# Leigh Leopards v York Knights — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 22 – 14 York Knights

_Leigh Leopards hunt down York Knights._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 81% / York Knights 19% · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Sat, 08 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (7' Tipped ⚡), Joe Ofahengaue (23'), Andrew Badrock (47'), David Armstrong (63' Tipped ⚡) · York Knights: Jonathan Bennison (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jonathan Bennison (32' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jonathan Bennison (72' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 81% | Won |
| York Knights | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Aug 2026, 08:55 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:51 pm_

Leigh Leopards 22–14 York Knights in Super League Round 22 at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights couldn't quite match the Leigh Leopards in a 22-14 defeat at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. They started strong, with Jonathan Bennison opening the scoring early and managing a hat-trick by the end. Despite Bennison's efforts, the rest of the Knights struggled to capitalise on their opportunities.

York's completion rate of 81% showed they could hold onto the ball when they had it, but they only managed 41% possession. They committed just six errors, a commendable stat compared to Leigh's 13, but without more territory control, it wasn't enough. York covered only 42% of the field, while Leigh racked up 1,461 run metres, keeping York on the back foot.

Leigh capitalised on their territorial advantage, using their superior backline and halves to control the pace. Four different scorers for the Leopards, including Josh Charnley and Joe Ofahengaue, exemplified their depth in attack. Leigh's halves were rated at 1,117 compared to York's 840, highlighting the gap in creative and end-of-set options that York couldn't fill.

York's tackle efficiency of 89.3% was decent, but it paled next to Leigh's 91.1%. This was evident in the 44 missed tackles by York, nearly double what the Leopards allowed. Those misses invited pressure, especially once Leigh's Andrew Badrock and David Armstrong began to exploit the tiring defence.

Leigh's possession dominance was complemented by their physicality. They made 44 tackle busts, aggressively moving through the York line. Offloads at 8 to York's 4 kept the plays alive, placing York under continual pressure. The penalty count also favoured the home side, with Leigh conceding just 4 to York's 7, keeping the Knights further behind.

The model had pegged Leigh to win, giving them an 81% probability with a predicted 15.1-point margin. While the Knights managed to cover the 22.5-point line, Leigh’s final 8-point victory was within reason. The total score prediction of 40 came close, with the actual combined tally ending at 36, just four points shy.

Recent form hinted at the possibility of a closer match than the ratings suggested. York's last-five run of WWLLW came off the back of an average score of 26.8 points per game, compared to Leigh's 23.2. However, Leigh's defensive stats were stronger, conceding just 15.6 points on average, which proved decisive in holding York to 14.

In the end, the Knights showed resilience but lacked the extra spark needed to overcome the deficit. Leigh, with their well-rounded performance, validated their standing as the stronger side in this matchup. York may take some solace in Bennison's hat-trick and the knowledge of where they need to tighten up for next time.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,515** | Run metres | 1,087 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **36** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 11 | Errors | **8** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 11 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 81% probability. The predicted margin of 15.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 36, within 4 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 22.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 4 · York Knights 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 81.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +22.5 — model probability 81.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 13-24 — model probability 81.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 15 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 81% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 302 ELO points clear, 1650 to 1349. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for York Knights.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Venue Advantage and Halves Control. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 15.1, with the two sides combining for about 40. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 1210.0m | Run Metres | 1247.4m |
| 4.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 283.8 | Tackles | 289.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W · R21 L | 23.2 |
| York Knights | R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leigh Leopards lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | York Knights | 6 – 18 | Leigh Leopards |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Charnley, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.43 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 9th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.57/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.48/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 9th) | 2.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.57/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.81/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 10 | 11 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 121m/g | 96m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 31 | 29 · 57 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 502m/g | 431m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 87.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 8 | 11 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 389m/g | 309m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 91.5% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.67/g (lg 0.25) +168% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.21) +81% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.3) +73%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leigh Sports Village Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 10 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/9g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Andrew Badrock | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 11% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 22 in 18g | 17/10g (2·2·1·3·0·3·4·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 8/8g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 19% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 41% | — | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Louis Brogan | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Gareth O'Brien | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Isaac Liu | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 32' 72' |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Paul McShane | HB | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ata Hingano | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 6 in 21g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 6 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Thompson | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jesse Dee | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1650 · York Knights 1349 · ELO difference: 302 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 57.4% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Venue Advantage | 9.1% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Halves Control | 7.5% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 4.5% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.2% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Rest Days | 2.9% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)