# St Helens v Hull FC — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win St Helens v Hull FC?

Alphr's Super League model rates St Helens a 63% favourite over Hull FC in Round 22. Predicted result: St Helens by 4 in a high-scoring game (41 total). **Confidence: Medium.** Hull FC are stronger on paper, but ELO Difference and Forward Pack tip the model to St Helens.

_Alphr Super League Model v2026.08.04 · 71.1% head-to-head accuracy across 166 verified predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### St Helens v Hull FC
Fri, 07 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · The BrewDog Stadium · Round 22

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 63.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +14.5 — model probability 63.1%
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 63.1%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Overview

St Helens are the call at 63%, but Hull FC stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 165 ELO points clear, 1459 to 1294. Form leans St Helens's way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Hull FC.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with St Helens, which says ELO Difference and Forward Pack carry the most weight. The margin model has St Helens by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.6pts |
| 1147.2m | Run Metres | 1247.6m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 310.0 | Tackles | 322.2 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 19.2 |
| Hull FC | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 17.2 |

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring St Helens win, around 22–18 (total ~41).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the market line (model projects 41).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-04 21:36 UTC (latest tip update)