# Catalans Dragons v York Knights — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 16 – 28 York Knights

_York Knights surge back to lay siege to Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 62% / York Knights 38% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 06 Sept, 04:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Leo Darrelatour (3' 1st), Leo Darrelatour (16' 1st), Leo Darrelatour (39' 1st) · York Knights: Oliver Field (19'), David Nofoaluma (24'), Liam Harris (51'), Scott Galeano (63' Tipped ⚡), Paul Vaughan (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 62% | Lost |
| York Knights | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Sept 2026, 08:52 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 12:27 am_

Catalans Dragons 16–28 York Knights in Super League Round 26 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons led for most of the night and still lost by 12. That's the story of this one at Stade Gilbert Brutus, where York Knights kept absorbing the scoreboard pressure before flipping it late, running out 28-16 winners.

The early running was all Catalans. Leo Darrelatour opened the scoring inside three minutes and added a second in the 16th. The conversion that followed put Catalans out to 10-0, the kind of start the model had in mind when it tipped them by 10.5 points pre-match, backed by the bigger forward pack (826 to 733) and a clear edge in the backs (931 to 761).

York Knights didn't panic. Oliver Field got them on the board in the 19th, and five minutes later David Nofoaluma levelled it at 10-10. Darrelatour's third try, right on the stroke of half-time, put Catalans back in front at 16-12, and that's how the sides went to the sheds. A four-point break, built entirely on one man's hat-trick.

It didn't survive the second half. Liam Harris crossed in the 51st to tie it at 16-16, and Cody Hunter's conversion two minutes later edged York in front for the first time. From there the margin only grew. Scott Galeano stretched it to eight in the 63rd, the moment the contest turned safe for York, and Paul Vaughan put it beyond doubt in the 78th. Hunter finished four from four with the boot to close it out 28-16.

The stat sheet explains the reversal better than the scoreboard alone. York racked up 57 tackle busts to Catalans' 33, a gulf that points to a forward pack that kept finding go-forward when it mattered, with props Vaughan and Galeano both among the try scorers late. York also held the ball better, coughing it up nine times to Catalans' 11, and that discipline let them control the closing stages when the game was there to be won.

Catalans still won a few of the arm-wrestles. They out-gained York on run metres, 1,518 to 1,393, and doubled them on line breaks, eight to five.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,518** | Run metres | 1,393 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 33 | Tackle busts | **57** |
| 5 | Offloads | **6** |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 11 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

York Knights defied the model's 62% prediction for Catalans Dragons, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. York Knights trailed 16–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–28. The model went 3/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 13.5-point line. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 7 · York Knights 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +13.5 — model probability 62.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 11 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 62%, but York Knights stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 24 ELO points clear, 1333 to 1308.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 4 of 5 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Rest Days. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 10.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.6pts |
| -6.6pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 1234.8m | Run Metres | 986.6m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 307.0 | Tackles | 298.6 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 7.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 W | 20.4 |
| York Knights | R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Catalans Dragons lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | York Knights | 22 – 36 | Catalans Dragons | York Knights 72% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.76 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 13th there (2.72 conceded/game). Key man: Staines, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.36 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 11th there (2.64 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.24/g (def 9th) | 0.6/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.76/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.64/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.72/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) | 0.72/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 23 | 12 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 112m/g | 90m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 57 | 31 · 71 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 517m/g | 412m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.5/g | 10.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 87.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 23 | 11 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 248m/g | 297m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.68/g (lg 0.26) +162% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.11) +82% · Halfbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.2) +80%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 11 in 24g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/11g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 9 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/10g | 42% | — | 🏉 3' 16' 39' |
| 3 | Clement Martin | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 13/22g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 10 in 25g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 4/11g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 3 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Edenn Rogers-Smith | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| 13 | Alrix Costa | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/60g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/28g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Giovanni Descalzi | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Adrian Delarose | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (0·3·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 8/11g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 10 in 22g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Liam Harris | HB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 8 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 6 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/18g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jordan Thompson | PR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 19' |
| 13 | Ata Hingano | LK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 6 in 25g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/8g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Martin | INT | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Foster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1333 · York Knights 1308 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 32.2% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 7.8% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Venue Advantage | 5.1% | York Knights |
| 4 | Rest Days | 4.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 3.9% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 13:27 UTC (latest tip update)