# Hull KR v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Hull KR v Catalans Dragons?

Alphr's Super League model rates Hull KR a 61% favourite over Catalans Dragons in Round 23. Predicted result: Hull KR by 9 in a low-scoring game (43 total, under the 54.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Hull KR lead on ELO Difference, Halves Control and Forward Pack. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Zac Lipowicz leads at +25.0% edge.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.13 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Hull KR v Catalans Dragons
Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · Sewell Group Craven Park · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 61.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +24.5 — model probability 61.2%
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 61.2%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 9 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Overview

Hull KR are the call at 61%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 351 ELO points clear, 1665 to 1315. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Zac Lipowicz — model probability 37.9%
- Toby Sexton — model probability 35.4%
- Rhyse Martin — model probability 42.2%
- Tyrone May — model probability 39.4%
- Jai Whitbread — model probability 40.8%
- Nick Cotric — model probability 36.1%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Zac Lipowicz — model probability 8.3%
- Toby Sexton — model probability 7.6%
- Nick Cotric — model probability 7.8%
- Jai Whitbread — model probability 7.7%
- Joe Burgess — model probability 7.4%

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.6pts |
| 1387.4m | Run Metres | 1085.0m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 322.6 | Tackles | 298.4 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 27.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 14.8 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Hull KR win, around 26–17 (total ~43 — under the 54.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Zac Lipowicz (8.3%, +6.5% edge over market), then Nick Cotric (7.8%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 54.5 line (model projects 43).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r23-hull-kr-v-catalans-dragons
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-13 10:30 UTC (latest tip update)