# York Knights v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 16 – 66 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos put York Knights to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 32% / Leeds Rhinos 68% · LNER Community Stadium · Mon, 24 Aug, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Sam Wood (44'), Jonathan Bennison (67' Tipped ⚡), David Nofoaluma (73') · Leeds Rhinos: Riley Lumb (6' 1st), Riley Lumb (11' 1st), Chris Hankinson (13'), Kallum Watkins (17'), Mikolaj Oledzki (24'), Lachie Miller (26' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Lodge (41'), Ryan Hall (55'), Riley Lumb (58' 1st), Brodie Croft (62' Tipped ⚡), Ash Handley (77'), Chris Hankinson (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 68% | Won |
| York Knights | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 23.6 predicted → 50 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Aug 2026, 08:42 am · Last updated: 3 Oct 2026, 08:58 pm_

York Knights 16–66 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 24 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos dismantled York Knights with a first-half onslaught at LNER Community Stadium. The match was effectively decided in the opening 28 minutes, with Leeds scoring six tries to lead 36–0 at the break. Riley Lumb set the tone early, crossing twice in the first 12 minutes. York Knights were left chasing shadows.

Leeds Rhinos dominated from the start. Jake Connor's accurate boot added five conversions in the first half-hour, turning their early dominance into a commanding lead. By half-time, the Rhinos had built an insurmountable 36-point advantage, setting the stage for their eventual 66–16 victory.

York Knights struggled to find their footing. Their first points came in the 44th minute when Sam Wood scored, followed by Jonathan Bennison and David Nofoaluma. However, Leeds had already extended their lead with two more tries, keeping the Knights at bay. It was a case of too little, too late for York.

The stats highlighted Leeds' superiority. They racked up 1,571 run metres to York's 772, showcasing their ability to break through the Knights' defence. Leeds also dominated the line breaks, 12 to 3, and committed fewer errors, 8 to York's 10.

Leeds Rhinos' forwards were a formidable presence, with a pre-match strength rating of 998 compared to York's 769. Mikolaj Oledzki and Matthew Lodge exemplified this, both scoring tries and consistently breaking through York's defensive line.

Leeds' backline was equally potent. Riley Lumb and Chris Hankinson were relentless, scoring five tries between them. Kallum Watkins and Brodie Croft also contributed, slicing through York's defence with ease.

Discipline played a role in the outcome. Leeds conceded just three penalties, while York conceded four. These small differences added up, allowing Leeds to exploit every opportunity.

York's recent form suggested a tough match ahead. With only one win in their last five games compared to Leeds' three, the Knights' weaknesses were exposed. Leeds capitalised on York's tackling and handling errors, turning them into scoring opportunities.

Alphr's model had predicted a Leeds win with a 68% probability. While the model's 23.6-point margin was off, the actual 50-point margin highlighted Leeds' attacking strength. The total points scored also far exceeded the model's prediction, underscoring Leeds' offensive capabilities.

In the end, the 50-point margin was a testament to Leeds' dominance and York's inability to compete. Leeds Rhinos demonstrated superior attacking and defensive skills, leaving York Knights to regroup and prepare for their next challenge.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 772 | Run metres | **1,571** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **12** |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **30** |
| 4 | Offloads | **11** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 12 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 9/12 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 23.6 but the actual margin was 50 points. The game's 82 points came in 38 points higher than the predicted 45. Leeds Rhinos led 0–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 50. The model went 5/17 on this match. Leeds Rhinos covered the 16.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties York Knights 4 · Leeds Rhinos 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 68.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos -16.5 — model probability 68.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — model probability 68.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 24 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 68% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 442 ELO points clear, 1771 to 1329. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for York Knights.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 23.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 14.4pts |
| 1126.8m | Run Metres | 1383.4m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 6.0 |
| 303.2 | Tackles | 284.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 20.4 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leeds Rhinos lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Leeds Rhinos | 46 – 14 | York Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.43 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 1st there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.3 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 9th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.61/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 10th) | 0.43/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.61/g (def 11th (weak)) | 3.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.74/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th) | 2.3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 21 | 35 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 94m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 91.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 62 | 52 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 420m/g | 335m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 86.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 18 | 23 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 304m/g | 344m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Wingers 0.77/g (lg 0.99) -22% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.2) -25%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.7/g (lg 0.26) +169% · Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.11) +100% · Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.2) +75%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 10 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 7/10g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/9g | 22% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 5 in 16g | 5/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Paul McShane | HB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/24g | 0/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ata Hingano | LK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Thompson | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/11g | 22% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 2 | Ryan Hall | WG | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 9 in 21g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Riley Lumb | WG | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 6' 11' 58' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 26 in 22g | 12/10g (1·1·0·1·3·2·1·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 32% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 13' 79' |
| 12 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 13 | Presley Cassell | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Lodge | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 41' |
| 15 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Zak Lloyd | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1329 · Leeds Rhinos 1771 · ELO difference: 442 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 38.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 22.9% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Halves Control | 9.5% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 5.3% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 3.3% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 24 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-03 10:58 UTC (latest tip update)