# St Helens v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win St Helens v Leeds Rhinos?

Alphr's Super League model makes Leeds Rhinos a clear 65% favourite over St Helens in Round 25. Predicted result: Leeds Rhinos by 8 in a low-scoring game (39 total). **Confidence: High.** Leeds Rhinos lead on Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Forward Pack.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.27 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### St Helens v Leeds Rhinos
Sat, 29 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · The BrewDog Stadium · Round 25

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 65.2%
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +9.5 — model probability 65.2%
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 65.2%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 8 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 65% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 271 ELO points clear, 1780 to 1509. Form leans Leeds Rhinos's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Forward Pack. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 39. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 38.8pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 24.8pts |
| 1224.0m | Run Metres | 1389.8m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 7.0 |
| 294.2 | Tackles | 269.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W | 29.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 38.8 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Leeds Rhinos win, around 23–16 (total ~39).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the market line (model projects 39).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-27 03:01 UTC (latest tip update)