# Leigh Leopards v St Helens — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 48 – 10 St Helens

_Leigh Leopards put St Helens to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 73% / St Helens 27% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sat, 05 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), David Armstrong (11' Tipped ⚡), Umyla Hanley (28' Tipped ⚡), Adam Cook (38' Tipped ⚡), Edwin Ipape (57'), Umyla Hanley (61' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Alick-Wiencke (70' Tipped ⚡), Robbie Mulhern (79') · St Helens: Jacob Douglas (16'), Tristan Sailor (25' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 73% | Won |
| St Helens | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.9 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 12:26 am_

Leigh Leopards 48–10 St Helens in Super League Round 26 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one right in direction, wrong in degree. It gave Leigh Leopards a 73% chance and picked them by 12.9 points on a combined total of 43. Leigh Leopards won by 38, scoring 48 points on their own. The win call landed. The margin model didn't get within cooee of it.

Early on, the script looked about right. Josh Charnley opened the scoring in the 9th minute, David Armstrong followed two minutes later, and by the 13th minute it was 12-0. That's roughly the gap the model had forecast, just arriving early.

St Helens then did what their halves rating suggested they might. With Leigh Leopards rated 756 to St Helens' 1100 in that department, Jacob Douglas and Tristan Sailor hit back either side of the 20-minute mark to get the visitors within two, 12-10, by the 26th minute. For about ten minutes, this looked like the tight arm-wrestle the model had priced.

It didn't stay that way. Umyla Hanley crossed in the 28th minute and Adam Cook added his own try in the 38th, and Leigh Leopards went to the break 24-10 up. That's where the backline gap, 1140 to 903 in Leigh Leopards' favour, started doing the damage the halves numbers couldn't undo.

The longer the game went, the more one-sided the collision numbers got. Leigh Leopards finished with 1,413 run metres to 937, broke the line 11 times to St Helens' 3, and busted 52 tackles to 27. St Helens were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing up just 7 errors to Leigh Leopards' 9, but they gave away 8 penalties to Leigh Leopards' 2, and territory like that against a side finding go-forward everywhere is a bad trade.

St Helens never scored again after Sailor's conversion made it 12-10. Leigh Leopards crossed four more times unanswered: Edwin Ipape in the 57th minute, Hanley's second in the 61st, Jacob Alick-Wiencke in the 70th, and Robbie Mulhern right at the death in the 79th. Adam Cook slotted every one of his conversions, eight from eight on the night, and finished with a try of his own.

On paper St Helens held the only edge that mattered up front, 804 to 726 in forward strength, and their last-five form had them just two points worse off per game than Leigh Leopards on average. None of it showed up on the scoresheet here. Leigh Leopards' backs and their tackle-bust count did the damage, and the penalty count, 8 to 2, made sure St Helens never got the field position to make their forward edge count.

The model called the winner and the over on 42.5 correctly. The margin was never going to be close once Leigh Leopards started scoring at that rate in the second half, and 38 points is a big miss to wear. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,413** | Run metres | 937 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **52** | Tackle busts | 27 |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 2 |
| 8/8 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.9 but the actual margin was 38 points. Leigh Leopards led 24–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 8/17 on this match. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (39/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 2 · St Helens 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +14.5 — model probability 73.5% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — model probability 73.5% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 13 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 73% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 155 ELO points clear, 1649 to 1494. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 12.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 1336.8m | Run Metres | 1220.2m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 284.2 | Tackles | 299.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R21 L · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 26.0 |
| St Helens | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | St Helens | 20 – 18 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 59% ✗ |
| 2025 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R19 | St Helens | 4 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R19 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.16 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 12th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.84 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.52/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 7th) | 1.84/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.16/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 129m/g | 198m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 66 · 35 | 53 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 507m/g | 474m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 10 | 21 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 396m/g | 333m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · Wingers 0.87/g (lg 0.99) -12% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.31) -16%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.26) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 14 in 25g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2·0) | 6/18g | 8/11g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Keanan Brand | CE | 0 in 6g | 5/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/5g | 4/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 61' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 24 in 22g | 11/10g (0·3·4·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/15g | 9/10g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 7 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 7/11g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 5 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/8g | 23% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 1/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 11 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Andrew Badrock | INT | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 57' |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 10 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Welsby | CE | 12 in 17g | 10/10g (2·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Harry Robertson | 5/8 | 7 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Humphreys | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jacob Host | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | William Keeley | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Cole Marsh | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Oscar Knox | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1649 · St Helens 1494 · ELO difference: 155 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 44.3% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 27.2% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 14.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Halves Control | 5.1% | St Helens |
| 5 | Rest Days | 3.5% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.9% | St Helens |
| 7 | Forward Pack | 2.6% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 13:26 UTC (latest tip update)