# Leeds Rhinos v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Leeds Rhinos v Leigh Leopards?

Alphr's Super League model rates Leeds Rhinos a 64% favourite over Leigh Leopards in Round 23. Predicted result: Leeds Rhinos by 4 in a low-scoring game (38 total, under the 47.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Leigh Leopards are stronger on paper, but ELO Difference tips the model to Leeds Rhinos. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Brodie Croft leads at +26.2% edge.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.13 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Leeds Rhinos v Leigh Leopards
Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · AMT Headingley Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 63.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards +12.5 — model probability 63.5%
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 63.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 4 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 64%, but Leigh Leopards stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 146 ELO points clear, 1804 to 1658.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 3 of 4 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Pack. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Brodie Croft — model probability 73.9%
- Josh Charnley — model probability 53.1%
- Jake Connor — model probability 29.0%
- David Armstrong — model probability 46.6%
- James Mcdonnell — model probability 42.7%
- Umyla Hanley — model probability 27.2%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Brodie Croft — model probability 28.2%
- Josh Charnley — model probability 21.7%
- David Armstrong — model probability 14.7%
- James Mcdonnell — model probability 11.7%
- Harry Newman — model probability 8.2%

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 34.8pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1331.8m | Run Metres | 1196.0m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 281.0 | Tackles | 282.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 34.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L · R22 W | 22.8 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Leeds Rhinos win, around 21–17 (total ~38 — under the 47.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Brodie Croft (28.2%, +18.2% edge over market), then Josh Charnley (21.7%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 47.5 line (model projects 38).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-13 10:30 UTC (latest tip update)