# Toulouse Olympique v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 10 – 26 Huddersfield Giants

_Huddersfield Giants tower over Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 6 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 50% / Huddersfield Giants 50% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 16 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Brendan Hands (9'), Mathieu Jussaume (73' Tipped ⚡) · Huddersfield Giants: Sam Halsall (5' 1st), Sam Halsall (20' 1st), Joe Greenwood (26'), Connor Wrench (35')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 50% | Lost |
| Huddersfield Giants | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 Aug 2026, 08:30 am · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:52 am_

Toulouse Olympique 10–26 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 23 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique showed some promise but ultimately fell short against Huddersfield Giants, losing 26-10 at Stade Ernest Wallon. They matched Huddersfield in line breaks, with both teams making four, and Brendan Hands' early try levelled the scores at 6-6. However, Toulouse struggled with ball handling, committing 14 errors compared to Huddersfield's 9. This lack of control hindered their ability to maintain pressure and build sustained attacks.

Despite having a slight edge in offloads, Toulouse couldn't capitalise on these opportunities. Their discipline was also slightly off, conceding seven penalties to Huddersfield's six. These small margins made a difference, forcing Toulouse to spend more time defending rather than attacking. Huddersfield's cleaner play allowed them to control possession and dictate the game's pace.

Sam Halsall was instrumental for Huddersfield, scoring two tries within the first 20 minutes. His efforts set the tone for the Giants, with Joe Greenwood and Connor Wrench also crossing the line to extend their lead. By half-time, Huddersfield led 22-6, leaving Toulouse with a significant deficit to overcome.

Huddersfield's backline, rated higher than Toulouse's before the match, proved its worth. Their forwards also outperformed Toulouse, gaining more run metres and providing a solid platform for their backs. This forward dominance was crucial in maintaining their lead and keeping Toulouse at bay.

Toulouse didn't give up, with Mathieu Jussaume scoring a late try to give the home fans something to cheer about. However, Huddersfield's defence held firm, and George Flanagan's late penalty goals ensured the Giants maintained a comfortable lead. These penalties were more about securing the win than needing extra points.

Alphr's model predicted a close match, expecting Huddersfield to win by a narrow margin. While the model got the winner right, it underestimated Huddersfield's dominance, as they secured a 16-point victory. The predicted combined total of 45 points was accurate, reflecting the game's scoring pace.

Huddersfield Giants, riding a wave of recent victories, demonstrated their form by effectively converting opportunities into points. They outmanoeuvred Toulouse at crucial moments, showcasing their ability to capitalise on errors. For Toulouse, the focus will be on reducing handling errors that gave Huddersfield too many chances to exploit.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 1,219 | Run metres | **1,302** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **35** |
| **4** | Offloads | 3 |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/2 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 14 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Huddersfield Giants to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 16 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. Huddersfield Giants covered the 3.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 7 · Huddersfield Giants 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Huddersfield Giants to win — model probability 50.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants +3.5 — model probability 50.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Huddersfield Giants 1-12 — model probability 50.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Huddersfield Giants by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Toulouse Olympique and Huddersfield Giants. The model can't split them, landing on Huddersfield Giants at 50%. The ratings say otherwise: Toulouse Olympique sit 140 ELO points clear, 1435 to 1294, so the model is backing Huddersfield Giants against the ratings gap. Form leans Huddersfield Giants' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Toulouse Olympique.

On paper Toulouse Olympique shade it, ahead on 3 of 5 factors including ELO Difference, Venue Advantage and Halves Control. The model still sides with Huddersfield Giants, which says Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Huddersfield Giants by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 26.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1065.8m | Run Metres | 1348.8m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 283.8 | Tackles | 316.6 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R18 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 22.0 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Huddersfield Giants lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Huddersfield Giants | 16 – 36 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R13 | Huddersfield Giants | 17 – 16 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R1 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 42 | Huddersfield Giants |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.18 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 12th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 13th there (1.41 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.64/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 8th) | 1.41/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.68/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.41/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 12 | 8 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 124m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 61 | 40 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 542m/g | 499m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 80% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 13 | 11 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 322m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.2) +70% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.5) +50% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.5) +82% · Wingers 1.68/g (lg 0.99) +70% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.06) +50%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 6 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Mathieu Jussaume | CE | 13 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·0·2·3·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 2/12g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/8g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 7% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 1/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Louis Grossemy | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Lambert Belmas | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 8 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 2 | Taane Milne | WG | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 10 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 5 | Samuel Halsall | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 5' 20' |
| 6 | Adam Clune | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | George King | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Zane Dunford | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Hewitt | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Rushton | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Cole Geyer | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Tristan Powell | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Greenwood | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 26' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1435 · Huddersfield Giants 1294 · ELO difference: 140 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 38.6% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 19.1% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Venue Advantage | 13.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Halves Control | 4.3% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 2.5% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:52 UTC (latest tip update)