# Hull KR v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 36 – 6 Huddersfield Giants

_Hull KR outfox Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 62% / Huddersfield Giants 38% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 05 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Elliot Minchella (9' 1st), Arthur Mourgue (12'), Jack Broadbent (16' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (62'), Arthur Mourgue (66'), Tom Davies (69' Tipped ⚡) · Huddersfield Giants: Tanguy Zenon (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 62% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 8 Sept 2026, 12:10 am_

Hull KR 36–6 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 26 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Run metres were the key: Hull KR dominated Huddersfield Giants 36–6 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Hull KR racked up 1,463 metres, setting the pace early and maintaining control throughout. Their forward pack, rated at 818 against Huddersfield’s 746, was a force, consistently gaining ground.

Elliot Minchella opened the scoring with a try in the 9th minute. Hull KR quickly built an 18-0 lead with additional tries from Arthur Mourgue and Jack Broadbent. Huddersfield's Tanguy Zenon responded late in the first half, but the 18–6 halftime score was already a significant lead. In the second half, Hull KR added 18 more points. Mourgue, Jez Litten, and Tom Davies each scored tries, widening the margin to 30 points.

Possession was crucial. Hull KR controlled the ball 58% of the time, compared to Huddersfield's 42%. Despite having less territory, Hull KR were efficient, completing 82% of their sets. Huddersfield struggled, with a 78% completion rate and 11 errors, which left them constantly on the back foot. Their recent strong form, with 4 wins out of 5, was halted here.

Line breaks highlighted the disparity. Hull KR broke through Huddersfield's defence 7 times, while the Giants managed only 3. With their halves rated at 795 against Huddersfield's 600, Hull KR had a clear advantage in attack. Their 27 tackle busts to Huddersfield’s 24 further demonstrated their attacking prowess.

Discipline was another issue for the Giants. They conceded 9 penalties to Hull KR's 7, adding to their difficulties. Tuimoala Lolohea’s conversion just before halftime was their only notable contribution. By then, Hull KR had already secured the win.

Alphr's model correctly predicted Hull KR to win, with a 62% probability. However, it underestimated the margin, predicting a 7.6-point difference instead of the actual 30-point gap. The total score prediction was close, with a forecast of 45 points compared to the actual 42.

This victory is a confidence boost for Hull KR as they aim to build momentum. With a strong forward pack and clinical finishing, they are well-positioned for future challenges. Huddersfield, on the other hand, need to regroup and focus on reducing errors and capitalising on opportunities to avoid similar outcomes in upcoming matches.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| 49% | Territory | **51%** |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,463** | Run metres | 1,042 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **27** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| **10** | Offloads | 9 |
| 92.2% | Tackle efficiency | **93.2%** |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 6.8 | Metres per run | **7.1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/6 | Conversions | 1/1 |
| 1/1 | Penalty Goals | 0/0 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 9 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.6 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. Hull KR led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Hull KR 7 · Huddersfield Giants 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants +12.5 — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 8 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR at 62%, and the number that's doing the heavy lifting is the ratings gap. Hull KR sit at 1559 on the model's ratings, Huddersfield Giants down at 1385. That's 174 points clear, which is not a line-ball gap in anyone's language.

Where Hull KR back that up is up front and through the middle. Forward Pack rates 818 to 746 their way, Halves Control is 795 to 600, and the hooker number is a genuine mismatch: 1281 to 837. Huddersfield do hold one spot on the park though, the backline, rated 855 to Hull KR's 690. That's the one shop window where the Giants look the better side.

Form is the awkward bit for anyone backing the home side blind. Huddersfield have won 4 of their last 5, running WWWLW. Hull KR have won 2, and it's been WWLLL, three losses on the bounce to close out that stretch. Averages tell the same story: Huddersfield are scoring 28.8 a game and conceding 19.6, a positive margin of 9.2. Hull KR are at 22.4 scored, 24.4 conceded, sitting on minus 2. The Giants have also been cleaner, 4.6 clean breaks to 3.4, fewer errors, more metres. Hull KR's one clear form number in their favour is workrate, 351 tackles to 307.2.

So the model's leaning on Hull KR against the recent form line, not with it. Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage are both ticked for Huddersfield Giants, worth noting given the game's at Sewell Group Craven Park. What's pulling the read back to Hull KR is ELO Difference, Halves Control, Rest Days and Forward Pack, four factors to two, and the model's clearly weighting the size of that ratings gap and the halves and hooker mismatch over the shape of recent results.

No captains or milestones in the notes for this one, so nothing to add there. Rest Days is ticked in Hull KR's favour, which the model's folded into its read without needing to spell out the detail.

Put it together and the model has Hull KR winning by 7.6, with the total sitting around 45. Not a blowout, not a shootout either, just a home side expected to do enough without being asked to run away with it.

On the market, Hull KR head to head is priced at $1.19, and the model's edge there is minus 21.6%, so it reckons that price is too short for the shape of this game, not the sort of number worth chasing. The margin band on Huddersfield Giants, 12.5 points, sits at $1.79 with no edge either way. Hull KR by margin is $3.30, again no edge. Total under 48.5 is $1.79, flat as well. Plenty of markets here, not much daylight in any of them once the model's had its say.

For Huddersfield to get there, they probably need the form line to keep meaning something, that backline edge to actually show up on the scoreboard, and Hull KR's halves and hooker advantage to go quiet for eighty min

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 9.2pts |
| 1228.6m | Run Metres | 1333.4m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 351.0 | Tackles | 307.2 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R22 W · R23 W · R2 L · R24 L · R25 L | 22.4 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 L · R25 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Huddersfield Giants | 6 – 32 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R11 | Hull KR | 34 – 0 | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2025 | R6 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 50 | Hull KR |
| 2024 | — | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 24 | Hull KR |
| 2024 | R14 | Hull KR | 32 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.08 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 13th there (2.16 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.8 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.96/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.32/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.36/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.08/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.16/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.68/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 6th) | 0.8/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 6 | 6 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 24 | 34 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 457m/g | 403m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 80.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 12 | 7 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 236m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.18) +83% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.46) +52% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.27) -11% · Centres 0.29/g (lg 0.46) -37% · Wingers 0.57/g (lg 0.91) -37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 12' 66' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/16g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 14 in 14g | 11/10g (3·2·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 10/15g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Noah Booth | 5/8 | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Bill Leyland | INT | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Zachary Fishwick | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 18 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 6 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 19 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 20 | Louix Gorman | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 21 | Frankie Dearlove | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Taane Milne | WG | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Lewis Jagger | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Halsall | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Clune | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | George King | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Tanguy Zenon | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 12 | Jack Billington | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Rushton | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Rush | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Tristan Powell | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Greenwood | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 18 | Oli Leyland | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 19 | Logan Blacker | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 20 | Matthew Hanley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 21 | Stanley Hobson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1559 · Huddersfield Giants 1385 · ELO difference: 174 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 49.2% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Halves Control | 13.9% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 13.5% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 7.7% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 5 | Rest Days | 4.3% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 2.4% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-07 14:10 UTC (latest tip update)