# Bradford Bulls v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 23 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 6 – 34 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors march past Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 30% / Wigan Warriors 70% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Sun, 16 Aug, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Andy Ackers (61') · Wigan Warriors: Jake Wardle (12' 1st Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (17' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (32'), Jake Wardle (46' 1st Tipped ⚡), Kian McDermott (54'), Taylor Kerr (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 70% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 34.6 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 23 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 Aug 2026, 08:30 am · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:52 am_

Bradford Bulls 6–34 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 23 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve errors. That number sums up Bradford Bulls' struggle as Wigan Warriors cruised to a 34–6 victory at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Wigan's efficiency and composure stood in stark contrast to Bradford’s self-inflicted wounds. Too many chances fluffed. Game control lost.

By half-time, Wigan was already up 16–0. Jake Wardle was decisive early on, opening the scoring in the 12th minute. Adam Keighran and Bevan French added their names to the score sheet, pushing Wigan further ahead. Bradford offered little resistance against a side playing with such cohesion.

Despite Bradford's poor ball control, they managed more offloads: 11 to Wigan's 5. But it wasn't enough to counter their twelve errors. Handing over possession so frequently, they couldn't keep the pressure on. It’s hard to gain ground when you keep giving it away. Wigan capitalised on these slip-ups, slicing through Bradford's defence with six line breaks to Bradford's two. Clean, clinical, and succinct.

Wigan's sharp attack is backed by numbers. They ran for 1,859 metres compared to Bradford’s 1,433. Their backs, rated at 934 against Bradford’s 702, showed their class with fluent movement and decisive breaks. Bradford's forward pack, although only slightly behind in ratings at 850 to Wigan's 892, couldn’t match Wigan's momentum.

Defensively, Bradford wasn't as outclassed as the scoreline might suggest. Both sides had a similar number of tackle busts, 28 for Bradford and 27 for Wigan. Yet, Wigan Warriors thrived in the halves battle, marginally edging out Bradford in ratings, 805 to 800, but significantly in execution.

Wigan also demonstrated discipline. Despite conceding more penalties, 8 to 5, they managed their errors better, only making 5 to Bradford's 12. This balance of aggression and control allowed them to maintain dominance throughout. The Warriors imposed their style and Bradford couldn’t counter it effectively.

Andy Ackers managed a try for Bradford in the 61st minute, converted by Luke Hooley. But it was little more than a consolation. Wigan responded swiftly, with Taylor Kerr crossing the line shortly after to re-establish their hold on the game. Harry Smith's reliable boot added conversions, maintaining pressure on Bradford.

Alphr's model had anticipated a Wigan win with a 70% probability, and a predicted margin of 34.6 points. The Warriors delivered on this expectation, producing a 28-point margin. The model's read matched the reality closely, indicating a solid understanding of both teams' dynamics.

In contrast, Wigan's form is strikingly consistent. With five straight wins, they average 32 points scored per game and only 14 conceded. Bradford, on the other hand, has dropped their last four matches, conceding an average of 32.8 points. They need a turnaround, and fewer errors, to change their fortunes.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,433 | Run metres | **1,859** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 27 |
| **11** | Offloads | 5 |
| 12 | Errors | **5** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 12 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 34.6 was reasonable against the actual 28-point result. Wigan Warriors led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 6/17 on this match. Wigan Warriors covered the 21.5-point line. The 25+ margin band call landed. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 5 · Wigan Warriors 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors -21.5 — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 25+ — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 35 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 70% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 459 ELO points clear, 1771 to 1311. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 2 of 3 factors including Recent Win Rate and ELO Difference. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 34.6, with the two sides combining for about 50. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 32.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| -18.0pts | Avg Margin | 18.0pts |
| 1072.4m | Run Metres | 1261.8m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 349.4 | Tackles | 293.4 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L · R22 L | 14.8 |
| Wigan Warriors | R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Wigan Warriors lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 14 | Bradford Bulls |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.73 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.91 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 10th there (1.23 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.41/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.18/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.86/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.95/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.59/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 10th) | 1.91/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 19 | 16 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 133m/g | 99m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 81.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 55 | 79 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 499m/g | 504m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 83% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 21 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 281m/g | 399m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.3) -20% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.27/g (lg 0.06) +350% · Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.11) +109% · Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.2) +105%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 25% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jayden Okunbor | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 3 | Waqa Blake | CE | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 5/8g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Dan Russell | CE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 13 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/9g | 6/11g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Christopher Atkin | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Joe Keyes | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/9g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jamie Gill | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 14 in 17g | 7/10g (0·1·0·3·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 24 in 21g | 13/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·3·2·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 46' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 66% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Taylor Kerr | HK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Kian McDermott | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joshua Cartwright | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Shea Connor | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1311 · Wigan Warriors 1771 · ELO difference: 459 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 41.3% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 36.1% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Halves Control | 16.6% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 35 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:52 UTC (latest tip update)