# Hull FC v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Hull FC v Castleford Tigers?

Alphr's Super League model rates Hull FC a narrow 56% favourite over Castleford Tigers in Round 23 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Hull FC by 2 in a low-scoring game (39 total). **Confidence: Low.** Hull FC lead on ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Rest Days.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.13 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Hull FC v Castleford Tigers
Sat, 15 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · MKM Stadium · Round 23

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 55.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +15.5 — model probability 55.8%
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 55.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 2 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Overview

Hull FC are the call at 56%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 44%.

Hull FC own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Rest Days. The margin model has Hull FC by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Hull FC, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 40.4pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | -23.2pts |
| 1326.4m | Run Metres | 1064.4m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 317.8 | Tackles | 303.4 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 7.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 W | 21.2 |
| Castleford Tigers | R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 17.2 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Hull FC win, around 21–19 (total ~39).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the market line (model projects 39).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-13 10:27 UTC (latest tip update)