# Bradford Bulls v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 32 – 22 Castleford Tigers

_Bradford Bulls see off Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 26 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 49% / Castleford Tigers 51% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Fri, 04 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Riley Dean (4' 1st), Connor Wynne (12' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Aekins (16' Tipped ⚡), Dan Russell (33'), Waqa Blake (39' Tipped ⚡), Ebon Scurr (51') · Castleford Tigers: Louis Senior (20'), Krystian Mapapalangi (45' Tipped ⚡), Alex Mellor (65'), Krystian Mapapalangi (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 51% | Lost |
| Bradford Bulls | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Castleford Tigers Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 26, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 8 Sept 2026, 12:10 am_

Bradford Bulls 32–22 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 26 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls' adventurous playstyle led them to a 32–22 victory over Castleford Tigers at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Despite Castleford's tighter ball control, with 54% possession and a completion rate of 83%, Bradford's focus on raw metres and line breaks made the difference. They surged to a 26–4 lead at half-time and held on to secure the win.

Bradford's aggressive approach was evident from the start. Riley Dean opened the scoring in the fourth minute, setting the tone for the Bulls. By the 20-minute mark, they were up 18–0 with tries from Connor Wynne and Caleb Aekins. Castleford responded through Louis Senior, narrowing it to 18–4, but a try from Dan Russell and another from Waqa Blake before the break extended Bradford's lead. At half-time, it was 26–4, leaving Castleford with a steep hill to climb.

Castleford's strategy focused on patience and discipline. They completed their sets more cleanly, with only eight errors compared to Bradford's 12. However, this methodical approach lacked the punch needed to overturn the deficit. Their 52% territorial advantage and stronger set completion rates should have provided a platform, but Bradford's superior metres per run, averaging 7.7 to Castleford's 5.7, meant every error was costly for the Tigers.

In the second half, Castleford showed signs of life. Krystian Mapapalangi scored early, reducing the gap to 26–10. Ebon Scurr responded for Bradford, pushing the score to 32–10. Castleford rallied with late tries from Alex Mellor and Mapapalangi, but it was more about damage control than a comeback. The final score of 32–22 reflected a game where Castleford never truly threatened to overturn the deficit.

Individually, Bradford's attack was more incisive. They achieved six line breaks to Castleford's four and registered 30 tackle busts throughout the game. These stats highlight a team willing to take risks, which Castleford struggled to contain despite their superior possession stats.

The Tigers' forward pack, rated at 862, couldn't match Bradford's strength at 934. Even with a backs' advantage on paper, with Castleford at 947 to Bradford's 690, the Bulls' backline, supported by their hooker rated at 1525 against 1221, found more space and opportunities to exploit.

Pre-match predictions had Castleford edging this by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 33. The actual outcome defied these expectations, ending with a 10-point victory for the Bulls and a combined score of 54. The model's read was off, capturing only four out of 17 key moments.

In the end, Bradford broke a five-game losing streak, while Castleford was left to reflect on how ambition sometimes trumps patience. The clash of approaches ended with the bold taking the spoils at Odsal.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 48% | Territory | **52%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| **1,236** | Run metres | 1,172 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| **93.4%** | Tackle efficiency | 92.4% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| 12 | Errors | **8** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **7.7** | Metres per run | 5.7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/6 | Conversions | 3/4 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 12 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Bradford Bulls defied the model's 51% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 54 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 33. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 7 · Castleford Tigers 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +1.5 — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Castleford Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 33

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers, 51%. That's the call, and it's about as close as the model ever gets to shrugging. Bradford Bulls sit at 49%, so we're talking a coin that's been very lightly weighted, not a genuine lean.

The ELO numbers back that up: Bradford Bulls 1277, Castleford Tigers 1278. A gap of one point, which is nothing, and the model rates that factor dead even. So the 51% isn't coming from the ladder ratings, it's coming from everything sitting underneath them: Recent Win Rate, Halves Control, Backline Quality, Rest Days and Venue Advantage all tick Castleford's way. Bradford's one card is the Forward Pack, and it's not a small one, 934 to 862. But Castleford's backs rate at 947 against 690, and their halves are up at 874 to 800. Bradford do hold a big edge at hooker, 1525 to 1221, which tells you where their go-forward and go-to-ground work is meant to come from. The rest of the spine belongs to Castleford.

No head-to-head or last-meeting numbers on the table for this one, so we'll leave that alone and stick to what's in front of us.

Form is where the gap actually shows. Bradford Bulls have won 0 of their last 5, Castleford Tigers 1. Both sides are scoring the same on average, 10.8 points a game, so this isn't about firepower. It's about what happens after they've got the ball back off the other mob: Bradford are leaking 41.2 points a game to Castleford's 35.2, and the average margin tells the story plainly, minus 30.4 for Bradford against minus 24.4 for Castleford. Castleford are also running for more metres, 1194 to 1058.6, taking a few more clean breaks, 2.8 to 2.6, making fewer errors, 8.8 to 9, and yet somehow put in fewer tackles, 328.2 to Bradford's 370. Read the run-charts oldest to newest and Bradford Bulls are LLLLL. Castleford Tigers break the run once, LLWLL. Neither side is flying, but one of them at least remembered how.

No milestones or team news supplied for this round, and nothing on captains either, so we'll leave the sheet as it stands. Rest Days is one of the factors the model has going Castleford's way, though no split is given beyond that.

On the shape of it, the model has Castleford Tigers by 0.7 with a combined total of 33. That's not a prediction so much as a modest lean with a low-scoring arm wrestle attached.

The market broadly agrees. Castleford Tigers are $2.03 for the head-to-head, and the model reckons there's a touch of value there, an edge of +1.9%. The line bet has Castleford at $1.85 on the 1.5, the margin price is $3.30, and the total sits at $1.92 for the Under on 45.5, all three with the model showing no extra edge beyond what the price already reflects.

For Bradford Bulls to get home, that Forward Pack edge has to actually show up on the field and drag the ball forward enough to stop the bleeding, because right now everything else, the win rate, the halves, the backs, the venue call, sits with Castleford Tigers. It's a 51-49 read, not a confident one, but the numbers land, just, on the Castleford side of

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 10.8pts | Avg Score | 10.8pts |
| 41.2pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| -30.4pts | Avg Margin | -24.4pts |
| 1058.6m | Run Metres | 1194.0m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 370.0 | Tackles | 328.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L | 10.8 |
| Castleford Tigers | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L · R25 L | 10.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Castleford Tigers lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Castleford Tigers | 40 – 28 | Bradford Bulls |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.84 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (0.8 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.84/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.04/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.04/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.48/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 8th) | 0.4/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 16 | 6 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 118m/g | 73m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 90.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 52 | 28 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 409m/g | 303m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.4% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 17 | 8 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 222m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.2% | 94.7% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.05) +160% · Wingers 1.43/g (lg 0.92) +55% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.05) +220% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.19) +89% · 2nd Rows 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 7 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Leon Ruan | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 8 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 6 | Riley Dean | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.75 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 12 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 17 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 18 | Jamie Gill | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 19 | Alfie Leake | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 20 | Harvey Ward | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 65' |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 79' |
| 5 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Brock Greacen | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 18 | Ben McNamara | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 19 | Alfie Lindsey | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 20 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 21 | Tylor Sharpe | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Castleford Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1278 vs 1277), but the market favours Bradford Bulls (@1.97). The model sides with ELO, Castleford Tigers predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1277 · Castleford Tigers 1278 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Castleford Tigers

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 23.3% | Castleford Tigers |
| 2 | Halves Control | 18.8% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 13.9% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 5 | Rest Days | 5.3% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.7% | Castleford Tigers |
| 7 | ELO Difference | 2.5% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 33 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-07 14:10 UTC (latest tip update)