# Wakefield Trinity v St Helens — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Wakefield Trinity v St Helens?

Alphr's Super League model rates St Helens a narrow 52% favourite over Wakefield Trinity in Round 23 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: St Helens by 6 in a low-scoring game (46 total, under the 46.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** St Helens lead on Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and Rest Days. The edge is on the St Helens line at +30.7%.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.13 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Wakefield Trinity v St Helens
Sun, 16 Aug, 02:30 am AEST · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 52.4%
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +12.5 — model probability 52.4%
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 52.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Overview

Line ball between Wakefield Trinity and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on St Helens at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 271 ELO points clear, 1684 to 1413. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for St Helens.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Halves Control, Rest Days and Venue Advantage. The margin model has St Helens by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 33.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Margin | -13.6pts |
| 1411.6m | Run Metres | 1069.8m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 310.2 | Tackles | 308.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 L | 30.4 |
| St Helens | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 20.0 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring St Helens win, around 26–20 (total ~46 — under the 46.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 46.5 line (model projects 46).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-13 22:30 UTC (latest tip update)