# Warrington Wolves v York Knights — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 30 – 10 York Knights

_Warrington Wolves run down York Knights._

Half time: 18 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 69% / York Knights 31% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (8'), Sam Stone (26'), Ewan Irwin (33' Tipped ⚡), Danny Walker (51'), Arron Lindop (66') · York Knights: Paul McShane (1' 1st), Jonathan Bennison (19' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 69% | Won |
| York Knights | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 08:27 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 02:09 am_

Warrington Wolves 30–10 York Knights in Super League Round 23 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six line breaks to York Knights' two. That was the clearest difference as Warrington Wolves defeated York Knights 30–10 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. A game of chances, and the Wolves took theirs. Line breaks don't guarantee points, but with those odds, the scoreboard usually follows.

Warrington Wolves led 18–10 at half-time. They extended this gap in the second half. Paul McShane's try in the first minute had put early pressure on Warrington, but York couldn't maintain it. Jonathan Bennison added their second try, but that was as good as it got for the Knights. Given their lower positional ratings in key areas, York were always up against it. They couldn't match the Wolves' firepower, particularly in the halves and forwards.

Ewan Irwin was pivotal for Warrington, converting four tries and adding two penalty goals. His try in the 33rd minute helped secure a lead that would only grow. The Wolves' strengths in the halves showed, exploiting gaps with clinical precision. Tackling was another area of contrast: 29 tackle busts for Warrington against 15 for York. More missed tackles mean more ground given, and Warrington were happy to take what was offered.

Errors played their part too. Warrington were guilty of handling mistakes, with 12 to York's 9. But York's discipline let them down, conceding 9 penalties to Warrington's 3. When you're trailing in a game, giving away territory does more harm than a loose carry ever could. Warrington's discipline in that aspect helped stem the rare Knights' advances.

Offloads were in York's favour, demonstrating their intent to keep the ball alive. They managed 10 to Warrington’s 4, crafting moments of opportunity that weren't quite capitalised on. But offloads alone don't win matches, as Warrington's ability to break the line showed.

The pre-match model read the Wolves as strong favourites, and they delivered, just with a heavier margin than the model's 6.6 points. A correct call on the total score being under 51.5 was a rare highlight for Alphr’s predictions in a weekend where the numbers largely didn't fall our way. Warrington were tipped at a 69% probability, and their performance justified that confidence.

In terms of recent form, Warrington came in with three wins from five; York with two from the same stretch. Warrington's higher points average and stronger defensive record played out in this match too. They lived up to their run metres average with 1,409, outstripping York's 975 comfortably. Those numbers don't lie: possession and territory put weight on the other side's defence.

Warrington Wolves showed their strength in attack and control in defence. York Knights couldn't match that standard, their chances thwarted by Warrington's tight lines and swift breaks. It was a match where runs turned into tries, and Wolves showed why they were expected to win.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,409** | Run metres | 975 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **29** | Tackle busts | 15 |
| 4 | Offloads | **10** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 12 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 40, within 5 points. Warrington Wolves led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (39/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · York Knights 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 69.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +18.5 — model probability 69.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 69.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 7 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 69% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 280 ELO points clear, 1621 to 1341. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for York Knights.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1404.4m | Run Metres | 1184.0m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 319.2 | Tackles | 306.0 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W | 30.8 |
| York Knights | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W · R22 L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Warrington Wolves lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | York Knights | 30 – 38 | Warrington Wolves |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.95 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 11th there (2.55 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.45 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 4th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.76/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.64/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.95/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.55/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 0.77/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 11 | 11 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 179m/g | 95m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 39 | 29 · 60 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 386m/g | 427m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.6/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 87.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 6 | 11 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 307m/g | 306m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.68/g (lg 0.25) +172% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.21) +71% · 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.3) +67%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.91/g (lg 0.99) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 29/56g | 44% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 12 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/10g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 21/47g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.50 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 13/44g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 8 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/64g | 6% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/31g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 16/72g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Paul McShane | 5/8 | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/22g | 0/7g | 4% | — | 🏉 1' |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ata Hingano | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/6g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 6 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/31g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Thompson | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Foster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1621 · York Knights 1341 · ELO difference: 280 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 50.4% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Halves Control | 12.5% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 5.8% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 4.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.4% | York Knights |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 2.3% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 16:09 UTC (latest tip update)