# Bradford Bulls v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 26 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 32 – 22 Castleford Tigers

_Bradford Bulls see off Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 26 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 49% / Castleford Tigers 51% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Fri, 04 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Riley Dean (4' 1st), Connor Wynne (12' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Aekins (16' Tipped ⚡), Dan Russell (33'), Waqa Blake (39' Tipped ⚡), Ebon Scurr (51') · Castleford Tigers: Louis Senior (20'), Krystian Mapapalangi (45' Tipped ⚡), Alex Mellor (65'), Krystian Mapapalangi (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 51% | Lost |
| Bradford Bulls | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 26 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:51 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 12:26 am_

Bradford Bulls 32–22 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 26 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had this one at a coin flip, tipping Castleford Tigers by 0.7 points and picking a combined total of 33. Bradford Bulls won by 10, and the two sides put up 54. That's the read blown twice over, and it happened because Bradford didn't just win, they buried Castleford in the opening exchanges before the arithmetic caught up with them late.

Final score: Bradford Bulls 32, Castleford Tigers 22, and the scoreboard at the break said it all: 26-4. Riley Dean opened it in the 4th minute, Connor Wynne followed in the 12th, Caleb Aekins in the 16th, and by the 18th minute Bradford led 18-0 with Chris Atkin converting the lot. Dan Russell added a fourth in the 33rd and Waqa Blake got one right before halftime. Castleford's only response in that half was Louis Senior in the 20th. Four tries to one in the first 40 minutes, and the game was more or less decided there.

The model's pre-match numbers explain why it leaned Castleford, and also why it got the margin so wrong. Castleford came in rated higher in the backs, 947 to 690, and in the halves, 874 to 800. Bradford's one big edge was at hooker, 1525 to 1221, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: quick ball out of dummy-half fed a forward pack rated 934 to 862, and Bradford turned that platform into six line breaks to Castleford's four. Line breaks decide tries, not raw yardage, and Bradford made theirs count when it mattered.

Because on the other numbers, Castleford were arguably the better side. They out-ran Bradford 1,294 metres to 1,244, beat more defenders with 28 tackle busts to 24, offloaded more, 9 to 7, and were miles cleaner with the ball, just 8 errors to Bradford's 13. They also won the penalty count, conceding 5 to Bradford's 7. On paper that's the profile of a team that should win. It's also the profile of a team that dug itself too big a hole in the first 20 minutes to fix with better completion rates.

Castleford did find some points once the game opened up. Krystian Mapapalangi crossed twice, in the 45th and again right on full time in the 79th, either side of a Tom Weaver-converted try to Alex Mellor in the 65th. That run pulled the margin from 26-4 back to within 10, and for a stretch it looked like the comeback might get uncomfortable for Bradford. Ebon Scurr's try in the 51st, extending the lead to 32-10, turned out to be the score that made Castleford's late surge academic.

Form lines make Bradford's night more notable. They'd lost five straight coming in, averaging 41.2 points conceded a game, worse than Castleford's 35.2. Both sides were averaging the same 10.8 points scored across their last five, and Castleford had actually won more recently than Bradford, who arrived on a five-game losing run. Bradford flipped that script completely, scoring 32 and holding out a Castleford side that came in with the better recent record.

The model finished 4 from 17 on this one, and Bradford Bulls are the reason why. It had the total roughly right, 54 played against a predicted 33 is a big miss, but it had no answer for how lopsided the opening 20 minutes would be, or for a hooker mismatch big enough to override a clear edge in the backs and metres won everywhere else on the field.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1,244 | Run metres | **1,294** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **28** |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 13 | Errors | **8** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/6 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 13 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Bradford Bulls defied the model's 51% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 54 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 33. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 7 · Castleford Tigers 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +1.5 — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Castleford Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 33

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Bradford Bulls and Castleford Tigers. The model can't split them, landing on Castleford Tigers at 51%. Form leans Castleford Tigers' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Bradford Bulls.

Castleford Tigers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and Backline Quality. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 10.8pts | Avg Score | 10.8pts |
| 41.2pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| -30.4pts | Avg Margin | -24.4pts |
| 1058.6m | Run Metres | 1194.0m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 370.0 | Tackles | 328.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L · R25 L | 10.8 |
| Castleford Tigers | R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L · R25 L | 10.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Castleford Tigers lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Castleford Tigers | 40 – 28 | Bradford Bulls | Bradford Bulls 56% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (2.96 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.96/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.96/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.6/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.4/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 25 | 7 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 132m/g | 90m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 64 | 32 · 70 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 507m/g | 352m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 84.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 25 | 8 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 278m/g | 290m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.2% | 94.7% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · 2nd Rows 0.48/g (lg 0.3) +60% · Wingers 1.54/g (lg 0.99) +56%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.28/g (lg 0.06) +367% · Five-Eighths 0.48/g (lg 0.21) +129% · Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.11) +118%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 25g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Waqa Blake | CE | 9 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 5/9g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 4 | Dan Russell | CE | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 2% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Connor Wynne | WG | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/10g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| 6 | Christopher Atkin | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Riley Dean | HB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 11% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/10g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.75 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 5 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/10g | 2/11g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Ebon Scurr | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 11 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | William Gardiner | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Gill | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Leon Ruan | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 65' |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 79' |
| 5 | Louis Senior | WG | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Brock Greacen | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Hall | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Castleford Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1278 vs 1277), but the market favours Bradford Bulls (@1.97). The model sides with ELO, Castleford Tigers predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1277 · Castleford Tigers 1278 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Castleford Tigers

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 23.3% | Castleford Tigers |
| 2 | Halves Control | 18.8% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 13.9% | Bradford Bulls |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Rest Days | 5.3% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.7% | Castleford Tigers |
| 7 | ELO Difference | 2.5% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 33 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 13:26 UTC (latest tip update)