# Wakefield Trinity v St Helens — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 16 – 46 St Helens

_St Helens roar back to march all over Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 48% / St Helens 52% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 16 Aug, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Tyson Smoothy (6' 1st), Isaiah Vagana (11'), Jack Sinfield (34') · St Helens: Tristan Sailor (23'), Lewis Murphy (27'), Lewis Murphy (47'), Billy Keeley (63'), Tristan Sailor (68'), Jake Davies (73' Tipped ⚡), Tristan Sailor (76'), Jake Davies (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 52% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 Aug 2026, 08:30 am · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:52 am_

Wakefield Trinity 16–46 St Helens in Super League Round 23 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model gave St Helens a slight edge with a 52% probability of winning, predicting a narrow 5.9-point gap. Instead, the Saints surged to a 30-point victory, defeating Wakefield Trinity 46-16. The prediction had St Helens in front, but the size of the win and the total points, 62 compared to the predicted 46, exceeded the model’s expectations.

Wakefield Trinity entered the match with stronger recent form, boasting four wins in their last five games compared to St Helens' single victory. The model rated Wakefield's total team strength higher at 1684 against St Helens' 1413. Early play supported this, as Wakefield took a 16-12 lead at half-time. They opened the scoring with a try from Tyson Smoothy in the 6th minute, followed by tries from Isaiah Vagana and Jack Sinfield. At that stage, the numbers seemed to align with the on-field action.

However, rugby can be unpredictable. In the second half, St Helens came alive, scoring 34 unanswered points and leaving Wakefield behind. Tristan Sailor was unstoppable, securing a hat-trick of tries, while Lewis Murphy crossed twice. Billy Keeley and Jake Davies, who also scored twice, added to the pressure. Jackson Hastings contributed by converting six tries, turning Wakefield's early success into a distant memory.

St Helens compensated for their lack of recent form with execution and discipline. Despite Wakefield's advantage in offloads (8 to 3), St Helens' superiority in the backline and halves proved decisive. Wakefield had a slight edge in tackles, but St Helens broke through 39 tackles compared to Wakefield's 28, highlighting the visitors' class in the backs. The Saints committed only eight errors to Wakefield's 13, which was crucial. Handling and accuracy in key moments made the difference.

Wakefield had their moments, achieving five line breaks, but St Helens edged them with six. The Saints' backline, with a significant 1037 rating compared to Wakefield's 715, showed its strength when it mattered. In run metres, St Helens' 1,511 outpaced Wakefield's 1,122, maintaining constant pressure.

Discipline played a role, with St Helens conceding one less penalty than Wakefield, 5 to 6. This focus kept them in control during the chaotic second half. These margins are easy to overlook, but in a game influenced by momentum, they were crucial.

Alphr’s model got some predictions right, like St Helens covering the 12.5-point line. However, the dramatic comeback and the margin of victory show how the model can sometimes underestimate explosive potential. Wins and misses, all part of the game. That’s the story of predictions versus reality, rugby remains as unpredictable as ever.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1,122 | Run metres | **1,511** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **39** |
| **8** | Offloads | 3 |
| 13 | Errors | **8** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 8 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 7/9 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 13 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 46. St Helens trailed 16–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–46. The model went 3/17 on this match. St Helens covered the 12.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 6 · St Helens 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 52.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +12.5 — model probability 52.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wakefield Trinity and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on St Helens at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Wakefield Trinity sit 271 ELO points clear, 1684 to 1413, so the model is backing St Helens against the ratings gap. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for St Helens.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Halves Control, Rest Days and Venue Advantage. The margin model has St Helens by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 33.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Margin | -13.6pts |
| 1411.6m | Run Metres | 1069.8m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 310.2 | Tackles | 308.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 30.4 |
| St Helens | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | St Helens | 18 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R21 | Wakefield Trinity | 4 – 34 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R7 | St Helens | 26 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R3 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | St Helens |
| 2023 | R24 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 32 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 12th there (1.41 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 6th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Murphy, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 6th) | 0.95/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.64/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.73/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.55/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.09/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 7 | 13 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 135m/g | 206m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 89.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 58 · 37 | 44 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 453m/g | 469m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 14/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 18 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 370m/g | 321m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.2) -10% · Wingers 0.86/g (lg 0.99) -13% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.3) -17%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.25) +28% · Centres 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 8/9g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 9 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 6/19g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 3/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Sinfield | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/25g | 2/22g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/9g | 13% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/3g | 3/18g | 14% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/21g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 2/11g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| 3 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 23' 68' 76' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 27' 47' |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Harry Robertson | HB | 7 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Shorrocks | HK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Davies | 2R | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 78' |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Jacob Host | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | William Keeley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1684 · St Helens 1413 · ELO difference: 271 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 40.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 26.2% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Halves Control | 8.4% | St Helens |
| 4 | Rest Days | 5.6% | St Helens |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.2% | St Helens |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 3.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — St Helens predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:52 UTC (latest tip update)