# Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 8 – 40 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors run riot over Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 8 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 41% / Wigan Warriors 59% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sun, 06 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Ash Handley (15') · Wigan Warriors: Adam Keighran (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Adam Keighran (11' 1st Tipped 🎯), Austin Daniel (28'), Liam Marshall (43'), Bevan French (65' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (70' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (76' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 59% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Sept 2026, 08:52 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:30 am_

Leeds Rhinos 8–40 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 26 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight all... no, 8-16 at the break, and that gap told only half the story. Wigan Warriors then piled on 24 unanswered second-half points to close it out 40-8 at AMT Headingley Stadium, turning a workable deficit into a rout.

The shape of the first half was set early. Adam Keighran crossed twice inside the opening eleven minutes to put Wigan out 0-10, and although Ash Handley hit back for Leeds Rhinos at the 15th minute, converted by Jake Connor, Wigan kept finding another response. Austin Daniel's try in the 28th minute stretched it to 6-16, and a Connor penalty goal on the stroke of half-time was as close as the home side would get.

Whatever Leeds Rhinos needed to find after the break, they didn't find it. Liam Marshall scored just three minutes into the second half to make it 8-20, and while the game then went quiet for a stretch, Wigan Warriors detonated from the 65th minute on. Bevan French, Jai Field and a third Keighran try in the space of twelve minutes turned a comfortable lead into a demolition, with Keighran finishing the afternoon with three tries and six goals from six.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the scoreboard suggests. Wigan Warriors ran for 1,385 metres to 1,121, but the real gap was in how they used the ball: ten line breaks to one, and 38 tackle busts to 24. Leeds Rhinos simply couldn't keep them out once space opened up, and once it opened up once, it kept opening up.

Discipline wasn't the story here, which is worth noting given Leeds Rhinos actually conceded fewer penalties, 5 to 7. Errors were close too, 8 to 6 in Wigan's favour. This wasn't won on field position or ill-discipline. It was won in the halves, and the pre-match numbers said as much: Wigan's halves rating of 1348 dwarfed Leeds Rhinos' 1092, even though Leeds held the edge in forwards, backs and at hooker. When the gap is that lopsided in the pivot positions, it tends to show up exactly where it did, in busted tackles and line breaks.

Form lines pointed this way too. Wigan Warriors arrived on a five-game winning streak, Leeds Rhinos four from five, and Wigan's away form carried real weight given their away combined average margin of 26 points across their last five. That form held up, and then some.

Alphr's model backed Wigan Warriors pre-match at 59% and had them favoured by half a point, on a combined total of 37. The winner call landed. The margin call didn't, not by 32 points' worth. The over on 34.5 was right, and the head-to-head price of 1.5 was covered comfortably. Overall the model finished 7 from 17 on this one, a reminder that picking the right team is only half the job when a game like this can blow out from an eight-point half-time margin to a 32-point rout inside 40 minutes.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,121 | Run metres | **1,385** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| 8 | Errors | **6** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 6/7 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 8 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 32 points. Wigan Warriors led 8–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 7/17 on this match. Wigan Warriors covered the 1.5-point line. The over 34.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Wigan Warriors 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 58.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors +1.5 — model probability 58.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 58.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 34.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 1 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 59%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 23 ELO points clear, 1818 to 1795. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leeds Rhinos.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Rest Days. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 37.2pts | Avg Score | 34.8pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 8.8pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Margin | 26.0pts |
| 1457.0m | Run Metres | 1435.2m |
| 6.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 273.8 | Tackles | 320.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W | 37.2 |
| Wigan Warriors | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W | 34.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 6 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Leeds Rhinos | 30 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.24 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.84 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Hodkinson, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.56/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 1.6/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 3.24/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 2.24/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.84/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 7 | 19 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 105m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 83% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 58 · 39 | 93 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 342m/g | 524m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 7 | 13 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 346m/g | 410m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.15) -7% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.31) -26%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Wingers 0.75/g (lg 0.99) -24% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.2) -25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Ryan Hall | WG | 10 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 6/21g | 11/24g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 15' |
| 5 | Harry Newman | WG | 10 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 16/33g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 24g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 8/25g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 28 in 24g | 12/10g (0·1·3·2·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/9g | 17/34g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/16g | 4/30g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/37g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/22g | 5/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Presley Cassell | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Zak Lloyd | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/14g | 4/30g | 18% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 16 in 20g | 8/10g (3·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/9g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 2 | Austin Daniel | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 12 in 22g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/6g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 5% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 11' 76' |
| 4 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 26 in 24g | 13/10g (1·1·1·3·2·1·2·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·3) | 6/13g | 2/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 7/7g | 1/1g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Kian Mcdermott | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Walters | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wigan Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1818 vs 1795), but the market favours Leeds Rhinos (@1.89). The model sides with ELO, Wigan Warriors predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1795 · Wigan Warriors 1818 · ELO difference: 23 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 49.1% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 14.7% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 12.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Rest Days | 5.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 4.4% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.7% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | Forward Pack | 2.2% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Wigan Warriors favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:30 UTC (latest tip update)