# Leigh Leopards v St Helens — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 48 – 10 St Helens

_Leigh Leopards put St Helens to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 73% / St Helens 27% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sat, 05 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), David Armstrong (11' Tipped ⚡), Umyla Hanley (28' Tipped ⚡), Adam Cook (38' Tipped ⚡), Edwin Ipape (57'), Umyla Hanley (61' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Alick-Wiencke (70' Tipped ⚡), Robbie Mulhern (79') · St Helens: Jacob Douglas (16'), Tristan Sailor (25' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 73% | Won |
| St Helens | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.9 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs St Helens Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 8 Sept 2026, 07:07 am_

Leigh Leopards 48–10 St Helens in Super League Round 26 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, Leigh Leopards led St Helens 24-10. The second half saw Leigh extend their lead, finishing with a decisive 48-10 victory at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. What seemed like a potentially close match at the break turned into a dominant display by the Leopards.

The game started with Leigh taking control early. Josh Charnley and David Armstrong scored tries, putting Leigh ahead. St Helens responded with tries from Jacob Douglas and Tristan Sailor, narrowing the gap. However, Umyla Hanley's try before half-time gave Leigh a comfortable cushion.

Leigh's control was evident in their stats: 55% possession and 61% territory. They completed 82% of their sets and ran for 1,334 metres, compared to St Helens' 941 metres. Leigh's attack was relentless, with 11 line breaks and 51 tackle busts, leaving St Helens struggling to keep up.

Adam Cook played a crucial role, contributing with tries and conversions. He converted seven of Leigh's tries, showcasing his precision. The try-scoring was a team effort, with Umyla Hanley scoring twice and additional tries from Edwin Ipape, Jacob Alick-Wiencke, and Robbie Mulhern.

St Helens struggled with discipline, conceding eight penalties compared to Leigh's two. They made fewer errors, only seven, but failed to capitalise on them. Their defence was shaky, missing 53 tackles, which allowed Leigh to exploit gaps.

Alphr's model predicted a Leigh win with a 73% probability. While it correctly picked the winner, the expected 12.9-point margin was far exceeded. St Helens couldn't mount the defensive effort needed, and the predicted total of 43 points was surpassed with a final tally of 58.

St Helens' recent form had been inconsistent, with only two wins from their last five matches. Despite having a stronger forward pack on paper, they couldn't translate it into on-field success. Leigh's backline, on the other hand, proved superior, running rampant throughout the match.

By the end, Leigh Leopards had turned their first-half lead into a commanding victory. St Helens left with questions about their defence, while Leigh celebrated a win that highlighted their growing form.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **61%** | Territory | 39% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 79% |
| **1,334** | Run metres | 941 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **51** | Tackle busts | 32 |
| **14** | Offloads | 9 |
| **88.5%** | Tackle efficiency | 87.2% |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 53 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **7.2** | Metres per run | 5.7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 2 |
| 8/8 | Conversions | 1/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.9 but the actual margin was 38 points. Leigh Leopards led 24–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 8/17 on this match. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (39/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · St Helens 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +14.5 — model probability 73.5% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — model probability 73.5% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 13 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model's landed on Leigh Leopards here, 73% to St Helens's 27%. The biggest reason is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit at 1649, St Helens down at 1494, a 155-point split that's hard to ignore.

Worth saying plainly though: the positional picture isn't one-way traffic. St Helens have the stronger forward pack, 804 to 726, and a big edge in the halves, 1100 to 756. That's a real gap in the engine room and the playmaking spine. What's pulling the model back to Leigh Leopards is the backline, 1140 to 903, plus the factors it's weighting: ELO Difference, Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Rest Days. So the model's backing outside class and the ladder-adjusted rating to outweigh a better pack and sharper halves. That's the bet it's making, and it's worth knowing that's the bet.

Form supports the lean, if not by much. Leigh Leopards have won 3 of their last 5, St Helens 2. Leigh Leopards are averaging 26 points scored and conceding just 18, for a margin of plus-8. St Helens are actually scoring more, 27.6 a game, but leaking 25.6 back the other way, for a margin of only plus-2. Leigh Leopards are running for more metres, 1336.8 to 1220.2, and getting more clean breaks, 5.8 to 4.8, though St Helens are putting in more tackles, 299.2 to 284.2. The recent sequences tell a similar story: Leigh Leopards went LWWWL across their last five, St Helens LLWWL. Neither side's flying, but Leigh Leopards are the tidier of the two defensively, and that's the number that tends to matter.

On the shape of it, the model has Leigh Leopards winning by 12.9, with the two sides combining for around 43 points. That total lines up close to the market's 42.5, so no great surprise there. The margin is the story: comfortable, not a blowout, and built more on defence than fireworks.

The market's already squarely with Leigh Leopards, pricing them at $1.15 for the head-to-head. The model actually sees that as overpriced relative to its own numbers, an edge of minus 13.5%, meaning the model's true probability isn't quite as short as that price suggests. On the alternate markets, St Helens at the 14.5-point line is $1.79 with no edge either way, the $3.30 on Leigh Leopards's margin shows no edge, and the over on 42.5 at $1.85 is flat as well. So the clearest signal here isn't really the price, it's the model's own head-

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 1336.8m | Run Metres | 1220.2m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 284.2 | Tackles | 299.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 26.0 |
| St Helens | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | St Helens | 20 – 18 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2025 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R19 | St Helens | 4 – 16 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 12 | St Helens |
| 2024 | R19 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 4 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (0.96 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 10th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 10th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.04/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.48/g (def 10th) | 1.48/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.96/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.84/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 10 | 11 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 160m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 89.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 28 | 40 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 398m/g | 378m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 11.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 8 | 19 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 301m/g | 268m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.27) -15% · Five-Eighths 0.16/g (lg 0.19) -16%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.13) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 6/18g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Andrew Badrock | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 61' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 23 in 18g | 18/10g (2·2·1·3·0·3·4·0·2·1) | 6/15g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 11 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| 13 | Louis Brogan | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Nathan Wilde | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 18 | Gareth O'Brien | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 19 | Isaac Liu | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 20 | Keanan Brand | INT | 0 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 21 | Owen Trout | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

**St Helens** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Jack Campbell | WG | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 9 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 8 | Jacob Host | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Deon Cross | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Cole Marsh | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | William Keeley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 18 | Alfie Tate | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 19 | Luke Walsh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 20 | Oscar Knox | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 21 | Tyler Mcgann | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1649 · St Helens 1494 · ELO difference: 155 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 44.3% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 27.2% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 14.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Halves Control | 5.1% | St Helens |
| 5 | Rest Days | 3.5% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.9% | St Helens |
| 7 | Forward Pack | 2.6% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-07 21:07 UTC (latest tip update)