# St Helens v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 6 – 34 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over St Helens._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 35% / Leeds Rhinos 65% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 29 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Jack Welsby (51' Tipped ⚡) · Leeds Rhinos: Chris Hankinson (6' 1st), Cameron Smith (31'), Harry Newman (36' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Hall (46'), Ash Handley (54'), Brodie Croft (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 65% | Won |
| St Helens | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Aug 2026, 01:01 pm · Last updated: 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 am_

St Helens 6–34 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 25 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos led just 0-6 for the best part of half an hour at The BrewDog Stadium, and then the match turned in six brutal minutes. Cameron Smith scored in the 31st, Harry Newman followed in the 36th, Jake Connor slotted both conversions, and a manageable gap became an 18-0 half-time score St Helens never threatened to close. That burst was the match.

Chris Hankinson had opened the scoring in the 6th minute, Connor converting to make it 0-6, and for a while St Helens looked like they might hang in. They didn't. Ryan Hall extended it to 0-22 six minutes into the second half, and St Helens finally got on the board through Jack Welsby in the 51st, Tristan Sailor's conversion making it 6-22. That was as close as the scoreboard ever read again. Ash Handley crossed in the 54th, Brodie Croft in the 62nd, Connor kicking both goals, and Leeds Rhinos closed it out 34-6.

The stat sheet matches the scoreline. Leeds Rhinos ran for 1,641 metres to St Helens' 903, nearly double, and turned that platform into six line breaks against two. Fifty-one tackle busts to 32 tells the same story from a different angle: Leeds Rhinos kept finding space, and St Helens kept scrambling to shut it down.

St Helens actually won the discipline and ball-control battles, conceding just 3 penalties to 8 and coughing up only 11 errors to Leeds Rhinos' 12. None of it mattered much. When one side is out-metred by 738 and out-broken three to one, tidy footwork with the ball doesn't move the needle far.

The halves gap explains plenty of it. Leeds Rhinos came in rated 1092 to St Helens' 780 in that department, and it showed all night in how easily they generated shape and quick ball. Their forward pack, rated 1004 to 915, gave them go-forward St Helens couldn't live with, and it fed everything Connor and company did out the back. St Helens actually held the edge in the backs, 912 to 820, but a stronger spine through the middle and the halves tends to nullify that fairly quickly once the ball stops arriving clean.

Form lined up with the result too. Leeds Rhinos arrived on four wins from their last five, averaging 38.8 points a game and conceding just 14, with an average margin near 25 points. St Helens had won two of their last five but were leaking almost 27 a game themselves, their form reading LLLWW against Leeds Rhinos' WWWLW. Leeds Rhinos essentially played to their season average, St Helens to theirs, and the gap between those two profiles is exactly what turned up on the board.

Alphr's model backed Leeds Rhinos at 65% and picked a 39-point total, landing within a point of the actual 40. The margin read was the miss, tipped at 7.7 when the real gap finished at 28. St Helens' first 25 minutes were competitive enough to suggest a tighter night, right up until that second-quarter burst decided otherwise. The model finished 5 from 17 on this card, with the under 42.5 total the one call that stuck.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 903 | Run metres | **1,641** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 32 | Tackle busts | **51** |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 5/7 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 12 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Leeds Rhinos led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 5/17 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties St Helens 3 · Leeds Rhinos 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 65.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +9.5 — model probability 65.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 65.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 8 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 65% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 271 ELO points clear, 1780 to 1509. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Forward Pack. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 39. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 38.8pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 24.8pts |
| 1224.0m | Run Metres | 1389.8m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 7.0 |
| 294.2 | Tackles | 269.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 W | 29.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 38.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 24 – 16 | St Helens | St Helens 53% ✗ |
| 2025 | EF | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 16 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R18 | Leeds Rhinos | 0 – 6 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | St Helens | 18 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | St Helens | 4 – 17 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Murphy, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.29 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 11th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.21/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.54/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.92/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 6th) | 3.21/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.29/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.54/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 36 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 201m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 43 | 56 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 479m/g | 339m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.1/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 85.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 14 | 25 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 336m/g | 346m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Wingers 0.76/g (lg 0.99) -23% · Fullbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.25) -24%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.3) -13% · Wingers 0.85/g (lg 0.99) -14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 10 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 2/5g | 16/24g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Welsby | CE | 11 in 16g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 5/14g | 38/69g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 6/15g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 14/69g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Harry Robertson | HB | 7 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/21g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Shorrocks | HK | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Davies | 2R | 9 in 21g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 4/11g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 2/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Jacob Host | LK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Walmsley | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/21g | 12/64g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | William Keeley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Ryan Hall | WG | 9 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/18g | 1/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 54' |
| 5 | Harry Newman | WG | 9 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 1/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 23g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/23g | 0/7g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 27 in 23g | 12/10g (1·0·1·3·2·1·1·1·1·1) | 2/10g | 1/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 31% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/18g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 6' |
| 12 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/24g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Presley Cassell | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Danny Levi | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/17g | 2/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 31' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1509 · Leeds Rhinos 1780 · ELO difference: 271 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 33.5% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 22.7% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 7.5% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 3.4% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.2% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-11 14:15 UTC (latest tip update)