# Hull KR v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 36 – 6 Huddersfield Giants

_Hull KR outfox Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 62% / Huddersfield Giants 38% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 05 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Elliot Minchella (9' 1st), Arthur Mourgue (12'), Jack Broadbent (16' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (62'), Arthur Mourgue (66'), Tom Davies (69' Tipped ⚡) · Huddersfield Giants: Tanguy Zenon (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 62% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 12:26 am_

Hull KR 36–6 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 26 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR won the arm wrestle before the ball even mattered. Huddersfield Giants racked up 26 tackle busts to Hull KR's 24, all bustle and ambition, players breaking tackles and going nowhere useful. Hull KR played the patient game: hold the ball, don't gift it back, let the errors do the damage. Nine errors to Huddersfield's 12 tells that story on its own, and it's why the final score read 36-6.

That patience showed up everywhere it counted. Hull KR ran for 1,479 metres to Huddersfield's 1,029, turned that platform into seven line breaks against three, and conceded just 7 penalties to Huddersfield's 9. Huddersfield had the busier stats on paper but nothing to show for it, the kind of afternoon where effort and outcome part ways.

The scoreboard made the contrast plain early. Elliot Minchella opened it in the 9th minute, Arthur Mourgue struck in the 12th, Jack Broadbent added a third in the 16th, and by the 18th minute it was 18-0. Huddersfield finally got on the board through Tanguy Zenon right on the stroke of half-time, Tuimoala Lolohea's conversion making it 18-6 at the break. A response, but a late one, and Hull KR had already banked four converted tries before Huddersfield laid a glove on the ledger.

The second half was Hull KR administering rather than building. Rhyse Martin's penalty goal in the 42nd stretched it to 20-6, then Jez Litten crashed over in the 62nd, Mourgue grabbed his second in the 66th, and Tom Davies finished it off in the 69th. Four tries and 18 unanswered points in that final stretch, Huddersfield never landing another score after Zenon's.

Mourgue's afternoon deserves its own mention: two tries, and his kicking and Martin's between them made sure every try bar one got the extras. Hull KR's hooker rating of 1281 against Huddersfield's 837 going in wasn't just a number on a sheet, Litten's try in the 62nd was the sort of thing that rating predicts. The halves edge, 795 to 600, showed up in how comfortably Hull KR controlled the ball in the areas that mattered.

Huddersfield's form coming in had them the better side on paper in recent weeks, four wins from five against Hull KR's two, and a backs rating of 855 to 690 that suggested their outside men would cause trouble. They didn't get the ball enough in the right areas to prove it. One try from Zenon was the extent of the return on a backline that should have offered more.

Alphr's model had Hull KR favourites at 62 percent and pegged the margin at 7.6, with a combined total of 45. The winner was right, the total landed within three points of the actual 42, but the margin call was miles off. Thirty points separated these two sides in the end, not eight. The model went 4 from 17 on the finer detail of this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,479** | Run metres | 1,029 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **26** |
| **10** | Offloads | 9 |
| **9** | Errors | 12 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 9 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. Hull KR led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Hull KR 7 · Huddersfield Giants 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants +12.5 — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 8 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 62%, but Huddersfield Giants stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 174 ELO points clear, 1559 to 1385. Form leans Huddersfield Giants' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull KR.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Rest Days. The margin model has Hull KR by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 9.2pts |
| 1228.6m | Run Metres | 1333.4m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 351.0 | Tackles | 307.2 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R22 W · R23 W · R2 L · R24 L · R25 L | 22.4 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 L · R25 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Huddersfield Giants | 6 – 32 | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants 54% ✗ |
| 2025 | R11 | Hull KR | 34 – 0 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 50 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 24 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Hull KR | 32 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.8 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 11th there (2.6 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.96 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.12/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.72/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.68/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.6/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.6/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.84/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 6th) | 0.96/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 8 | 8 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 185m/g | 124m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 88.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 41 | 45 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 616m/g | 495m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 16 | 13 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 302m/g | 323m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.2) +65% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Centres 0.76/g (lg 0.51) +49%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.28/g (lg 0.31) -10% · Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.51) -29% · Wingers 0.67/g (lg 0.99) -32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 8 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 16/32g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 12 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 12/16g | 15/28g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 13/37g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 7/19g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 18 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 10/15g | 31/31g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Arthur Mourgue | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 2/16g | 32% | — | 🏉 12' 66' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 8 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 2/8g | 10/35g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/39g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 13/61g | 28% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/17g | 4/53g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 7/38g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 6/60g | 12% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/49g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 5/19g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 10% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 3/15g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Lewis Jagger | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Samuel Halsall | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 11 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Taane Milne | WG | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Adam Clune | 5/8 | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | George King | PR | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/35g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Tristan Powell | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Cozza | 2R | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Rushton | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Rush | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanguy Zenon | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 16 | Fenton Rogers | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Billington | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1559 · Huddersfield Giants 1385 · ELO difference: 174 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 49.2% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Halves Control | 13.9% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 13.5% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 7.7% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 5 | Rest Days | 4.3% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 2.4% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 13:26 UTC (latest tip update)