# Toulouse Olympique v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 28 – 18 Bradford Bulls

_Toulouse Olympique see off Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 63% / Bradford Bulls 37% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 30 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Paul Ulberg (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Luke Polselli (15' Tipped ⚡), John Toleafoa (35'), Mathieu Jussaume (72' Tipped ⚡), Romeo Tropis (77') · Bradford Bulls: Chris Atkin (31'), Andy Ackers (56'), Alfie Leake (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 63% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 27.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Aug 2026, 08:31 pm · Last updated: 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 am_

Toulouse Olympique 28–18 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 25 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique's win over Bradford Bulls turned on a decisive passage late in the game. With the score at 16-12, Bradford looked like they might rally, but Toulouse shut the door with tries in the 72nd and 77th minutes. Mathieu Jussaume and Romeo Tropis crossed the line, and Cesar Rouge's conversions left Bradford with no room to recover.

Despite a late try by Alfie Leake in the 79th minute, the damage was done. Toulouse secured a 28-18 victory at Stade Ernest Wallon. It wasn't the blowout the pre-match model predicted, which expected a 27.7-point margin, but a win is a win. The 10-point victory was enough to break Toulouse's recent losing streak and provide a platform for improvement.

The game stats painted a picture of grit over glamour. Toulouse edged Bradford in run metres, 1,098 to 1,042. These metres translated into more scoring opportunities, as Toulouse capitalised on their chances despite having fewer line breaks. Bradford managed five line breaks to Toulouse’s four but couldn't convert these into points when it counted.

Bradford showed slightly better ball control, committing 11 errors to Toulouse's 12. This small margin reflected their slightly more disciplined play. Bradford’s tackling was also more robust, with 34 tackle busts compared to Toulouse's 27. However, strong defence alone wasn't enough to secure a win.

Discipline was a factor, with Toulouse conceding nine penalties to Bradford’s seven. These infractions could have been costly, but Toulouse managed to keep the upper hand.

Bradford’s forwards, rated stronger on paper with a pre-match rating of 902 to Toulouse’s 746, couldn't meet expectations. Their possession was promising but ultimately squandered by missed opportunities at crucial moments. Their form coming into the match, no wins in five games, didn't help build the momentum needed for an upset.

Toulouse's backline was effective, with players like Paul Ulberg and Luke Polselli stepping up when needed. They held a slight edge in the halves, with a strength rating of 801 to Bradford’s 800. These small advantages contributed to their success.

Alphr's model correctly predicted a Toulouse victory, giving a 63% probability to a home win. Although the model missed the margin, it accurately anticipated a total score close to the actual 46 points, just shy of the predicted 51. The call for a total under 52.5 was spot on.

In the end, the 28-18 scoreline reflected two teams at different stages of their form cycles. Toulouse capitalised on key moments, leaving Bradford to wonder what might have been with a few more favourable bounces.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,098** | Run metres | 1,042 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **34** |
| 5 | Offloads | **13** |
| 12 | Errors | **11** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **7** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 12 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 27.7 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 51 was close to the actual 46, within 5 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 9 · Bradford Bulls 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique -18.5 — model probability 62.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 25+ — model probability 62.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 28 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Toulouse Olympique are the call at 63%, but Bradford Bulls stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Toulouse Olympique sit 154 ELO points clear, 1447 to 1293. Form leans Toulouse Olympique's way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Bradford Bulls.

Toulouse Olympique own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Toulouse Olympique by 27.7, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean Toulouse Olympique, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 9.6pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 44.0pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | -34.4pts |
| 1107.4m | Run Metres | 1010.4m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 2.2 |
| 311.8 | Tackles | 369.4 |
| 13.4 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 W | 15.2 |
| Bradford Bulls | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 9.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Bradford Bulls lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Bradford Bulls | 18 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique | Bradford Bulls 73% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 11th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.04 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.04/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.29/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 9th) | 1.13/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 3/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.21/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.63/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 12 | 11 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 114m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 62 | 40 · 61 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 555m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 13 | 11 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 280m/g | 278m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 94.1% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.29/g (lg 0.06) +383% · Five-Eighths 0.5/g (lg 0.21) +138% · Hookers 0.25/g (lg 0.11) +127%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.88/g (lg 0.5) +76% · Wingers 1.54/g (lg 0.99) +56% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 7 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 3 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 15 in 21g | 9/10g (2·0·0·2·3·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Luke Hooley | CE | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 9 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Connor Wynne | WG | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Riley Dean | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | 🎯 First Try $101.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 10 | Ebon Scurr | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | William Gardiner | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Eliot Peposhi | 2R | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Ward | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Gill | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Alfie Leake | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 17 | Leon Ruan | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1447 · Bradford Bulls 1293 · ELO difference: 154 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 31.1% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2 | Halves Control | 17.6% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 13.6% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 10.5% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 6.7% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Rest Days | 4.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 7 | Backline Quality | 3.8% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 28 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-11 14:15 UTC (latest tip update)