# Castleford Tigers v Hull KR — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 0 – 44 Hull KR

_Hull KR put Castleford Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 48% / Hull KR 52% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 08 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: none · Hull KR: Jez Litten (10' 1st), Tom Davies (25' Tipped ⚡), Tyrone May (45' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (50' Tipped ⚡), Peta Hiku (53'), Tyrone May (56' Tipped ⚡), Tom Davies (65' Tipped ⚡), Rhyse Martin (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 52% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 44 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Aug 2026, 08:55 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:51 pm_

Castleford Tigers 0–44 Hull KR in Super League Round 22 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, Castleford Tigers were trailing Hull KR by just ten points, with the score at 0-10. The game seemed within reach. But the second half told a different story. Hull KR surged ahead, ultimately securing a 44-0 victory at The OneBore Stadium. Jez Litten opened the scoring for Hull KR, and by the end, they had crossed the line eight times through Litten, Tom Davies, Tyrone May, Joe Burgess, Peta Hiku, and Rhyse Martin.

In the first half, Castleford matched Hull KR in possession, each holding the ball 50% of the time. They even had a slight edge in territory, 54% to 46%. However, these advantages didn't translate into points. Hull KR, on the other hand, capitalised on their opportunities, boasting a higher completion rate of 88% compared to Castleford's 80%.

Castleford's defensive stats were puzzling. They had a higher tackle efficiency at 95.7% compared to Hull KR's 93.0% and missed fewer tackles, 16 to Hull KR's 26. Yet, Castleford failed to make any line breaks, while Hull KR managed four. Despite being solid defensively on paper, Castleford couldn't stop Hull KR from scoring.

Discipline-wise, Castleford conceded fewer penalties, just three compared to Hull KR's five. This made Hull KR's performance even more noteworthy. Despite making more errors, nine to Castleford's six, Hull KR were effective in key attacking phases. They converted their chances, leaving Castleford struggling to keep up.

Hull KR's positional strengths, particularly in the hooker position, were evident. Their hooker rating of 773 compared to Castleford's 608 played a significant role in directing play around the ruck, controlling the pace and direction effectively. This execution compensated for their lower ratings in the backs and halves.

Before the match, Alphr’s model predicted a Hull KR win with a 52% probability. While it got the winner right, it underestimated the margin, predicting a nine-point difference instead of the actual 44-point gap. The total score prediction was close, with the model expecting 45 points compared to the actual 44.

Castleford's recent form was concerning, with just one win in their last five games and an average of 41.2 points conceded per match. They needed a standout performance against Hull KR, who average 23.6 points per game. Unfortunately for Castleford, that performance didn't come.

By the end, Hull KR's second-half performance turned a potential contest into a rout. Castleford left the field without points or pride. Hull KR's dominance in run metres, with 1,622 compared to Castleford's 984, highlighted their superior play. They ran further, faster, and with intent. That's the story of the match.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,090 | Run metres | **1,702** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **25** | Tackle busts | 15 |
| **8** | Offloads | 7 |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 8 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 6/8 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.0 but the actual margin was 44 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Hull KR led 0–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 3 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 52.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +17.5 — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Castleford Tigers and Hull KR. The model can't split them, landing on Hull KR at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 304 ELO points clear, 1649 to 1345. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 3 of 5 factors including Recent Win Rate, Rest Days and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Hull KR by 9.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 41.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -22.8pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 1052.0m | Run Metres | 1293.4m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 296.8 | Tackles | 308.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 L | 18.4 |
| Hull KR | R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W · R21 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Hull KR | 50 – 6 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R15 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 48 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R1 | Hull KR | 19 – 18 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2024 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.1/g (def 10th) | 2.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.43/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.9/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 17 | 28 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 87m/g | 196m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 60 | 43 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 368m/g | 616m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 11.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 23 | 15 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 278m/g | 303m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.6% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.3) -10% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.11) -27% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.5) -34%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.3) +57% · Wingers 1.53/g (lg 0.99) +55%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/10g | 25% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tylor Sharpe | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | — |
| 6 | Jenson Windley | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 3 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/13g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.50 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Stimson | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack Brown | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | George Lawler | INT | 5 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 10 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/15g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 65' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 16 in 15g | 10/10g (2·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 18/16g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 6 | Ryan Hampshire | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 56' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1345 · Hull KR 1649 · ELO difference: 304 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 50.6% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Halves Control | 17.1% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 6.1% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Rest Days | 6.1% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.4% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)