# Wakefield Trinity v York Knights — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 28 – 12 York Knights

_Wakefield Trinity see off York Knights._

Half time: 10 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 76% / York Knights 24% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Corey Hall (8' 1st), Lachlan Walmsley (25'), Jayden Myers (64'), Max Jowitt (66'), Lachlan Walmsley (73') · York Knights: Ben Jones-Bishop (16'), Xavier Va'a (49')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 76% | Won |
| York Knights | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.1 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Aug 2026, 08:47 pm · Last updated: 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 am_

Wakefield Trinity 28–12 York Knights in Super League Round 25 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity took a 10–4 lead into half-time against York Knights, and the second half saw them solidify their advantage. They finished 28–12 winners at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. The game was about more than just points; it was about Wakefield's ability to adjust and execute when it mattered.

The match began with Corey Hall scoring the first try for Wakefield in the 8th minute, followed by a successful conversion by Max Jowitt. York responded with a try from Ben Jones-Bishop in the 16th minute, keeping the score close. By the 25th minute, Lachlan Walmsley had extended Wakefield's lead to 10–4, which they carried into the break.

The second half started with York's Xavier Va'a scoring a try in the 49th minute, and Jonathan Bennison's conversion brought the score to 10–10. A penalty goal by Jowitt in the 57th minute put Wakefield back in front, but Bennison's penalty goal for York in the 61st minute levelled the score again at 12–12. Then, Wakefield's attack found its rhythm. Jayden Myers and Max Jowitt scored tries in the 64th and 66th minutes, respectively, with Jowitt converting his own try to make it 22–12. Lachlan Walmsley added another try in the 73rd minute, and Jowitt's conversion sealed the 28–12 victory.

Wakefield's forwards dominated the field with 1,436 run metres compared to York's 1,025. They also broke the line six times to York's one. Despite making 11 errors, Wakefield's attacking prowess was evident. York, on the other hand, couldn't capitalise on Wakefield's mistakes, even though they only made five errors themselves.

Max Jowitt was instrumental for Wakefield, contributing eight points through conversions and a penalty goal. Although York's Jonathan Bennison matched Jowitt's kicking accuracy, York couldn't keep up with Wakefield's try-scoring. Wakefield's backs, despite being rated lower before the match, delivered when it counted.

Alphr's model had predicted a Wakefield win with a 76% probability and an expected margin of 8.1 points. Wakefield exceeded expectations with a 16-point victory. The total score of 40 was close to the predicted 43, showing the model's accuracy.

York's defence showed some resilience with 35 tackle busts, but they couldn't convert this into points. Their recent form, with only one win in the last five games, continued to haunt them. Wakefield, with two wins in their last five, brought their A-game when it was needed most.

In the end, Wakefield turned a narrow half-time lead into a decisive win. Their performance at home was a testament to their ability to rise to the occasion. As the final whistle blew, it was clear that Wakefield's execution and momentum were the keys to their victory.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,436** | Run metres | 1,025 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 31 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| 11 | Errors | **5** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/6 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 11 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 8.1 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Wakefield Trinity led 10–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 3/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 18.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 4 · York Knights 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 76.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +18.5 — model probability 76.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 76.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 76% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 274 ELO points clear, 1593 to 1320. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for York Knights.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 8.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 34.8pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | -15.6pts |
| 1389.8m | Run Metres | 1061.4m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 314.2 | Tackles | 310.6 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 26.8 |
| York Knights | R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Wakefield Trinity lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | York Knights | 14 – 26 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 50% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.54 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.42 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 2nd there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.54/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 0.63/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.96/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.42/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.79/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.42/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.71/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 8 | 12 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 136m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 45 | 30 · 66 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 458m/g | 412m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 87.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 11 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 367m/g | 299m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.67/g (lg 0.25) +168% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.11) +91% · Halfbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.2) +90%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Centres 0.58/g (lg 0.5) +16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/17g | 32% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 32% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 9 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/20g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/19g | 20% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 8/10g | 41% | — | 🏉 25' 73' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/21g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Mike McMeeken | 2R | 2 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Mason Lino | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/22g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 10 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 10/12g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Liam Harris | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 5 in 17g | 5/10g (2·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 6 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Denive Balmforth | LK | 6 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 16 | Jordan Thompson | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1593 · York Knights 1320 · ELO difference: 274 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 52.4% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Halves Control | 14.3% | York Knights |
| 3 | Rest Days | 10.8% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 4.2% | York Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 2.3% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 2.1% | York Knights |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-11 14:15 UTC (latest tip update)