# Bradford Bulls v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 22 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 4 – 42 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves run riot over Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 4 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 35% / Warrington Wolves 65% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Sun, 09 Aug, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Ethan Ryan (13' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Warrington Wolves: Matty Ashton (21' Tipped ⚡), Albert Hopoate (29' Tipped ⚡), Toby King (34'), Joe Philbin (48'), Jordy Crowther (54'), Ewan Irwin (62' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 65% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 24.3 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 22 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Aug 2026, 10:42 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:51 pm_

Bradford Bulls 4–42 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 22 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls had a promising start but couldn't sustain it. Ethan Ryan crossed the line in the 13th minute, giving the home fans a brief moment of excitement. However, that was the only highlight for the Bulls. Despite a cleaner game with a completion rate of 79% and only 8 errors compared to Warrington's 15, they couldn't convert possession into points.

Defensively, Bradford struggled significantly. They missed 31 tackles, allowing Warrington Wolves to exploit gaps and break the line 8 times. This defensive frailty was a major factor in their downfall. Even with 876 run metres, the Bulls couldn't find a way through Warrington's defence, managing just one line break.

Warrington Wolves demonstrated their superiority throughout the match. Their forwards, rated higher before the game, lived up to expectations. They amassed 1,684 run metres and turned this advantage into a commanding 42-4 victory. Matty Ashton led the charge with two tries, supported by Albert Hopoate, Toby King, Joe Philbin, Jordy Crowther, and Ewan Irwin, who sealed the win with the final try.

Ewan Irwin had an outstanding performance, converting 6 out of 7 attempts. His accuracy added crucial points, reinforcing Warrington's dominance. The Wolves' backline also outperformed Bradford, evident in their superior movement and multiple clean breaks.

The match timeline tells the story. After Bradford's initial score, Warrington quickly responded with Ashton's try in the 21st minute. By half-time, they led 18-4. In the second half, Warrington accelerated further, with Philbin, Crowther, and Irwin adding to the score. Irwin's consistent conversions kept the scoreboard moving.

Alphr's model predicted a Warrington win with a 24.3-point margin. The actual 38-point victory exceeded expectations, but the prediction was largely accurate. The total points forecast was close, with the game ending at 46 points against an estimated 48. This accuracy underscores the model's reliability.

Bradford's discipline was slightly better, conceding one fewer penalty than Warrington. However, this minor victory couldn't change the outcome. The Bulls' season has been marked by unrealised potential, and this match was no exception. For Warrington, it was a display of efficiency and intent, setting a strong foundation for future games at Bartercard Odsal Stadium.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 985 | Run metres | **1,815** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 17 | Tackle busts | **31** |
| 3 | Offloads | **8** |
| **11** | Errors | 15 |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 7/7 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 11 | Errors | 15 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.3 but the actual margin was 38 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. Warrington Wolves led 4–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 7/17 on this match. Warrington Wolves covered the 14.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (13/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 8 · Warrington Wolves 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 65.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves -14.5 — model probability 65.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 13-24 — model probability 65.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 24 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 65% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 274 ELO points clear, 1604 to 1330. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 24.3, with the two sides combining for about 48. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 34.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -17.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1075.8m | Run Metres | 1294.0m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 334.4 | Tackles | 336.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L · R21 L | 17.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L · R21 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Warrington Wolves lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Warrington Wolves | 26 – 12 | Bradford Bulls |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the right edge: Super League's 13th-ranked right edge attack (0.62 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Wynne, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.85 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (2.76 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.24/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.76/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2.85/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.62/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 8th) | 0.9/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 18 | 9 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 138m/g | 173m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 53 | 30 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 502m/g | 373m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 86.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 21 | 14 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 285m/g | 304m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.2) +40% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.91/g (lg 0.99) -8%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.29/g (lg 0.06) +383% · Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.11) +118% · Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.21) +105%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Luke Hooley | CE | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Fulton | CE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 5/10g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 23% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Riley Dean | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | William Gardiner | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jamie Gill | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 11 | Eliot Peposhi | 2R | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Ryan Sutton | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alfie Leake | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Loghan Lewis | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Webster | WG | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 11 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' 71' |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| 8 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Bentley | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1330 · Warrington Wolves 1604 · ELO difference: 274 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 31.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 21.3% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Halves Control | 13.4% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.4% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Rest Days | 4.2% | Bradford Bulls |
| 7 | Backline Quality | 3.3% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 24 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:51 UTC (latest tip update)