# Castleford Tigers v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 25 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 6 – 34 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons scorch Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 47% / Catalans Dragons 53% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 29 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Lazarus Vaalepu (36') · Catalans Dragons: Toby Sexton (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Edenn Rogers-Smith (19'), Leo Darrelatour (46'), Ben Condon (58'), Lewis Dodd (69' Tipped ⚡), Toby Sexton (72' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 53% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 25 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Aug 2026, 01:01 pm · Last updated: 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 am_

Castleford Tigers 6–34 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 25 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers wanted to hold onto the ball and grind. Catalans Dragons wanted to move it and let their backs do the damage. Only one of those plans survived contact, and it wasn't the grind.

The final score, 34-6 to Catalans Dragons at The OneBore Stadium, tells you who won that argument. The stats tell you how. Catalans ran for 1,300 metres to Castleford's 1,085, but the gap that mattered more was what they did with the ball once it was in hand: 13 offloads to Castleford's 5, and 7 line breaks to 3. That's a side playing with width and support runners, not just crashing it up. Castleford, for all their possession, only troubled the line three times all night.

Toby Sexton opened the scoring in the 7th minute, and by the 21st Catalans were out to 12-0 after Edenn Rogers-Smith crossed and Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet slotted both conversions. Castleford finally got on the board through Lazarus Vaalepu in the 36th, with Ben McNamara's conversion making it 6-12 at the break. That was as close as it got.

The second half belonged entirely to Catalans. Leo Darrelatour scored in the 46th, Ben Condon added another in the 58th, then Lewis Dodd and a second Sexton try either side of the 70-minute mark turned a competitive scoreline into a rout. Sexton finished with two tries and set up the one that got the whole thing rolling, about as complete a night as one man can have.

The pre-match numbers had this leaning Catalans' way, but nowhere near this one-sided. Alphr's model rated them 1285 to Castleford's 1327 and had Catalans favoured by 5.2 points on a combined total of 42. The final margin was 28, so the head was right, the size of it wasn't. The total, 40 points, landed within two of the model's number, which is something.

The positional read explains a lot of it in hindsight. Catalans came in rated stronger in the backs, 1064 to 924, and it was the backline that did the scoring: Rogers-Smith, Darrelatour, Condon and Dodd all crossed to go with Sexton's brace. Castleford's one clear advantage on paper was at hooker, 1221 to 600, but a strong number nine wasn't going to matter much when the forwards in front of him, rated 852 to 870, couldn't get parity up front. They didn't get near it in run metres either.

Form lines pointed to this kind of night for Castleford too. They'd gone LLLWL in their last five, conceding an average of 38.8 points a game, while Catalans had at least been scoring at 17.2 points a game despite their own indifferent run of WLLLL. The gap in class was always going to show up somewhere. It showed up in the tries.

Discipline barely came into it: four penalties conceded to five, errors dead level at 13 apiece. This wasn't won on field position or mistakes. Catalans simply had more ways to hurt Castleford, and Castleford didn't have the go-forward to make them pay for the one period, just before half-time, when they were on top.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1,085 | Run metres | **1,300** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **21** |
| 5 | Offloads | **13** |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.2 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 40, within 2 points. Catalans Dragons led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 6/17 on this match. Catalans Dragons covered the 0.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (9/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 5 · Catalans Dragons 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +0.5 — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 5 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Castleford Tigers and Catalans Dragons. The model can't split them, landing on Catalans Dragons at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Castleford Tigers sit 41 ELO points clear, 1327 to 1285, so the model is backing Catalans Dragons against the ratings gap.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, Venue Advantage and Forward Pack. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 42. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 38.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.0pts |
| -26.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 1155.8m | Run Metres | 1183.4m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 323.4 | Tackles | 307.8 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L | 12.4 |
| Catalans Dragons | R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L · R24 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Catalans Dragons | 34 – 28 | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons 51% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 4 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 26 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R18 | Castleford Tigers | 24 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R5 | Catalans Dragons | 40 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 12th there (2.71 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.88/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.13/g (def 10th) | 1.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.71/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.42/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.92/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 20 | 18 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 91m/g | 111m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 89.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 69 | 46 · 57 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 358m/g | 518m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 25 | 13 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 289m/g | 244m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.7% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.3) +57% · Wingers 1.55/g (lg 0.99) +57%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Sarbah | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 0 in 5g | 7/10g (2·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Louis Senior | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 0/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 3 in 24g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/14g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Ben McNamara | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 2/6g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 4/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Brown | 2R | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Hall | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 36' |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 11 in 23g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Clement Martin | CE | 0 in 4g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 4 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 8 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 72' |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Edenn Rogers-Smith | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 12 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Alrix Costa | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 58' |
| 15 | Giovanni Descalzi | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Mickael Goudemand | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Castleford Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1327 vs 1285), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.96). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1327 · Catalans Dragons 1285 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Castleford Tigers

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 47.9% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Halves Control | 17.7% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | ELO Difference | 6.3% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 4.8% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.2% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.6% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-11 14:15 UTC (latest tip update)