# Wigan Warriors v Hull KR — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 46 – 0 Hull KR

_Wigan Warriors run riot over Hull KR._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 66% / Hull KR 34% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 28 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Liam Marshall (8' 1st), Jai Field (14' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (17' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (28' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (33' 1st), Adam Keighran (51' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (66' 1st), Jake Wardle (70' Tipped ⚡) · Hull KR: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 66% | Won |
| Hull KR | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.5 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Aug 2026, 01:01 pm · Last updated: 12 Oct 2026, 03:12 am_

Wigan Warriors 46–0 Hull KR in Super League Round 25 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors 46, Hull KR 0. Flat scoreline, flatter contest.

Here's the complication: Hull KR actually looked after the ball better. Seven errors to Wigan's eleven. In most games that split wins you the arm wrestle. Here it barely rated a mention, because everything else was so lopsided it didn't matter who coughed up possession.

Run metres tell the real story: 1,544 to 1,004. Wigan found the line six times, Hull KR not once. Twenty tackle busts to fourteen sounds competitive on paper, but the line breaks and the metres say Wigan were doing it at will while Hull KR were making yardage without ever threatening to cross.

The timeline backs that up. Liam Marshall opened the account in the 8th minute, and by half-time Wigan had put on 28 unanswered points through five separate tries: Marshall twice, Jai Field once, Zach Eckersley twice. Hull KR hadn't sniffed the board. That 28-point half-time lead had already blown past the model's pre-match margin pick of 11.5 for the entire match, which tells you how far this ran past expectation.

Wigan didn't ease up either. Keighran crossed himself in the 51st, Marshall completed his hat-trick in the 66th, Wardle added a try in the 70th. Eighteen more points piled on after half-time against a side that never found a way to slow the bleeding.

The positional numbers explain why there was never a contest. Wigan held every rating edge going in: forwards 944 to 833, backs 954 to 699, halves 1,348 to 1,007, hooker 1,000 to 627. Those gaps in the spine and out wide are exactly where this game was decided, in go-forward and in who could actually finish once field position was won. Discipline mattered too. Hull KR gave away eight penalties to three, and against a side finishing at this rate, every one of those was a gift.

Hull KR arrived on the back of three wins from five, averaging 30.4 points a game. None of that form showed up. Their defence, already leaking 18.4 a game coming in, conceded 46 without reply. Whatever worked for them in recent weeks never got off the ground here.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors at 66 per cent and picked them by 11.5 on a total of 42. The winner was right, the total landed within four points of the real number, but the margin read was never going to survive a scoreline like this. Forty-six points beat the projection by well over three touchdowns' worth of arithmetic. Sometimes the right side wins by more than any sensible model would suggest, and this was one of those days.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,544** | Run metres | 1,004 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **20** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| 3 | Offloads | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.5 but the actual margin was 46 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 46, within 4 points. Wigan Warriors led 28–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 60.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 3 · Hull KR 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 65.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR +41.5 — model probability 65.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 65.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 60.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 12 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 66% to see off Hull KR. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 208 ELO points clear, 1793 to 1585. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Hull KR.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.5, with the two sides combining for about 42. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.2pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Margin | 12.0pts |
| 1411.6m | Run Metres | 1338.0m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 307.4 | Tackles | 330.4 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 33.2 |
| Hull KR | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R2 L · R24 L | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Hull KR | 62 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | GF | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R22 | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 10 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Hull KR | 12 – 28 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 9 – 2 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 24 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.92 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 4th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.58/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.96/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.92/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.79/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.88/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 34 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 107m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 85 · 38 | 50 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 517m/g | 620m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 12 | 16 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 409m/g | 305m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 91.6% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.28/g (lg 0.3) -7% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.5) -32% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.3) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 15 in 19g | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 8/12g | 45/55g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 24 in 23g | 11/10g (0·1·1·1·3·2·1·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 21/34g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.37 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 28' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 11/33g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/14g | 22/48g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 20/17g | 54/71g | 36% | — | 🏉 8' 33' 66' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 5/11g | 57/52g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.37 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 14/72g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 6/55g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/31g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Kian Mcdermott | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/35g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/59g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Walters | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/29g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Shea connor | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 8 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 22% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Harvey Horne | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Louix Gorman | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Noah Booth | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Arthur Mourgue | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/4g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Charles | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bill Leyland | HK | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam Luckley | PR | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/5g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $76.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Frankie Dearlove | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Karl Lawton | LK | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Zachary Fishwick | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Declan Murphy | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Alfie Wainberg-woods | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1793 · Hull KR 1585 · ELO difference: 208 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 43.9% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 25.1% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 5.2% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 4.2% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 3.5% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.1% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-11 16:12 UTC (latest tip update)