# Hull KR v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 28 – 10 Catalans Dragons

_Hull KR outfox Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 61% / Catalans Dragons 39% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (5' 1st), Jez Litten (11'), Jack Broadbent (18' 1st), Joe Burgess (31' Tipped ⚡), Tyrone May (61' Tipped ⚡) · Catalans Dragons: Charlie Staines (22'), Tommy Makinson (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 61% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Aug 2026, 08:27 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 02:09 am_

Hull KR 28–10 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 23 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR winning by 8.6 with a combined total near 43. Hull KR won by 18, and the total landed at 38. Close enough on the total, well short on the margin, and that gap tells its own story about how one-sided the first half actually was.

Hull KR were 22-6 up at the break and never looked like giving it back. Jack Broadbent opened the scoring in the 5th minute, and by the 20th minute Hull KR had rattled off three converted tries without reply, Broadbent's second arriving in the 18th to make it 18-0. Jez Litten's try in between kept the scoreboard honest for anyone still checking. Catalans got on the board through Charlie Staines in the 22nd, but Joe Burgess restored the gap to 16 points by the 31st minute, and from there Catalans were chasing a lead that never got within two converted tries.

The model's 61% win probability was the easy call. Where the pre-match read undersold things was the size of the gap. Hull KR's forward pack rated only fractionally above Catalans' (796 to 797), essentially even, but the scoreboard didn't reflect an even contest at all. The line-break count explains why: Hull KR broke six times to Catalans' three, and turned that into first use of the ball.

Catalans' backline was rated the far stronger unit pre-match, 955 to 615, and their hooker rating dwarfed Hull KR's, 1000 to 773. On paper that's a mismatch running the other way. On the field, Catalans racked up 44 tackle busts to Hull KR's 18 and out-offloaded them 14 to 10, so the individual metres were there. What wasn't there was the finishing. All that broken-tackle work produced two tries across 80 minutes, both in the second half, Staines in the 22nd and Tommy Makinson late in the 71st. Plenty of go-forward, not enough execution when it counted.

Hull KR's discipline with the ball did the rest. Ten errors to Catalans' twelve isn't a huge split, but paired with the six-to-three edge in line breaks, it meant Hull KR's opportunities kept translating into points while Catalans left theirs on the field. Rhyse Martin's boot backed it up, three from three, and Tyrone May's try in the 61st, converted for 28-6, put it well beyond reach before Makinson's late score just tidied up the margin.

Form lines told you which side to trust here. Hull KR came in on a three-game winning run after opening the sample with two losses, averaging 27.2 points scored and conceding 18. Catalans arrived having won one of five, averaging 30.4 points conceded a game, and that leaky defensive number showed up again, just with an extra ten added to the concession column.

So the model got the winner and got the total within five points, but the 8.6-point margin read was never going to survive a first half like that. Catalans covered the 24.5 line, the under on 54.5 landed, and Hull KR did the rest of the job the ratings didn't quite see coming.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,411** | Run metres | 1,348 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 18 | Tackle busts | **44** |
| 10 | Offloads | **14** |
| **10** | Errors | 12 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 8.6 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. Catalans Dragons covered the 24.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (16/100) — penalties Hull KR 6 · Catalans Dragons 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 61.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +24.5 — model probability 61.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 61.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 9 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 61%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 351 ELO points clear, 1665 to 1315. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.6pts |
| 1387.4m | Run Metres | 1085.0m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 322.6 | Tackles | 298.4 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 27.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 L · R22 L | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 20 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R19 | Catalans Dragons | 6 – 34 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R14 | Hull KR | 68 – 6 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R22 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | Hull KR |
| 2024 | R16 | Hull KR | 14 – 15 | Catalans Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.86 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 12th there (2.64 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.91/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 2.86/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.68/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.64/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.91/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 7 | 17 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 197m/g | 104m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87% | 89.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 25 | 42 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 622m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.3% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 13 | 12 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 250m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.3) +37%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.3) -10% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.11) -27% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.5) -34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/8g | 14/29g | 32% | — | 🏉 5' 18' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 12 in 21g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/6g | 15/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.50 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 13/34g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Rhyse Martin | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 5/16g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 17 in 16g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 20/18g | 30/28g | 64% | 🎯 First Try $5.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 6 | Ryan Hampshire | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 7 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/6g | 9/33g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 3/50g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/15g | 12/58g | 28% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 10 | Sam Luckley | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/46g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 7/36g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 14/42g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 5/57g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Bill Leyland | INT | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Jnr | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 9 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 2 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 8/9g | 3/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Alrix Costa | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1665 · Catalans Dragons 1315 · ELO difference: 351 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 34.4% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 12.5% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Halves Control | 11.8% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 5.5% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.3% | — |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 2.9% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | Rest Days | 2.5% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 16:09 UTC (latest tip update)