# St Helens v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 36 – 12 Castleford Tigers

_St Helens march all over Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 59% / Castleford Tigers 41% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sun, 23 Aug, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Jack Welsby (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Shane Wright (6'), Jacob Douglas (21' Tipped ⚡), Tom Humphreys (23'), Tristan Sailor (36' Tipped ⚡), Nene Macdonald (47') · Castleford Tigers: Louis Senior (52'), Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e (62')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 59% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Aug 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 3 Oct 2026, 08:57 pm_

St Helens 36–12 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 24 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens took control from the outset, overwhelming Castleford Tigers with a scoring blitz that saw them lead 30-0 by half-time. Jack Welsby set the tone with a try just three minutes in. By the break, St Helens had crossed the line five times, with Jackson Hastings converting each try. Castleford were left reeling, unable to mount a meaningful challenge.

The final score was 36-12, but the game was effectively decided in the first half. St Helens' halves, rated much stronger than Castleford's, orchestrated the attack with precision. The Tigers, scrambling in defence, couldn't withstand the onslaught. St Helens' dominance was clear, with tries from Shane Wright, Jacob Douglas, Tom Humphreys, and Tristan Sailor adding to Welsby's opener.

Castleford managed to respond in the second half with tries from Louis Senior and Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e, both converted by Ben McNamara. However, their efforts were insufficient to close the gap. The Tigers showed flashes of attacking potential but lacked consistency. By the time they found some rhythm, the game was beyond reach.

The match stats highlighted St Helens' superiority. They gained 1,416 run metres compared to Castleford's 1,205. Their six line breaks were crucial in exploiting defensive gaps, while Castleford managed just four. Both teams were guilty of errors, with St Helens making 10 and Castleford 12, but the Saints were more effective with their possession.

Castleford's discipline was a minor positive, conceding only five penalties to St Helens' ten. However, this advantage did little to alter the game's momentum. St Helens' relentless attack and the Tigers' struggling forward pack, rated lower pre-match, were key factors in the 24-point margin.

Alphr's model had given St Helens a 59% probability of victory, predicting a closer contest with a 4.5-point margin. The actual 24-point gap showed St Helens exceeded expectations. The model's total points prediction was accurate for an under 49.5 call, a small consolation in a match that defied precise prediction.

Both teams entered the match with two wins from their last five games. Castleford had been conceding an average of 38.4 points, while St Helens' defence held firm, allowing only 12. The Tigers' average score of 17.2 was reduced against a robust St Helens defence, managing just 12 points.

Ultimately, the match was decided early. St Helens' first-half surge laid the foundation for a decisive win. Castleford's late attempts offered some respite but never threatened the outcome. For St Helens, it was a strong statement. For the Tigers, a clear indication of the gap they need to bridge.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,416** | Run metres | 1,205 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **29** |
| 6 | Offloads | **17** |
| **10** | Errors | 12 |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 10 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 12 |
| 2 | Sin Bins | 1 |
| 1 | Send Offs | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (24/100) — penalties St Helens 10 · Castleford Tigers 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 58.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +14.5 — model probability 58.7% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 58.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 5 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 59%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 134 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1352.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has St Helens by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 38.4pts |
| 1.6pts | Avg Margin | -21.2pts |
| 1202.0m | Run Metres | 1131.6m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 293.4 | Tackles | 312.2 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 6.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 29.2 |
| Castleford Tigers | R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 W | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 10 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R27 | St Helens | 26 – 24 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R20 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R2 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 46 | St Helens |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 4 – 60 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.04 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.65 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 6th there (1.74 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.65/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.87/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.74/g (def 6th) | 1.65/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.09/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.43/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 7 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 204m/g | 93m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 90.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 42 | 31 · 66 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 473m/g | 362m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 83.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 14 | 8 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 331m/g | 286m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 94.8% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Wingers 1.56/g (lg 0.99) +58% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.3) +57%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.3) -13% · Wingers 0.85/g (lg 0.99) -14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 9 in 23g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/4g | 15/23g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 31% Market priced | — |
| 4 | Jack Welsby | CE | 10 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 7/13g | 37/68g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 6/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/13g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Harry Robertson | HB | 7 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 3/2g | 9/20g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 12/63g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Shorrocks | HK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Davies | 2R | 9 in 20g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 4/10g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/13g | 14% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 13 | Jacob Host | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 23' |
| 16 | William Keeley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 0 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 3 in 23g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1486 · Castleford Tigers 1352 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 26.7% | St Helens |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 20.2% | St Helens |
| 3 | Halves Control | 16.5% | St Helens |
| 4 | Rest Days | 13.4% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 7.6% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 7.4% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — St Helens predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r24-st-helens-v-castleford-tigers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-03 10:57 UTC (latest tip update)