# Warrington Wolves v York Knights — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Warrington Wolves v York Knights?

Alphr's Super League model makes Warrington Wolves a clear 69% favourite over York Knights in Round 23. Predicted result: Warrington Wolves by 7 in a low-scoring game (45 total, under the 51.5 line). **Confidence: High.** York Knights are stronger on paper, but ELO Difference and Halves Control tip the model to Warrington Wolves. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Cody Hunter leads at +39.7% edge.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.13 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Warrington Wolves v York Knights
Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 69.3%
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +18.5 — model probability 69.3%
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 69.3%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 7 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Overview

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 69% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 280 ELO points clear, 1621 to 1341. Form leans Warrington Wolves's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for York Knights.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Cody Hunter — model probability 61.5%
- Denive Balmforth — model probability 37.9%
- Nikau Williams — model probability 37.0%
- Ewan Irwin — model probability 33.6%
- Jon Bennison — model probability 48.9%
- Mark Nofoaluma — model probability 48.9%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Cody Hunter — model probability 17.1%
- Jon Bennison — model probability 12.0%
- Mark Nofoaluma — model probability 12.0%
- Albert Hopoate — model probability 10.2%
- Matthew Ashton — model probability 12.2%

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1404.4m | Run Metres | 1184.0m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 319.2 | Tackles | 306.0 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W | 30.8 |
| York Knights | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 22.4 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Warrington Wolves win, around 26–19 (total ~45 — under the 51.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Cody Hunter (17.1%, +13.8% edge over market), then Matthew Ashton (12.2%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 51.5 line (model projects 45).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r23-warrington-wolves-v-york-knights
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-13 10:30 UTC (latest tip update)