# St Helens v Hull FC — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 18 – 32 Hull FC

_Hull FC wear down St Helens._

Half time: 14 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 63% / Hull FC 37% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 07 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Lewis Murphy (1' 1st), Jack Welsby (32' Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (71' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Harvey Barron (6' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (24'), Harvey Barron (39' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Barron (46' Tipped ⚡), Cade Cust (49'), James Bell (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 63% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Aug 2026, 07:36 am · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:51 pm_

St Helens 18–32 Hull FC in Super League Round 22 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC turned the tide against St Helens with a decisive burst just after half-time, securing a 32-18 victory at The BrewDog Stadium. Locked at 14-14 at the break, Hull FC surged ahead with a quick succession of scores. Harvey Barron completed his hat-trick in the 46th minute, followed by a try from Cade Cust. Zak Hardaker's conversions pushed the score to 26-14, and Hull FC maintained control from there. St Helens managed a late try through Harry Robertson, but James Bell's 78th-minute try sealed the win for Hull FC.

Hull FC's efficiency with the ball was a standout factor. Despite St Helens having a slight edge in possession, Hull's completion rate of 78% outshone St Helens' 72%. Hull FC's attack was sharper, breaking the line six times compared to St Helens' four and busting 47 tackles to St Helens' 21. These numbers highlighted Hull's dominance in key moments.

Defensive struggles plagued St Helens, missing 47 tackles, a stark contrast to Hull's 21. This defensive disparity was crucial, as Hull's tackle efficiency stood at 93.2%, significantly higher than St Helens' 85.9%. The Saints' forward pack, rated stronger pre-match, couldn't translate that into defensive solidity.

Hull's backs rose to the occasion, outperforming their pre-match ratings. They ran for 1,360 metres at an average of 8.0 per run, compared to St Helens' 1,088 metres and 6.2 per run. Hull capitalised on St Helens' missed tackles, turning them into scoring opportunities.

Discipline was a mixed bag for Hull, conceding eight penalties to St Helens' six. However, they kept their composure when it mattered. The territory battle was evenly split at 50-50, but Hull's execution in key moments post-break was decisive.

For St Helens, this loss is a tough one to swallow. Alphr's model had them as 63% favourites, but Hull FC defied expectations. The predicted margin of 3.7 points in favour of St Helens was overturned by Hull's 14-point victory.

Harvey Barron's hat-trick was pivotal, with his early second-half try shifting the momentum firmly in Hull's favour. From that point, Hull FC controlled the game, never allowing St Helens to regain their footing.

The BrewDog Stadium witnessed a result that challenges predictive models. For Hull FC, it's a victory to relish. St Helens, meanwhile, will need to reflect on their performance and strategise for a comeback. They'll be analysing what went wrong and how to improve moving forward.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1,079 | Run metres | **1,347** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **48** |
| 3 | Offloads | **5** |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 6 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 4/7 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 12 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 63% prediction for St Helens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. Hull FC covered the 9.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties St Helens 6 · Hull FC 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 63.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +9.5 — model probability 63.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 63.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 63%, but Hull FC stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 165 ELO points clear, 1459 to 1294. Form leans St Helens' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Hull FC.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has St Helens by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.6pts |
| 1147.2m | Run Metres | 1247.6m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 310.0 | Tackles | 322.2 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 19.2 |
| Hull FC | R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 24 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R23 | St Helens | 16 – 10 | Hull FC |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull FC | 6 – 13 | St Helens |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 58 – 0 | Hull FC |
| 2024 | R20 | Hull FC | 6 – 46 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 13th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Sironen, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the right edge: Super League's 12th-ranked right edge attack (0.76 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 11th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Barron, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.95/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.05/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 6th) | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.76/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 3 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 207m/g | 93m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 38 | 35 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 471m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 84.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 12 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 322m/g | 289m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18%
**Who scores on St Helens** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.3) -13% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.21) -14% · Wingers 0.82/g (lg 0.99) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 36/67g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 35% | — | — |
| 3 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 15/22g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Davies | CE | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/9g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/8g | 48% | — | 🏉 1' |
| 6 | Harry Robertson | 5/8 | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 8/19g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Humphreys | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 12/62g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | William Keeley | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/14g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.50 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | George Whitby | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Host | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 39' 46' |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 3/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 1/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 52% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 15/47g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/38g | 6% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 15 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Arthur Romano | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1459 · Hull FC 1294 · ELO difference: 165 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 48.1% | St Helens |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 26.2% | St Helens |
| 3 | Halves Control | 6.9% | St Helens |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 4.9% | St Helens |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 3.8% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Rest Days | 3.6% | Hull FC |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — St Helens predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)