# Wigan Warriors v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 48 – 18 Toulouse Olympique

_Wigan Warriors put Toulouse Olympique to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 78% / Toulouse Olympique 22% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sun, 09 Aug, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Zach Eckersley (9' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (17'), Liam Marshall (23'), Noah Hodkinson (37' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (44' Tipped ⚡), Sam Eseh (50'), Jai Field (69' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (77') · Toulouse Olympique: Paul Ulberg (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Romeo Tropis (27'), Cesar Rouge (32')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 78% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.9 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 10:42 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:51 pm_

Wigan Warriors 48–18 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 22 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique showed early promise against Wigan Warriors at The Brick Community Stadium but ultimately fell 48–18. Paul Ulberg got Toulouse off to a flying start, scoring just three minutes in, with Cesar Rouge converting to give them an early 6–0 lead. They matched Wigan's intensity in the first half, levelling the score at 18–18 with tries from Romeo Tropis and Rouge. However, that was as close as they got.

Toulouse's main issue was their completion rate, which lagged at 67% compared to Wigan's 80%. This inconsistency in maintaining possession was costly, especially against Wigan's aggressive forward pack. Despite Toulouse's backs being rated at 852 against Wigan's 902, they couldn't convert that into enough scoring chances. Their error count was telling: 15 to Wigan's 8. It's tough to win when you keep handing the ball back to a clinical side like Wigan.

Defensively, Toulouse struggled, missing 31 tackles compared to Wigan's 20. Wigan broke through the line nine times, overshadowing Toulouse's three. However, Toulouse did have some positives. They averaged more metres per run at 6.5 compared to Wigan's 5.9 and managed more offloads, showing flashes of creativity.

Wigan's second-half performance was relentless. Zach Eckersley and Liam Marshall each scored two tries. Bevan French, Noah Hodkinson, Sam Eseh, and Jai Field also crossed the line. Harry Smith was flawless with the boot, converting all eight attempts. Wigan extended their lead from a narrow six-point margin at half-time to a commanding 30-point victory.

The Warriors' forward pack, rated at 910, dominated Toulouse's 746, controlling the game's tempo and physicality. Possession was nearly even at 51% to 49% in Wigan's favour, but their efficiency was the difference.

Alphr's model had predicted a Wigan win with a 78% probability, expecting a margin of just under 20 points. Wigan exceeded those expectations, reflecting their recent form with another comprehensive win. Their defence was as solid as their attack was prolific, missing fewer tackles and maintaining a higher tackle efficiency of 93.8% compared to Toulouse's 90.5%.

Wigan's form has been impeccable, winning their last five games and averaging a margin of 12.4 points. They carried that momentum into this match, demonstrating why they're on such a streak. For Toulouse, it's back to the drawing board to assess what went wrong in the second half and why their promising start faded.

In the end, the numbers told the story. Wigan Warriors outclassed Toulouse Olympique through cleaner execution and sharper attacks, turning a competitive first half into a decisive victory. That's the game.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| **1,121** | Run metres | 1,082 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 8/8 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 14 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 78% probability. The predicted margin of 19.9 was reasonable against the actual 30-point result. The game's 66 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 43. Wigan Warriors led 24–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 7/17 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 33.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (13/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 8 · Toulouse Olympique 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 77.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +33.5 — model probability 77.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — model probability 77.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 56.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 20 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 78% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 312 ELO points clear, 1759 to 1447. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Toulouse Olympique.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 19.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1268.4m | Run Metres | 1146.2m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 300.6 | Tackles | 266.6 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 25.6 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Toulouse Olympique | 16 – 36 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2022 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 52 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R16 | Wigan Warriors | 40 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R4 | Toulouse Olympique | 28 – 29 | Wigan Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.19 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.81/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.19/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 7 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 112m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.3% | 90.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 73 · 35 | 43 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 511m/g | 544m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 18.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 23 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 400m/g | 287m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.86/g (lg 0.5) +72% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.06) +67% · Wingers 1.62/g (lg 0.99) +64%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.3) -20% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·3·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 43/53g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 2 | Noah Hodkinson | WG | 14 in 14g | 13/10g (0·3·1·0·0·4·3·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 22 in 20g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·3·2·1) | 2/1g | 19/32g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 44' |
| 4 | George Oloughlin | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 50/69g | 30% | — | 🏉 23' 77' |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 14/70g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/3g | 55/50g | 62% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/53g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/29g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/28g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/3g | 2/33g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/57g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 50' |
| 16 | Kian Mcdermott | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 7% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 6% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Louis Grossemy | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | James Roumanos | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1759 · Toulouse Olympique 1447 · ELO difference: 312 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 59.9% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 6.2% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 6.2% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 6.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Rest Days | 4.6% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 4.5% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 3.4% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 20 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)