headline reason, full stop.

Here's the catch though: most of the other factors point the other way. Hull FC lead on Recent Win Rate and Halves Control, two of the four factors in play. Forward Pack is called even. So the model is backing Toulouse Olympique against the run of factors, which means it's leaning almost entirely on that ELO number to get there.

The positional split backs that up. Hull FC's forwards rate 751 to Toulouse Olympique's 746, next to nothing in it. Their halves rate 832 to 801, a real edge. Toulouse Olympique hit back in the backs, 859 to 852, but the number that jumps off the page is at hooker: 1301 for Toulouse Olympique against 600 for Hull FC. That's not a gap, that's a chasm, and it's likely doing more work in the model's head than any of the four named factors let on.

Form is level on the surface and messy underneath. Both sides have won two of their last five. But look at the shape: Toulouse Olympique have gone LLLWW, three losses then a couple of wins to finish. Hull FC have gone LWLWL, up and down all the way through. Toulouse Olympique are averaging 17.6 points scored and shipping 30, an average margin of minus 12.4. Hull FC are averaging 20.6 scored, 20 conceded, dead level at plus 0.6. On the underlying numbers, Hull FC have been the tidier side: more metres, 1414.4 to 1117.6, more clean breaks, 3.8 to 3.6, fewer errors, 9.6 to 12.8. Toulouse Olympique have actually made more tackles, 314.4 to 311, but that's often a side that's had to do more defending, not less.

No head-to-head record or venue history has been handed over for this one, so there's nothing there worth guessing at. This one's played at Stade Ernest Wallon, Toulouse Olympique's home patch, but that's not listed among the model's factors, so it's not being counted as an edge here.

The predicted margin sits at Toulouse Olympique by 7.6, with the combined score tipped around 40. Given Hull FC's average concede of 20 and Toulouse Olympique's average score of 17.6, that margin looks plausible rather than generous. This isn't shaping as a blowout on the model's numbers, more a job Toulouse Olympique are favoured to get done, not smash open.

On price, the market has Toulouse Olympique at $1.46 for the head-to-head, and the model reckons that's actually short: an edge of minus 8.1%, meaning the model isn't as keen on Toulouse Olympique at that number as the market is. The line markets sit closer to home: Toulouse Olympique on the -6.5 handicap at $1.92 and the margin at $3.30 both come back with no edge either way, the model's more or less in step with the market there. The total sits at Under 50.5 at $1.85, also flat, no edge, which lines up neatly with a predicted total of 40.

So it nets out like this. The model's read is Toulouse Olympique, largely on the strength of that ELO gap and a stand-out hooker rating, not because the form line or the halves battle back them

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.6pts |
| 1117.6m | Run Metres | 1414.4m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 314.4 | Tackles | 311.0 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W | 17.6 |
| Hull FC | R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 L | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Hull FC lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Hull FC | 4 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R26 | Hull FC | 38 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R21 | Toulouse Olympique | 6 – 30 | Hull FC |
| 2022 | R11 | Hull FC | 48 – 12 | Toulouse Olympique |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 13th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.76 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 13th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.88/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.76/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 8th) | 0.84/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.68/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 3 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 95m/g | 70m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 1.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 51 | 34 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 448m/g | 423m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.6/g | 11.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 11 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 228m/g | 231m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 92% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.23) +26%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.76/g (lg 0.46) +65% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Wingers 1.2/g (lg 0.92) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 12 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| 3 | Luke Polselli | CE | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 14 in 18g | 10/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·2·3·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 18 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 19 | Henry O'Kane | INT | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 23' |
| 20 | Louis Grossemy | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 21 | Mathieu Pons | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 50' 78' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' 69' |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Ligi Sao | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 18 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 19 | Lloyd Kemp | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 20 | Lennon Clark | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 21 | Benjamin Johnson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1462 · Hull FC 1328 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 41.4% | Hull FC |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 33.5% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.5% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 3.2% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-07 21:06 UTC (latest tip update)