# Hull KR v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 12 – 32 Toulouse Olympique

_Toulouse Olympique see off Hull KR._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 74% / Toulouse Olympique 26% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sun, 23 Aug, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Elliot Minchella (34'), Louix Gorman (78') · Toulouse Olympique: Mathieu Jussaume (29' 1st Tipped 🎯), Romeo Tropis (56'), Anthony Marion (61'), Paul Ulberg (65' Tipped ⚡), Romeo Tropis (70'), Luke Polselli (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 74% | Lost |
| Toulouse Olympique | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Aug 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 3 Oct 2026, 08:57 pm_

Hull KR 12–32 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 24 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR started with promise but couldn't sustain it against Toulouse Olympique, going down 32–12 at Sewell Group Craven Park. At half-time, it was anyone’s game with the scores tied at 6–6. But Hull KR lost their way in the second half, particularly in defence, where they allowed too many runs to break their line.

Elliot Minchella and Louix Gorman were the ones to find the try line for Hull KR. Minchella's try was a highlight in a first half that saw them match Toulouse point for point. But beyond the scoreboard, the cracks were beginning to show. Hull KR managed only two line breaks the entire game, a paltry effort compared to Toulouse's five. Their defensive frailty was evident with just 12 tackle busts, a stark contrast to the 57 from Toulouse Olympique.

The forwards, rated higher pre-match, failed to convert that strength into dominance. Hull KR ran for 1,015 metres, well shy of Toulouse’s 1,473. Despite the pre-match readings suggesting a stronger pack, that advantage never translated into the grunt needed when it mattered. Errors compounded issues, with 12 mistakes handing possession back at crucial moments, one more than Toulouse.

Hull KR weren't without their efforts in attack, showing flashes of potential. However, their discipline let them down, conceding 10 penalties. This kept Toulouse within striking distance and allowed them to build momentum in the second half. When things got tight, it was Toulouse’s composure and discipline that made the difference.

Toulouse Olympique took advantage of every slip-up. Mathieu Jussaume opened the scoring, signalling their intent early. The floodgates opened post-break with tries from Romeo Tropis, Anthony Marion, Paul Ulberg, and Luke Polselli. Cesar Rouge was clinical with the boot, converting four tries, as Toulouse piled on the points in a decisive twenty-minute spell.

Pre-match, Hull KR seemed the logical favourite. The model gave them a 74% chance of coming out on top with a predicted win margin of 6.4 points. But reality took a different path. A 20-point defeat shows just how far they fell short, highlighting the gap between expectation and execution.

Despite the numerical edge shown in average scores and margins coming in, Hull KR were found wanting. Their recent form had been strong, four wins from their last five, and an average score of 34.8 points. But Toulouse, despite their recent struggles, managed to turn the tables, covering the 20.5-point line with ease.

This match laid bare Hull KR's deficiencies when pressured by a determined attacker. Toulouse Olympique were sharper and more decisive when it counted. Lessons are there for Hull KR to learn, if they’re to bounce back from this defeat.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1,015 | Run metres | **1,473** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 12 | Tackle busts | **57** |
| 5 | Offloads | **12** |
| 12 | Errors | **11** |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 4/7 |
| 10 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Toulouse Olympique defied the model's 74% prediction for Hull KR, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 20.5-point line. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Hull KR 10 · Toulouse Olympique 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 74.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +20.5 — model probability 74.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 74.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 74% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 256 ELO points clear, 1644 to 1388. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Toulouse Olympique.

On paper Toulouse Olympique shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Venue Advantage and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 34.8pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 32.0pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Margin | -17.2pts |
| 1457.2m | Run Metres | 1050.0m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 317.0 | Tackles | 310.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R2 L | 34.8 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Hull KR lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Toulouse Olympique | 0 – 46 | Hull KR |
| 2022 | R22 | Hull KR | 22 – 16 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R17 | Toulouse Olympique | 28 – 6 | Hull KR |
| 2022 | R9 | Toulouse Olympique | 24 – 28 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 13th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.96/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.26/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.91/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.91/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 1.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 8 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 113m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 90.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 29 | 46 · 62 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 625m/g | 544m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 17.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 82.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 23 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 309m/g | 280m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.5) +82% · Wingers 1.61/g (lg 0.99) +63% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.06) +50%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.3) -10% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.14) -36% · Centres 0.32/g (lg 0.5) -36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 12 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 15/27g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 13/36g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 8 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 16/31g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 18 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 4/3g | 31/30g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ryan Hampshire | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Charles | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/38g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 13/60g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 4/52g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 14/43g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Karl Lawton | LK | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Elliot Minchella | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/59g | 8% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/48g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/18g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Louix Gorman | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 78' |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 56' 70' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $14.00 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $76.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 14 in 20g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·2·3·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 23% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 29' |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1644 · Toulouse Olympique 1388 · ELO difference: 256 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 54.3% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Halves Control | 11.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Venue Advantage | 6.8% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 6.5% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 5.2% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Rest Days | 3.4% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 7 | Forward Pack | 2.3% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-03 10:57 UTC (latest tip update)