# Catalans Dragons v Hull FC — Super League Round 24 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 26 – 27 Hull FC

_Hull FC pip Catalans Dragons by a point._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 61% / Hull FC 39% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 23 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Charlie Staines (17' Tipped ⚡), Kruise Leeming (37'), Edenn Rogers-Smith (45'), Leo Darrelatour (52') · Hull FC: Logan Moy (2' 1st), Lewis Martin (12'), Harvie Hill (62'), Aidan Sezer (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 61% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 24 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 Aug 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 3 Oct 2026, 08:57 pm_

Catalans Dragons 26–27 Hull FC in Super League Round 24 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine errors against twelve, that's the number that won Hull FC the match. In a game decided by a single point, 27 to 26 at Stade Gilbert Brutus, that gap in ball control was the difference between Hull FC controlling the finish and Catalans Dragons chasing it.

Hull FC came out of the blocks hard. Logan Moy opened the scoring inside two minutes, Lewis Martin added another by the 12th, and by half-time the visitors led 14-12 despite Catalans hitting back through Charlie Staines and Kruise Leeming late in the half. Aidan Sezer's two penalty goals either side of the 24th and 32nd minutes did the quiet work of keeping Hull FC in front when the tries dried up.

Catalans then found five straight minutes of form that flipped the contest. Edenn Rogers-Smith crossed in the 45th, Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet added the extras and then a penalty goal, and Leo Darrelatour's try in the 52nd stretched it to 26-14. For about ten minutes it looked like a home win in the making.

Hull FC didn't blink. Harvie Hill scored in the 62nd, Sezer followed up with a try of his own in the 68th and converted both, and suddenly it was 26-26 with the clock almost gone. That's a 12-point turnaround inside seven minutes to snatch a game that looked lost.

The stat sheet backs up how it happened. Hull FC ran for 1,320 metres to 1,194, broke the line five times to three, and racked up 38 tackle busts against 31. Catalans actually offloaded more, 17 to 9, which tracks with a backline rated well clear of Hull FC's, 1123 to 852. But all that width and off-the-ball skill couldn't outweigh a dozen handling errors, most costly in a match with 1-point margins where field position swings games completely.

Discipline mattered too. Hull FC gave away six penalties to Catalans' seven, a small edge but the kind that adds up when three of Catalans' four tries came from the back three finishing off pressure Hull FC's forwards, rated 763 to 870, were otherwise second-best at creating.

Form lines suggested this one could go either way. Hull FC arrived averaging 20.8 points a game against Catalans' 15.6, but conceding more too, 24.8 to 30.4, and their last-five run had just turned over with a win after four losses. Catalans had been leaking points at an average margin of minus 14.8, the shakier outfit on paper, and that showed up when their discipline and ball security cracked in the closing stages.

Alphr's model had Catalans a 61% favourite and picked the margin almost perfectly, Catalans by 0.7 against the reality of Hull FC winning by exactly one. Right about how tight it would be, wrong about who'd be left standing. Hull FC covered the 4.5-point line with room to spare, and on a day where nine errors beat twelve, that's about as honest a scoreline as you'll see.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1,194 | Run metres | **1,320** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 31 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| **17** | Offloads | 9 |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 61% prediction for Catalans Dragons, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Catalans Dragons by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The model went 2/17 on this match. Hull FC covered the 4.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (35/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 7 · Hull FC 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 61.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +4.5 — model probability 61.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 61.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 61%, but Hull FC stay live at 39%.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | -4.0pts |
| 1159.0m | Run Metres | 1353.6m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 304.8 | Tackles | 315.6 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R19 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L · R23 L | 15.6 |
| Hull FC | R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W · R23 L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Hull FC | 24 – 20 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull FC | 22 – 26 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 34 | Hull FC |
| 2025 | R1 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 24 | Hull FC |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull FC | 4 – 24 | Catalans Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 13th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.09 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.3 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.91/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) | 1.09/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.65/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.7/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.04/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.74/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.87/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 9th) | 0.87/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 22 | 3 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 107m/g | 90m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 55 | 41 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 516m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 84% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 22 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 247m/g | 294m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 92% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · 2nd Rows 0.4/g (lg 0.3) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 10 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 3/10g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 2 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 4/9g | 39% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/18g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/16g | 19% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 13/21g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 8 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 14% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Edenn Rogers-Smith | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 13 | Alrix Costa | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/59g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/27g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Giovanni Descalzi | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 11 in 15g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·3·1) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Davy Litten | CE | 10 in 18g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Arthur Romano | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 9/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 2/4g | 54% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ligi Sao | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/19g | 5/7g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1314 vs 1307), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.57). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1307 · Hull FC 1314 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 30.8% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 27.9% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | ELO Difference | 11.3% | — |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 2.6% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 2.2% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-03 10:57 UTC (latest tip update)