# Hull FC v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 14 – 16 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves hunt down Hull FC in a tight one._

Half time: 2 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 38% / Warrington Wolves 62% · MKM Stadium · Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Ethan O'Neill (63' Tipped ⚡), Tom Briscoe (66' Tipped ⚡) · Warrington Wolves: Leon Hayes (33' 1st), Matty Ashton (36'), Josh Thewlis (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 62% | Won |
| Hull FC | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.4 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Aug 2026, 08:31 pm · Last updated: 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 am_

Hull FC 14–16 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 25 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves edged Hull FC 16-14 at MKM Stadium. The final margin of two points says it was far tighter than the 12-2 half-time gap suggested. Warrington led 12-2 at half-time and held on.

Leon Hayes opened the scoring for Warrington with a try in the 33rd minute, followed by a conversion and another try by Matty Ashton. Warrington's early lead was built on hard running, with 1,490 run metres compared to Hull's 1,264. Hull FC, however, refused to be subdued and mounted a spirited comeback after the break.

Both teams committed 11 errors, but Hull FC had a slight edge in discipline, conceding seven penalties to Warrington's eight. Warrington's 34 tackle busts to Hull's 24 highlighted their physicality, which was crucial in the first half.

Hull FC found their rhythm in the second half. Ethan O'Neill and Tom Briscoe scored tries, with Aidan Sezer converting both to bring Hull within two points. Despite having more offloads, five to four, Hull FC struggled to consistently break Warrington's defensive line.

Warrington's forward pack, rated at 810 compared to Hull's 763, held strong under pressure. Their backline and halves also had higher ratings, which helped them maintain their lead. Josh Thewlis' second-half try was vital in securing the win.

Warrington Wolves extended their winning streak to six matches. Their average of conceding 16.8 points per game stood them in good stead against Hull FC, who averaged 21.8 points scored. Warrington's form this season made them favourites, but Hull FC showed they could challenge a top-tier team.

Alphr's model predicted a Warrington win with a 62% probability, but the expected margin of 20.4 points was off. The game ended with a narrow two-point difference, and the combined point total of 30 was below the predicted 49, reflecting a gritty battle rather than a high-scoring affair.

The model went 4/17 on this match. Hull FC can take solace in pushing a top side to the brink. Warrington, while pleased with the win, will need to work on turning narrow victories into more comfortable wins.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,264 | Run metres | **1,490** |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **34** |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 2 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.4 but the actual margin was 2 points. The game's 30 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 49. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (35/100) — penalties Hull FC 7 · Warrington Wolves 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 61.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves -6.5 — model probability 61.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 13-24 — model probability 61.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 20 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 62%, but Hull FC stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 333 ELO points clear, 1667 to 1334. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull FC.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 20.4, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 37.6pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -1.8pts | Avg Margin | 20.8pts |
| 1404.8m | Run Metres | 1487.2m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 7.6 |
| 314.4 | Tackles | 299.2 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 21.8 |
| Warrington Wolves | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R2 W · R24 W | 37.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 4 | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Hull FC | 34 – 2 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 28 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.83 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Barron, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.04 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 6th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) | 0.75/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.13/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 6th) | 3.04/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 13 | 15 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 90m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 90.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 52 | 37 · 41 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 553m/g | 395m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 11.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 86.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 17 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 299m/g | 309m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.45/g (lg 0.5) -10%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.25) +40% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/13g | 13% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·3·1·0) | 3/4g | 21/31g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Davy Litten | CE | 10 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/5g | 9/28g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 5/30g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 9 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/6g | 25/33g | 56% | — | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 1/22g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/28g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 3/13g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/8g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Ligi Sao | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/41g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Arthur Romano | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Lloyd Kemp | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 14 in 24g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Luke Thomas | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Philbin | INT | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull FC 1334 · Warrington Wolves 1667 · ELO difference: 333 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 40.9% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 26.9% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Halves Control | 3.5% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Rest Days | 3.5% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.5% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 3.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | Backline Quality | 2.8% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 20 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-11 14:15 UTC (latest tip update)