# Wakefield Trinity v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 22 – 24 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos surge back to stampede past Wakefield Trinity from 10 down._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 26% / Leeds Rhinos 74% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 08 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Isaiah Vagana (20' 1st), Caleb Uele (23'), Jayden Myers (28'), Jack Sinfield (42') · Leeds Rhinos: Brodie Croft (36' Tipped ⚡), James McDonnell (50' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Smith (53'), Chris Hankinson (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 74% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Aug 2026, 08:55 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:51 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 22–24 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 22 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos 24, Wakefield Trinity 22. This match was a study in contrasts: Leeds' ball control and tactical patience against Wakefield's raw running power. At The Diy Kitchens Stadium, it was the Rhinos' steadier hands that ultimately prevailed.

Wakefield Trinity started strong, racing to a 16-0 lead by the 28th minute. They leaned heavily on their forward pack, making the most of their 7.4 metres per run, a clear edge over Leeds' 6.2. Isaiah Vagana opened the scoring, setting the tone for a side that seemed to be riding high. But the momentum was misleading.

Leeds Rhinos, trailing 16-6 at half-time, played a more calculated game. They dominated possession with 58% and controlled 54% of the territory. Their 83% completion rate and just eight errors highlighted their discipline. This control kept them within striking distance, even when the scoreboard suggested otherwise.

The second half saw a shift. Wakefield's defence began to falter, missing 46 tackles to Leeds' 36. While tackle efficiency was similar, Leeds capitalised on Wakefield's lapses. They broke the line five times compared to Wakefield's three, seizing opportunities when they arose.

Individually, Jake Connor's kicking was crucial. His three successful conversions were vital. James McDonnell, Cameron Smith, and Chris Hankinson delivered key tries, with Hankinson's effort at 76 minutes turning the tide. Leeds, once ten points down, found themselves leading by two at the final whistle.

Wakefield's ambition was evident, with Vagana, Uele, Myers, and Sinfield all crossing the line. However, their inability to control errors, 11 in total, and Leeds' composure made the difference. Missed tackles and those errors proved costly for Wakefield.

Alphr’s model had predicted a Leeds win with a 74% probability, and it was right on the money. The predicted margin was close to the actual result, and the 1-12 margin band call was spot on. While the expected combined total was slightly off, Leeds' ability to win with less possession highlighted their effective game management.

In the end, patience outlasted aggression. Leeds Rhinos exploited more errors and broke through more missed tackles. Wakefield Trinity ran hard but couldn't maintain their early momentum. That’s how the game unfolded.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,228 | Run metres | **1,421** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 37 | Tackle busts | **47** |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 74% probability. The predicted margin of 8.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Leeds Rhinos trailed 16–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–24. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 6 · Leeds Rhinos 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 74.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos -3.5 — model probability 74.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 74.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 9 · Predicted total: 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 74% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 87 ELO points clear, 1788 to 1701. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leeds Rhinos.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 35. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 35.6pts | Avg Score | 40.0pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Margin | 26.0pts |
| 1473.6m | Run Metres | 1377.8m |
| 7.4 | Clean Breaks | 7.4 |
| 281.8 | Tackles | 263.6 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 W | 35.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 40.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Leeds Rhinos | 40 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 15 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2025 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 18 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 24 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.48 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 3rd there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.43/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 3.14/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.52/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.48/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 6 | 33 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 135m/g | 146m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 92.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 57 · 37 | 51 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 458m/g | 332m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.9/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 85.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 11 | 22 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 370m/g | 344m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 94% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Centres 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/9g | 36% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 9 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 3/7g | 6/18g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 3/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 15 in 13g | 13/10g (4·0·1·2·1·2·0·1·2·0) | 13/16g | 12/17g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 12% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 3/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 13% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Mike McMeeken | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/24g | 2/21g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 10% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 27% | — | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 23' |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 17g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 10/20g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/19g | 14% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Harry Newman | WG | 9 in 19g | 8/10g (2·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/16g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 24 in 20g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·3·2·1·1) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 76' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 11 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2·1) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/17g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Zak Lloyd | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 53' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1701 · Leeds Rhinos 1788 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 43.1% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 23.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 7.5% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Halves Control | 5.8% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 4.6% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Rest Days | 3.1% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 35 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)