# Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 26 – 12 Wakefield Trinity

_Wigan Warriors march past Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 82% / Wakefield Trinity 18% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sat, 22 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Bevan French (16' 1st Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (22'), Liam Marshall (26'), Jai Field (64' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Corey Hall (52'), Ky Rodwell (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 82% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Aug 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 3 Oct 2026, 08:57 pm_

Wigan Warriors 26–12 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 24 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors built a commanding 20-0 lead by half-time and rode that cushion to a 26-12 victory over Wakefield Trinity at The Brick Community Stadium. Bevan French got them started on 16 minutes. By the time Liam Marshall had completed his brace by the 26th minute, the game had already tilted heavily in Wigan's favour. Adam Keighran’s reliable boot made sure the pressure stayed on, converting all three of those tries and adding a late first-half penalty goal.

Wakefield Trinity mounted a modest challenge in the second half. Corey Hall and Ky Rodwell both managed to find the try-line for Wakefield, with Max Jowitt converting both efforts. However, Jai Field's try and another conversion from Keighran in the 64th minute ensured there was no real threat of a comeback.

Despite the winning margin, Wigan didn’t have it all their own way statistically. They were outgunned in run metres, 1,566 to Wigan’s 1,529, and matched in line breaks at three apiece. Their efficiency told the tale. Wigan made fewer errors, 10 to Wakefield’s 13, and were tidier at the ruck, conceding just four penalties compared to Wakefield's six. The scoreboard pressure created by Wigan’s early onslaught proved invaluable.

Defensively, Wakefield showed resilience in certain periods, busting 37 tackles to Wigan's 23 and managing more offloads, 11 compared to five. Yet, it was the Warriors’ composed execution that held sway, reinforced by their superior positional strength ratings, particularly in the halves and backs. The halves rating was especially lopsided: 1348 for Wigan versus 780 for Wakefield, providing a platform for Wigan’s structured attack.

Wigan came into the match on a five-game winning streak, and they lived up to the form book. Their average margin of victory in recent games stood at 21.2 points, not far off this game's 14-point difference. Wakefield, on the other hand, showed signs of vulnerability after back-to-back losses before this match, and those frailties were laid bare once more.

Alphr's model had Wigan as firm favourites, assigning them an 82% chance of winning. The expected margin was pegged at 11 points, and Wigan surpassed this with a 14-point victory. The model’s total score prediction of 44 was close too, only 6 points off the actual 38. It’s a respectable performance from the model, hitting key calls on both the margin and the total.

In the end, Wigan Warriors had done enough early to control the game, and while Wakefield showed patches of fight, it was too late. The margin might not have fully reflected Wakefield’s late showing, but it’s the early scoreboard pressure that wrote the script. Points at the right times can tilt any contest.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,529 | Run metres | **1,566** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **37** |
| 5 | Offloads | **11** |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 82% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wigan Warriors by 11.0 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 38, within 6 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 18.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 4 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 81.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity +18.5 — model probability 81.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 81.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 82% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 166 ELO points clear, 1776 to 1611. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 3 of 4 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Forward Pack. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1380.6m | Run Metres | 1373.4m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 294.8 | Tackles | 316.8 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 32.8 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 L | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 33 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2026 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 48 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2025 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 44 – 2 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 10 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2023 | R18 | Wakefield Trinity | 27 – 26 | Wigan Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 8th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Hodkinson, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.91 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.48/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.57/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.96/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.87/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.48/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 14 | 13 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 105m/g | 136m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 82 · 37 | 58 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 508m/g | 451m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 18 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 407m/g | 368m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.25) +24% · Centres 0.59/g (lg 0.5) +18%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20% · 2nd Rows 0.23/g (lg 0.3) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 14 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·3·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/8g | 44/54g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 24 in 22g | 12/10g (1·0·1·1·1·3·2·1·2·0) | 3/4g | 21/33g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 11 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 11/32g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/11g | 22/47g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 16/14g | 52/70g | 32% | — | 🏉 22' 26' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 12/11g | 56/51g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 14/71g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 6/54g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/30g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Kian Mcdermott | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 22g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 2/34g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/58g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Joshua Cartwright | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Shea connor | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/12g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (1·1·2·2·3·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 91% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 9 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 37% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Mike McMeeken | LK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Emre Guler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1776 · Wakefield Trinity 1611 · ELO difference: 166 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 44.9% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Halves Control | 24.3% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 6.8% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 3.5% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r24-wigan-warriors-v-wakefield-trinity
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-03 10:57 UTC (latest tip update)